If Essendon wants to play finals in 2023, they must win four games on the trot and hit the bye at 8-5, according to Brad Johnson.
The Western Bulldogs great is anticipating that the Bombers will lose to Brisbane this weekend, but believes they have what it takes to hit the bye with full momentum.
This would require the Dons to break their 13-game losing streak to Richmond dating back to 2014, beat bottom sides in West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne, and then take down rivals Carlton.
“The 4B Bombers – Bombers Bounce Before Bye,” Johnson told SEN’s Sportsday.
“In my opinion, they’ll lose this week to Brisbane, but they must win all four games after that to play finals, I think. And not just play finals for the sake of it, build that confidence to have an impact.
“They’re playing good footy, the Bombers.
“Round 10 they play Richmond, Round 11 West Coast, Round 12 North Melbourne and Round 13 the Blues before the bye.
“At the bye they must turn 8-5. They have to.
“The reason I’m liking what they’re doing at the moment is their style of play is excellent.
“Are they good enough to play finals? I actually think they are. They just need to improve their consistency over quarters. Their style is perfect for that playing group.
“Richmond they haven’t beaten for a while and that’s going to be a big challenge. If they get over that one, West Coast and North they clean up and the Blues becomes a 50-50 game.”
If the Bombers hit the bye at 8-5, and we’re assuming they’ll need 13 wins to play finals, they will have ample opportunities to find five more.
They play the Eagles and Kangaroos again in the back half of the year, as well as GWS (in Sydney).
They will then need to beat two of: Fremantle (in Perth), Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Collingwood.
Of course, this all starts with following Johnson’s 4 Bs.