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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 9

2023-05-11T17:50+10:00

After a huge week in the footy world with headlines grabbing attention in the media, we're finally set for some more footy to focus on.

Round 9 sees two games take place on Friday with Sunday hosting just two fixtures due to Mother's Day.

Check out out who we think will win each game and why below!

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Richmond v Geelong

Friday - 7.20pm - MCG

The depleted Cats head to the MCG as one of the form teams in the competition having won their last five games by an average of 55 points.

Unfortunately for Chris Scott’s side, they’ll be without premiership stars Patrick Dangerfield and Brad Close who will both miss this big clash due to injury and suspension respectively.

As for Richmond, they’ve had a very disappointing 2023, battling both injury and form.

They enjoyed their second win of the year last week against West Coast, smacking the helpless Eagles by 46 points with a number of their stars finding form.

Geelong’s recent record of the Tigers is strong, they’ve won their last three by an average of 33 points all in which have been played at the MCG. In those wins, it’s been Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron who have done damage, the forward duo have kicked 17 goals between them in the wins and one of those wins was without Cameron!

If Tom Lynch was playing, I’d be giving the Tigers a big chance considering the players that are missing for the Cats, but it’s so hard to tip Richmond with any confidence give how their playing.

Tip: Geelong by 27 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

West Coast v Gold Coast

Friday - 8.40pm - Optus Stadium

The later of the two Friday night clashes, Adam Simpson has just 26 players to pick from to beat Gold Coast.

Putting it into context, he’s got just enough fit players to pick a starting 22 and four emergencies. It should be the only factor that comes into account here.

Apart from the Round 7 loss to Carlton, the Eagles have been plucky in staying in most clashes longer than they had a right to, given the cattle on the field.

Nevertheless, they’ve won just one game and haven’t got within 40 points in their last five clashes.

It’s a far different context to that of the Gold Coast Suns, who – in a parallel universe – could have won their last four.

The Suns’ midfield was on fire last week against Melbourne and a pinnacle of Stuart Dew’s game plan has been effort.

With Gold Coast on a roll, Friday’s game is a match they just have to win by any means necessary. But it shouldn’t come to that.

The Suns have won their last two against West Coast and it will take a miraculous effort from Simpson’s charges to stop it becoming three.

Tip: Gold Coast by 44 points.

Seb Mottram

Sydney v Fremantle

Saturday - 1.45pm - SCG After slumping to 3-5 through eight rounds, the Swans desperately need a win here against Fremantle.

While the Dockers also have just three wins to their name, it feels like Sydney’s situation is far more precarious given that they finished runners-up in 2022.

Last time between the sides, it was the Swans who took the chocolates, winning by 17 points away from home at Optus Stadium in Round 18, last year.

The Swans dominated on-ball in that clash with Callum Mills and Chad Warner running riot, and they’ll hope to keep their form going after performing well in the loss to Collingwood.

While Sydney’s form as a team isn’t that promising, they simply must win this game against a Fremantle side that hasn’t looked anywhere as strong as they were last season.

If Sydney fails to hold home court here, it will ring huge alarm bells.

Surely they’ll pick up their fourth win of the year in this one.

Tip: Sydney by 20 points.

Lachlan Geleit

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Saturday - 2.10pm - Blundstone Arena

Port Adelaide are absolutely flying right now.

After last week’s thrilling affair against the Bombers, the Power come into this clash riding a five-game win streak, having found tremendous form after being stunned by the Crows back in Gather Round.

For North Melbourne, things couldn’t be any different.

Alastair Clarkson’s squad has lost their last six games and look completely lost defensively, conceding the third-most points per game in the competition.

The Power would be licking their lips looking at the Kangaroos’ defensive woes, having notched multiple close wins through their win streak and in serious need of a percentage boost.

Recent history doesn’t look good for North either, with the Roos having secured just one victory over Port since 2014.

While a clash between a top-four hopeful and a club seeking to avoid a wooden spoon wouldn’t usually draw too many eyeballs, Jason Horne-Francis’ presence should guarantee a higher level of intensity.

This game will mark the first occasion Horne-Francis has faced off against North since departing the club on less than stellar terms last off-season, and it will be interesting to see what kind of reception the Roos’ Tasmanian fanbase will give him.

Regardless of any JHF-related events, the Power should handle a floundering North Melbourne squad quite easily.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 46 points.

Jack Makeham

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Saturday - 4.35pm - MCG

These two teams tend to go on lengthy winning streaks against one another. Hawthorn have not beaten Melbourne since Round 4 of 2018. Of course, the two teams tied in 2021.

Before that, the Hawks won 13 straight on the Dees, ending in 2016.

It’s hard to see this game being the streak breaker for Hawthorn, with Melbourne batting for top four and the Hawks entrenched down the other end.

