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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Gather Round

2023-04-13T09:36+10:00

Football breaks new ground this weekend with the entire round of footy being played in South Australia.

Six matches will be played at Adelaide Oval, while two will be played at nearby Norwood Oval.

And on Saturday, footy heads to the Adelaide Hills for premiership points, as Brisbane and North Melbourne do battle.

It’s set to be an exciting weekend, headlined by Thursday night’s blockbuster between Adelaide and Carlton and Sunday evening’s clash between Collingwood and St Kilda.

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Adelaide vs Carlton

Thursday - 7.40pm - Adelaide Oval

Adelaide and Carlton kick off the inaugural Gather Round with a huge Thursday night clash at the Adelaide Oval.

Last time the teams met at the venue it was the Crows who upset the Blues by 29 points, the first loss of four for Carlton to end the season as they ultimately just missed out on finals.

Given the enormity of the last meeting looking back, the Blues will be desperate to make amends and go 4-1-0 on the season.

For Adelaide, they’re also coming off a win and with another victory here would see them go to 3-2 and well and truly set a base for their campaign.

While Carlton are above Adelaide on the ladder, the Crows have probably given more of a consistent effort across the season and will give themselves every chance of upsetting their fancied opponents.

The Blues though at their best are probably too strong for the Crows, and this game appears one that Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay could win off their own boots should they get on top of their opponents.

Conversely, if the Crows can nullify their influence even somewhat, their game is in good enough order around the ground to potentially salute at home.

Tip: Adelaide by 11 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Fremantle v Gold Coast

Friday - 5.10pm - Norwood Oval

While this match may not be box office in the eyes of some football fans, for the loser this game will all but end their season.

After coming into the campaign with so much excitement and promise, the Dockers have failed to deliver with their slow and stale ball movement leaving Justin Longmuir’s side a shadow of its 2022 self.

The “home” side will be without key forward Matt Taberner who will miss the match due to back soreness, but his absence may work in Fremantle’s favour as they look to reinvigorate their dysfunctional forward line.

Fremantle have flown midfielder Will Brodie, medium-forward Sam Sturt and mature age recruit Corey Wagner over to Adelaide as they “host” their first Gather Round match at Norwood Oval.

The Suns are a side that fans have long known to be full of talent and potential, but their inconsistent nature has once again left them with one win from four matches to start the season.

Star key forward Ben King can be forgiven for his quiet start to the year as he returns from an ACL injury, but Suns fans will be hoping that the former number six draft pick can rediscover his 2021 form and reignite the Suns season.

Gold Coast will take confidence in their ability from the fact that they defeated the reigning premiers a fortnight ago, but coach Stuart Dew will be sweating on the fitness of his captain Jarrod Witts who the Suns will need to subdue the influence of Fremantle’s star ruckman Sean Darcy.

The Dockers have struggled to score all season, but the potential additions of Michael Frederick, Brodie and Sturt may help them create a fast and dynamic forward line that their fans have been crying out for.

Tip: Fremantle by 12 points.

Marcus Beeck

Richmond v Sydney

Saturday - 8.10pm - Adelaide Oval

There is carnage on the injury front for both Richmond and Sydney.

The Tigers have lost key forward Tom Lynch, co-captain Toby Nankervis and the hard-tackling Jack Graham from last week’s close loss to the Western Bulldogs.

The Swans will be without defensive brothers Tom and Paddy McCartin as well as veteran forward Lance Franklin on the back of their narrow defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide.

This will be the second time in four seasons the Tigers and Swans have faced off on neutral territory after Richmond’s 34-26 snoozer triumph at the Gabba in 2020. Since then, the Swans have won two on the trot, the most recent being the dramatic six-point result at the SCG in Round 11 last year.

Sydney, who holds a 2-2 record, missed a golden opportunity to go 3-1 last week when enjoying 22 more inside 50s only to go down to the Power by two points.

Richmond faltered to 1-2-1 when conceding 16 more inside 50s and 29 scoring shots to the Dogs having played just one quarter of serious footy on the night. It was their second game in a row in the wet and the Friday forecast in Adelaide doesn’t look all that pleasant. The Tigers could have some sore bodies.

While Sydney has two major holes in defence, Richmond might just have too many key pieces missing overall to win this one.

The wounded Tiger has in the past been able to find a way to win with their backs to the wall, but you just get the feeling the Swans have the personnel required to get the job done on the Friday night of Gather Round.

Tip: Sydney by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

Brisbane v North Melbourne

Saturday - 1.10pm - Adelaide Hills

A snooze fest on paper at the start of the season, this clash has got an added sizzle after both sides’ starts to 2023.

North Melbourne aren’t the easy beats they’ve been in recent years and pushed Carlton a fair way on Good Friday last week. Alastair Clarkson’s men haven’t been beaten by more than 23 points over the first four rounds and in comparison, of the club’s 20 losses last year, only three were by less than that margin.

While North fans now know what to expect each week in terms of a hardened performance, the result of this contest likely rests with Brisbane.

Chris Fagan’s side is littered with stars, but you wouldn’t know it from the club’s losses against Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs this year.

At home however, it’s been a different story. Wins over fellow contenders Melbourne and Collingwood prove that Brisbane’s best can beat the best, meaning how this contest shapes up is probably up to the Lions.

Can Brisbane bring its Gabba form away from home? If yes, this could get ugly, but if not, the Roos are in with a chance.

Tip: Brisbane by 33 points.

Seb Mottram

Essendon v Melbourne

Saturday - 4.10pm - Adelaide Oval

Both the Bombers and the Demons head to Adelaide Oval for Gather Round with a 3-1 win/loss record.

