With the dreaded bye rounds around the corner, it is time to assess how your side is placed to handle the best 18 scoring system in place between Rounds 12 and 14.
THE CULL CANDIDATES
Clayton Oliver’s (658,700, 120 pts) hamstring injury will dominate the trade planning of many this week. The absence of a recovery timeline and Goodwin’s concession the Demons will take a ‘very cautious’ approach indicate a need to trade. Those desperately low on trades could hold and hope best 18 scoring mitigates the loss of points. However, Oliver’s lofty price offers these coaches an opportunity to bank vital cash through replacing him with a discounted premium, which can then be utilised for upgrades.
The Trade Winds’ kiss of death claimed Josh Kelly ($591,700, 106 pts) on the weekend. Set to miss a month with a hamstring strain, he is a must trade.
Oskar Baker’s ($292,200, 61 pts) breakeven is only 48, but he is unlikely to punish you for moving him on this week.
THE CASH COWS
Kaine Baldwin’s ($172,900, 60 pts) shift to the backline has benefitted his scoring, but Laverde’s imminent return casts doubt over his job security.
George Wardlaw ($193,800, 85 pts) shone on debut in North Melbourne’s agonising loss to the Swans. ‘The Warden’ should get an extended run in the side and is a viable early addition to your team this week. Immediately unleashed on the ball, Wardlaw attended 18 centre bounces and racked up 9 tackles.
Teammate Eddie Ford ($123,900, 102 pts) was also excellent in his first game for 2023, hitting the scoreboard and collecting 21 disposals at 87%. Watch next week.
Josh Weddle ($230,200, 114 pts) secured himself a rising star nomination, roaming UTAS stadium seemingly unopposed all day. Weddle collected 24 uncontested possessions and 2 goals, much to the dismay of those that missed snagging him for 130k.
Investing in Bailey Humphrey ($285,700, 101 pts) last week paid dividends, with the young Sun continuing to rotate through the midfield, cracking a second consecutive ton. Humphrey will be a saviour for many struggling to field 18 during the byes.
With Peter Ladhams expected to miss a number of weeks and Logan McDonald out for two months, Lachlan McAndrew ($123,900, 53 pts) could see an extended run for the Bloods. The big man only managed 2 hitouts to advantage from 20 taps, but was matched up against veteran Todd Goldstein. Monitor if he shares the ruck load with Tom Hickey, likely to return from concussion, and consider if named in Round 13 after his bye.
THE UPGRADE TARGETS
With a breakeven of 85, Lachie Neale ($561,500, 128 pts) represents value this week. The volatility of Neale’s scoring has increased this year, but he should still push for top ten midfielder status. Excluding DPP MID-FWDs, Neale is the 11th ranked midfielder in 2023 by average.
Andrew Brayshaw’s ($572,400, 134 pts) uptick in scoring continued, bringing his three round average to 123. He has eclipsed 30 disposals every game during this stretch, and averaged just shy of 8 tackles per game. With his knee pain behind him, expect Brayshaw to perform strongly in the back half of 2023.
Dreamtime medal winner Zach Merrett ($582,100, 162 pts) is similarly priced and has averaged more than 110 every year since 2020. Merrett offers potential X factor in Supercoach finals, with Essendon enjoying a cushy fixture that includes West Coast, North Melbourne, GWS and Collingwood in the fantasy postseason. The Dons skipper is currently in 9% of teams and could explode against West Coast this week.
Darcy Cameron ($495,900, 61 pts) was eased back, collecting 9 disposals and five hitouts to advantage from 64% TOG. Cameron’s attendance at 16 centre bounces was encouraging - he could be a cheap F6 in a few weeks time, offering valuable ruck cover.
Jack Sinclair’s ($537,300, 160 pts) complete 37 disposal showing included 7 intercept possessions, 7 score involvements and 26 kicks. A bargain with huge upside, Sinclair only posted three sub ton scores in 2022.
Teammate Jack Steele ($532,600, 135 pts) quashed any concerns his nagging medial issue would curtail his scoring. Typically dogged in the contest, the skipper laid 11 tackles alongside 25 possessions. Historically an uber premium, he will score well as long as his body allows.
While Steele and Sinclair are both excellent replacements for Oliver this week, Geelong’s Round 13 break will make Tom Stewart ($583,600, 91 pts) a very appealing upgrade before the byes commence. Stewart’s scoring ceiling and floor are both high , evidenced by his top score of 167 and low of 91 this year. Look to bring him in next week for the likes of Darcy Wilmot who has his bye in Round 12.
The Final Call
OUTS: Clayton Oliver, Oskar Baker
INS: Zach Merrett, George Wardlaw
Vice Captain: Jack Steele/Christian Petracca
Captain: Zach Merrett