Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne is concerned by Geelong’s start to the 2023 season.
Coming off a premiership, the Cats were expected to hit the ground running but have lost their opening two games going down to the Magpies by 22 points in Round 1 and the Blues by eight points in Round 2.
Hoyne says the main area for concern at the Cattery is their defence which is even more shocking considering they’re currently the best backline in the competition when it comes to one on one contests.
“I’m concerned with where they’re at,” Hoyne told SEN Sportsday.
“I’m purely concerned from a defensive point of view.
“Understandably people will throw back, and rightly so, that (Tom) Stewart is missing, (Jack) Henry is missing, (Jake) Kolodjashnij is missing and (Mitch) Duncan is missing from pretty much their back seven or eight for most of the year last year.
“But from what they’re doing from a defensive group in a one-on-one contest, there’s been no harder team to beat in a one-on-one contest than Geelong.
“Esava (Ratugolea) is holding up, (Sam) De Koning is holding up one on one, (Zach) Guthrie is (as well), so they’re doing their job one on one.”
With their one on one defence holding up, Hoyne explained that it’s Geelong’s defensive system that is breaking down and he had some alarming statistics to back up his concern.
“What’s falling down at the moment is the system perspective defensively,” Hoyne explained.
“What I’m talking about is Geelong since 2016, in terms of points against from turnover this has been their ranking for the best part of seven years - first, fourth, second, first, fourth, first, first.
“This year, they’re 17th. That’s the area of the game that’s alarming right now.
“That there is a combination of system, work-rate and poor skills. That’s where 60 per cent of scoring is coming from.
“Their work from a stoppage perspective at the moment is okay, but once it leaves that area, they’re getting left behind and they’re not able to defend it as they have for seven or eight years.”
While the Cats are missing vice-captain and star defender Tom Stewart, Hoyne doesn’t believe his loss has caused the issue as he also missed a significant period in 2022 which the Cats seemed to deal with.
"People will say, ‘Stewart is out at the moment and he’s their most important player’, well, Stewart was out for four weeks last year too,” Hoyne said.
“They won all four of those games against quality opposition in that period."
Already 0-2, Hoyne believes the Cats may even lose to the Suns on the Gold Coast on Sunday, labelling the game a 50-50.
“I think it’s close to a 50-50 game on the weekend against Gold Coast,” Hoyne said.
"If they lose against the Gold Coast, it’s going to be a story.
"I don’t think it should be a surprise if they do lose."
Despite his concern for Geelong, Hoyne wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Scott was able to turn things around given the club’s exemplary record.
Even though a rebound wouldn’t surprise Hoyne and many fans, he does believe the Cats should be under the pump more if this run of form continues.
“They should have extraordinary belief because of what they’ve done over the best part of 15/16 years,” Hoyne said.
“I understand that and I understand why everyone has got confidence in them, if they turn things around i”m not going to be shocked.
"I just think we should be treating this with more red flag type analysis than pushing it to the side like, ‘It’s only Round 2, they’re Geelong, they’ll be fine’.
“You’ve got to treat it for what it actually is.”
Geelong will be desperate to win their first game for the season when they meet Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium at 2:10 pm (AEDT) on Sunday.