The Demons have been completely faultless the last fortnight, smacking both Sydney and West Coast, results that have seen them claim outright favouritism for this year's premiership.

Along with their current form, Simon Goodwin's side has a strong recent record over the Bombers, beating them in four of the last five clashes.

As for Essendon, they head into this clash as big outsiders despite winning 80 per cent of their matches this year.

But are they playing that well?

Brad Scott's side have a great ability to fade in and out of games and against a side that has genuine superstars littered throughout their lineup, this won't bode well on Saturday night.

Expecting the likes of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Steven May and Bayley Fritsch to turn it on and give the Bombers a reality check.

Tip: Melbourne by 46 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7.50pm - Adelaide Oval

The Power and the Bulldogs find themselves in similar positions heading into Round 5.

Both clubs have had an up-and-down start to the season but are looking to build off the momentum of a big victory last week with a triumph in Gather Round.

For Port, their win over Sydney last round could prove to be a pivotal moment in their season, addressing plenty of their flaws in an impressive showing.

The Power had headaches on the defensive end to start the year, yet against the Swans they put together a hard-nosed performance, applying pressure like they hadn’t displayed all year which either solved or hid the other issues plaguing their approach.

Meanwhile the Bulldogs had a blue-collar victory of their own last week, outworking the Tigers at the ‘G to claim their second on the trot.

Like Port, the Dogs’ performance answered plenty of the questions surrounding the squad, with their dominance around the contested ball and clearance game taking the attention away from their talls and allowing them to play more freely.

With both teams seemingly putting their problems behind them, this clash looks to be one of the most intriguing of Gather Round.

After their dominant showing last week, the Bulldogs look to have the advantage through the midfield, yet Port certainly have the talent to match the pairing of Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore if their engine room can properly kick into gear.

On the other hand, the Power have the advantage on either end of the field, with their forwards looking more consistent through the season and their backline buoyed by the resurgence of Aliir Aliir.

Yet with the talent shared between the two lists, it wouldn’t be a shock to see this analysis flipped completely on its head come Saturday night.

Recent history reflects the parity of this matchup, with the two clubs alternating wins every match since 2018.

While the Bulldogs are more than capable of coming home from Adelaide with the win, Port will have the slight edge in front of a rapturous home crowd.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 8 points.

Jack Makeham

Geelong v West Coast

Sunday - 1.10pm - Adelaide Oval

Geelong is finally up and running this season, taking apart Hawthorn by 82 points after a slow start on Easter Monday.

With the AFL world heading to Adelaide this week, the Cats will take on a struggling West Coast outfit on neutral territory at Adelaide Oval in the first of a Sunday double header.

On paper this should be a relatively straightforward win for Geelong, purely because it’s hard to see West Coast stopping Jeremy Cameron in the form that he’s in.

The Eagles were brave in defeat to Melbourne last week considering their current injury crisis, but ultimately lost comfortably in the end and they could be in for another difficult day in Round 5.

Adam Simpson will be hoping to turnaround the club’s poor recent form away from Western Australia and spring a Gather Round surprise.

Tip: Geelong by 35 points.

Laurence Rosen

GWS v Hawthorn

Sunday - 3.20pm - Norwood Oval

It’s certainly not the drawcard of Round 5, but GWS and Hawthorn are under pressure to show some fight on Sunday.

Both the Giants and the Hawks are coming off losses despite leading at half-time. GWS conceded five straight goals heading into the final term to throw away any chance of victory, while Hawthorn’s capitulation needs no introduction after a 100-point second half for the Cats.

So this presents as a chance for either team to make a statement. Adam Kingsley’s side has been in every game this year and a 1-3 record isn’t reflective of where they sit, but crucial skill errors have continuously let the side down.

Combined with a lack of offensive arsenal over the last fortnight, and Kingsley will be looking for a high-scoring, polished performance against the Hawks.

But Sam Mitchell’s men played three brilliant halves of footy in the last two weeks and shouldn’t be underrated.

The main criticism – as it’s been every week - is finding where the goals come from. Tyler Brockman and Fergus Greene can’t be trusted to kick multiple goals every game, leaving Luke Breust and Dylan Moore as the only notable goal kickers.

If the Giants can shut down the Hawks brigade that bobs up every now and then, a win should be a formality.

Tip: GWS by 22 points.

Seb Mottram

Collingwood v St Kilda

Sunday - 4.50pm - Adelaide Oval

Who saw Collingwood versus St Kilda coming as a matchup of the year candidate? Not many, that’s for sure.

Craig McRae’s ultra-aggressive and attacking Magpies taking on the defensive general Ross Lyon and his St Kilda side that is the best in the competition at stifling ball movement.

Which system will win out on the neutral territory of the Adelaide Oval?

The key for Collingwood will be shutting down St Kilda’s small forwards. Jack Higgins, Mitchito Owens, Dan Butler, Mattaes Phillipou and Jade Gresham have combined for 33 goals, creating havoc after the Saints turn teams over.

On the flip side, will Ross the Boss send someone to put defensive work into Nick Daicos? Could someone like Marcus Windhager be given the responsibility on arguably the Brownlow Medal favourite to this point in the season?

St Kilda averages 418.5 disposals per game in 2023, with no other team above 400. They also lead the league for marks and will be hoping Rowan Marshall can dominate a ruck-less Pies and give them clearance control.

Collingwood looked disorganised against Brisbane, giving away 6-6-6 free kicks and seeming unsure who was required at centre bounces. With another week of training in the books, they will surely have sorted out the kinks.

This game feels like a litmus test, particularly for St Kilda. If they win, they will rightly be taken seriously among the league’s elite. And they’re every chance in what looms as the game of the round.

Tip: St Kilda by 9 points.

Nic Negrepontis

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