David King doesn’t believe Geelong can make the top four after their 5-5 start to the 2023 season.
After starting 0-3, the Cats roared back into form to win five straight games, but with two consecutive losses in Rounds 9 and 10, many are doubting their credentials once more.
Having taken a look at their defensive rankings, King believes the Cats can’t win the flag if they continue to remain easy to score against while he’s already crossed them off in terms of top-four calculations.
“The Cats are a fascination for me at the moment,” King told SEN The Picks.
“With the stuff that we follow being able to be damaging with the footy, they're right up there, they’re top two in the comp with Brisbane.
“But it's when they're not in possession this year that's changed.
“When the opposition have the ball, they're actually ranked 13th, which is not them, they've been bulletproof defensively for years.
“Once you start talking about 12, 14, 16 - those sort of ratings (in the competition) - if you take out your Div 2 teams (in Hawthorn, West Cost and North Melbourne) suddenly you're 12th of 15.
“Basically, those sorts of numbers mean you can't win it, you can't be a top-four team.
“I got hammered at the start of the year and probably rightly so (for saying that), but there are holes there at the moment that they don't want to discuss.”
With top four potentially out of the question, particularly if they lose two or three more games in a short period, King expects the Cats to try and prime themselves for a six-week stretch at the end of the year to have a tilt at the premiership from the lower half of the top eight.
“It sounds to me like they're going to set for a six-week campaign at the end of the year,” King said.
“Try and get all their players back healthy if, if some need to miss an extra week or an extra two weeks, so be it, if it costs you one win, so be it, try and win it from seventh or sixth.
“That's a smart way of going about it.
“They not going to come out and say, ‘Hey guys, we've given up on what this’.
“What they're going to do is make decisions that will have you think they're going down that path.”
Geelong will go in favourites in their next clash when they host GWS at home on Saturday afternoon.