2023 is proving a tough ladder to predict, with confidence generally high on all eight of last season’s finalists. However, history says we will see two to three changes to the top eight.
Josh Jenkins has given his prediction for the three teams most likely to drop out of the eight, selecting Fremantle, Richmond and Grand Finalists Sydney.
On the Dockers, the former Crow is worried about the club in general following last year’s trade period.
“I’m not confident about all three, I was only confident about one – Fremantle,” Jenkins told SEN Breakfast.
“I read a lot into the Griffin Logue situation in that agent’s documentary. How can a player of his calibre not feel like he has an ongoing position in their best 22? There’s something beneath the surface there.
“He is, in my humble opinion, their best defender. If you said ‘we need a versatile, athletic, tall defender to play on the great key forwards, he would be my first pick (at Freo).
“Alex Pearce is injured a lot. Your best ability is your availability. Brennan Cox is a handy player, but he’s not as good as Logue.
“They don’t have a potent forward line, Fremantle and we’ve seen potent forward lines be very important in successful sides.
“They’ve got many, many unanswered questions in their forward line. I’ve got them out.”
On the Tigers, Jenkins is worried about their heavy reliance on aging key players.
“Jack Riewoldt is 34, he’s going to have to hold down key position. Trent Cotchin is about to be 33. Dustin Martin is 31 off the back of an indifferent season. Dylan Grimes is 31 and Tom Lynch has had his fair share of injuries and is 30,” he said.
“There’s not much beneath Lynch and Riewoldt in the forward half. If they lose one or both they’re in trouble.
“I’ve got Richmond out (of the top eight). It’s going to be tight. These teams might miss out on percentage.”
Jenkins is also concerned about how a young Swans team will bounce back from a Grand Final thrashing.
“Historical data would suggest the Sydney Swans will miss the eight,” he said.
“2017 Crows, thumped in a Grand Final then missed the eight. GWS after getting hammered in 2019 missed the eight. We’ve seen it happen a few times where teams get pummelled in a Grand Final and don’t recover.
“What are young players prone to doing? Be inconsistent, fluctuate, have dips in performance, they sometimes think they’re just going to get back there.”