The Demons beat North Melbourne by 90 points a fortnight ago and with Hawthorn on a similar level, this looms as another percentage booster.

The Hawks gave up 117 points to Fremantle last weekend and had their worst performance of the season, though they took Adelaide and GWS to the limit and pushed the Bulldogs in the previous month.

If Melbourne shows up expecting to win, the Hawks may jump them and make things interesting, though it’s hard to see them having the firepower to finish the job.

Tip: Melbourne by 63 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Brisbane v Essendon

Saturday - 7.25pm - Gabba

The form lines of Brisbane and Essendon could hardly be more contrasting ahead of Round 9.

The Lions have won five on the trot, yet the last four have come against North Melbourne, GWS, Fremantle and Carlton, clubs that are hardly setting the competition alight early in the year.

On the other hand, Essendon has faced the hardest month in the AFL. A win against Melbourne has been followed by good showings against Collingwood, Geelong and Port Adelaide, all of which the Bombers have started clear outsiders in.

They’re not playing bad footy, but Brad Scott’s side needs another win to stay in contact with the top eight.

It could be a clash won between the arcs. The defences of Essendon and Brisbane have stood up this year with Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Jack Payne enjoying career-best seasons.

The likes of Zach Merrett, Jake Stringer, Jye Caldwell, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale and more are all goal-kicking midfielders meaning Saturday’s clash could be a high-powered one.

Another factor is the Lions’ dominance at home, having comfortably won all three at the Gabba this year including defeats over Melbourne and Collingwood.

Even if it’s just a two-goal advantage, it feels too much to overcome for the Bombers, providing Brisbane hasn’t become comfortable while belting mediocre teams.

Tip: Brisbane by 18 points.

Seb Mottram

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7.30pm - Marvel Stadium

After a strong start to the season, Carlton are facing a potential crossroads just nine rounds into the season.

With three losses from their last four games, the Blues simply can’t afford to drop this game to the Bulldogs, with the Magpies, Swans (away), Demons and Bombers ahead of them next month.

While Carlton will be desperate to pick up a win, that will be easier said than done against the Bulldogs who have three-straight wins to their name as they begin to build in 2023.

On top of stopping the Bulldogs, Carlton will be focused on limiting the impact of their skipper Marcus Bontempelli, who is somehow in the form of his life after he collected a career-high 14 clearances last week against GWS.

For the Blues, they took out the last meeting between the sides with Patrick Cripps earning three votes.

If Cripps can nullify Bontempelli, there’s no doubt Carlton have enough talent to get the job done.

But looking at the formlines of both sides, it’s too hard to look past the Bulldogs.

Either way, this will be a game that fans of both sides and neutrals will be glued to with the result potentially critical.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 17 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Adelaide v St Kilda

Sunday - 1.10pm - Adelaide Oval

Adelaide enters this on the back of a strong showing against the Cats in Geelong.

It didn’t end in four points but they were mightily competitive and will take plenty from their performance.

St Kilda on the other hand did what they had to in taking care of North Melbourne in a largely forgettable contest.

They eventually got away with a 30-point win which improved their record to 6-2 and has them prettily perched in third spot on the ladder.

Ross Lyon’s Saints have conceded just 474 points this year (at an average of 59) making them a tough nut to crack. Matthew Nicks will need to conjure a clever plan to allow his Crows, who have the fifth best attack in the league, to break down and pierce through the stingy Saints.

This is a genuine 50-50 and if it was being played at Marvel, the Saints would land on top from a tipping perspective.

But the 4-4 Crows simply need to win this at home in order to keep in touch with the top eight given they have a tough run ahead with games against the Western Bulldogs (in Ballarat) and Brisbane (at home).

There is a little bit more on the line for the Crows and although it won’t at all be easy, they should get the edge in a must-win match.

Tip: Adelaide by 8 points.

Andrew Slevison

Collingwood v GWS

Sunday - 4.40pm - MCG

Collingwood continue to find ways to win, and they’ll go in pretty strong favourites against GWS at the MCG on Sunday.

With a 7-1 record under their belt through eight games, the Magpies will remain at least a game clear on top if they pick up a win here against the Giants.

Simply put, it would be a pretty stunning result if the Giants were able to pull off an upset here given the Magpies have built a domineering recent record at the MCG, saluting in their last 15 home and away games at the venue.

With Toby Greene potentially a late out as well, the Magpies will back themselves that they should have too much talent to drop this game, particularly how their game is stacking up at the moment.

After navigating a reasonably tough start to the year, a bigger win here could set Collingwood well on their way to begin solidifying a place in the top four with their next three games against Carlton, North Melbourne and West Coast.

Tip: Collingwood by 32 points.

Lachlan Geleit

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