Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Last week we went 17/22 and we'll endeavour to go bigger again.
Here is what we consider certainties for the two Friday night games in Round 5: Fremantle v Gold Coast and Richmond v Sydney.
Fremantle v Gold Coast
Darcy to have 40 or more hitouts
Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy could be in for a fill-up against Gold Coast at Norwood Oval.
Already averaging 39 hitouts a game this season, Darcy should easily eclipse 40+ in this game with Suns ruckman Jarrod Witts out of the side.
While Ned Moyle looked strong in his first game for Gold Coast, Darcy should hold sway at the contest.
Add in the small dimensions of Norwood and potential wet weather, expect there to be plenty of stoppages and chances for the more robust Darcy to get his hands to the ball first.
Serong to have 25+ disposals
Caleb Serong is becoming a model of consistency for the Dockers.
With opposition attention typically heading Andrew Brayshaw’s way, Serong has quietly gone about his work to average 31 disposals a game in 2023.
Given his lowest mark came last week against Adelaide with 28 touches and his highest mark was 35 in the Derby against West Coast, expect Serong to again be prolific in this contest.
In potential wet conditions, Serong could be needed to find plenty of ground balls and contested possessions against a strong Suns on-ball unit.
Lachlan Geleit
Lukosius and King to combine for 3+ goals
It’s been a very slow start to the year for Gold Coast’s forward line.
The Suns are averaging the 3rd least points per game in the competition, one of the biggest reasons for their 1-3 record in the early goings.
Yet facing off against a Dockers side that also isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, there wouldn’t be a better time for the Suns to kick into gear.
Jack Lukosius has been up and down so far, booting five in Gold Coast’s Round 3 win, yet going goalless in two of the other three games.
Ben King has been much more consistent, kicking a goal in every game so far, while hitting the scoreboard multiple times in Round 2.
While neither is dominating right now, they should be able to combine for a respectable output in a must-win game for the Suns.
Rowell for 20+ touches and 5+ clearances
Aside from the blistering opening to his career, Matt Rowell’s start to 2023 has been some of the best footy he has played at the senior level.
The midfield bull has come out of the gates firing this season, averaging 21.5 touches through the first four games, a number which was lowered noticeably to 12 after being shut down by the iron defence of Ross Lyon and St Kilda last week.
Facing off against a Fremantle side which allows the fourth most disposals to its opponents, Rowell should find himself with plenty of opportunity to win the footy.
The clearances shouldn’t come as much of an issue for him either, having secured at least 5 in every game this season and winning the third most in the competition overall.
If Gold Coast are to get their season back on track, a strong Rowell showing in a big win would be pivotal.
Jack Makeham
Richmond v Sydney
Riewoldt to kick 2+ goals
Jack Riewoldt simply has to step up for Richmond on Friday night.
The veteran forward is back in the side after being managed last week and it couldn’t come at a better time with Tom Lynch (fractured foot) set for an extended stint on the sidelines.
While Riewoldt doesn’t have an overly flash record against Sydney in recent years, kicking three goals in his last three outings, the opportunity is there to improve that output given the Swans will be without defensive trio Tom and Paddy McCartin and Dane Rampe.
As one of Richmond’s main avenues to goal, the stage is set for Riewoldt to have a decent night out at the Adelaide Oval where he returned 2.2 against the Crows just a few weeks ago.
Martin to have 20+ disposals and kick 1+ goal
Dustin Martin has been playing an important role so far in 2023.
He is spending the majority of his time as a high forward, often used as the linkman between defence and attack, but did go through the middle at stages against the Bulldogs last week.
The Tigers star has had 23 touches in two of his three appearances so far this season, while he was on target for at least 20 before he was subbed out against Adelaide in Round 2 with hamstring awareness.
An undermanned Richmond team will need Martin to have a massive impact in the Friday night clash with the Swans.
Dusty has also kicked at least one goal in 18 of his last 19 games, so we’ll throw in one major for good measure.
Andrew Slevison
Chad Warner to have 25+ disposals and a goal
Chad Warner has remarkably become the most important cog to the Sydney Swans machine.
Warner dined out against Port Adelaide when his teammates largely struggled. He ended the night with 30 touches and two sensational goals including one on the run.
Expect him to deliver again on the Friday night stage at the Adelaide Oval.
Sydney's inside 50 scoring efficiency to be over 55%
The Swans were deplorable moving the ball forward against Port Adelaide in Round 4. The three-pronged attack of Lance Franklin, Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey struggled to work together with McDonald the only member to kick a major.
The Swans 67 inside 50s for just 19 scoring shots which equates to an efficiency of 40.3 per cent. Sydney was well below the league average for 2023 at 48.1 per cent and below their season average of 51.5 per cent.
You can bet the Swans have learnt their lesson and will be more methodical against Richmond when entering their attacking 50 and make the most of their opportunities.
Charles Goodsir