Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the eight remaining games in Round 11.
St Kilda versus Hawthorn
Max King to kick two or more goals
It was great to see King play last week, and didn't he return with a bang!!!
The star forward had six shots on goal against the Giants, four of them going through the big sticks in what was a perfect return from a shoulder reconstruction.
Expecting him to play on Sam Frost, and no offence to Frost, but he's no Max King.
Lock him in for two or more goals.
James Sicily to have 20 or more disposals
Not only is Sicily one of the best defenders in the competition, he also has this ability to rack up the footy.
The Hawthorn skipper is averaging 24.8 disposals and 9.2 marks a game this year, numbers that you normally see from midfielders.
We're expecting Frost to be given first crack at Max King, meaning Sicily will play on Anthony Camaniti, and if that's the case, you can lock it in that he'll find it over 20 times.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Melbourne versus Fremantle
Jack Viney 25+ disposals
For the first time in what feels like an eternity, the Demons’ midfield looks a bit vulnerable.
Missing their superstar ball magnet Clayton Oliver and another pivotal piece in Lachie Hunter, Melbourne’s engine room enters the clash against Fremantle a step below their usual quality.
However, these absences do mean there is going to be plenty more of the football to go around, and Jack Viney should be a prime beneficiary of this.
Averaging 23.3 touches per game this year, Viney has consistently demonstrated his ball-winning abilities, highlighted even more by the two 30-disposal games he’s already had this season.
Viney will see plenty of action on Saturday afternoon.
Caleb Serong 30+ disposals
For the same reason that Jack Viney will get his hands on plenty of the football, expect Caleb Serong to see plenty of action.
The star Docker is averaging 30.7 touches on the year, and facing off against this depleted Demons midfield, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him greatly exceed this mark.
Serong has only fallen below the 30-possession mark in four games this season, expect him to reach it handily this week.
Jack Makeham
Geelong versus GWS
Tom Stewart to enjoy 20+ disposals
The Giants don’t have a clear matchup for Stewart, who is in All-Australian form once again, meaning the 30-year-old should be prominent on Saturday.
He’s dropped below 20 touches only twice in 2023, boasts a decent record against the Giants and loves playing at GMHBA Stadium.
It’s a good day to back Geelong’s most consistent player.
Giants won’t kick more than 75 points
If GWS is to win on Saturday, it’s going to have to be on the back of a remarkable defensive effort.
That’s because they simply don’t have the cattle to overcome Geelong’s defence. Harry Himmelberg going down means the Giants lose some X-factor and Jesse Hogan now has a huge weight on his shoulders.
Aaron Cadman hasn’t been threatening so far in his AFL career, while Jake Riccardi has gone goalless in four of his five games this year.
What’s more, Sam De Koning comes back in and no team has put more than 75 points on Geelong at home since Max Gawn goaled after the siren in Round 23, 2021 to make Melbourne minor premiers.
Seb Mottram
Gold Coast versus Western Bulldogs
Ben King kicks 2+ goals
After a slow start to the season in his return to footy, Ben King has hit his stride.
Gold Coast’s prized forward has kicked multiple goals in his last six matches, including four hauls of 3+ majors.
His 25 goals for the season currently have him sitting sixth in the Coleman medal race, a stellar outcome after kicking just five goals through the first four rounds.
While King is likely to receive the attention of an in-form Liam Jones, the star Sun is red-hot and is more than capable of snagging at least two on a tough opponent.
Bailey Smith 25+ disposals
Bailey Smith has properly kicked things into gear in recent weeks.
After some solid but not mind-blowing games to start the season, the speedy ball-magnet has collected 30+ touches in each of his last three games.
The best of this streak came last week against the Crows, with Smith racking up 37 disposals in his best showing for the season.
With Adam Treloar still yet to return, the extra responsibility remains on Smith’s plate.
Considering how well he has handled the workload in recent games, another strong showing looks in store against the Suns.
Jack Makeham
West Coast versus Essendon
Oscar Allen to kick a goal
The young key forward is one of just a few Eagles who can be proud of his performances across the opening 10 rounds.
Allen has kicked at least a goal in every game in 2023, a strong showing after missing all of last year and with West Coast’s struggles.
He’ll likely cop Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – who has been in good form – but Round 11 should see Allen keep his streak going of consistent majors.
Essendon to win
There is no bigger certainty this weekend than an Essendon win.
It’s hardly a major call given West Coast’s struggles, but there’s no conceivable way Brad Scott’s troops don’t come away with a victory.
Essendon’s forward line rates equal sixth in 2023, while West Coast has given up more than 100 points than any other team.
If the Bombers don’t put 110+ points on the Eagles it might just prove the surprise of the year.
Seb Mottram
Richmond versus Port Adelaide
Rioli to have 21+ disposals, 350+ metres gained
Daniel Rioli is putting together another consistent campaign across half-back.
In 10 outings in 2023, he is yet to drop below 20 disposals and averages 23.9 touches as well as 455 metres gained.
He is a constant in providing drive out of defence for the Tigers and that shouldn’t change under interim coach Andrew McQualter.
We’re banking on Rioli to pick up at least 20 disposals and provide at least 350 metres gained aganst the Power on Sunday.
Butters to have 25+ disposals, 7+ combined inside 50s/clearances
Zak Butters is in some sort of form.
In his last seven outings, the 22-year-old has amassed 212 disposals at an average of 30. (His season average is 26.9 across 10 games).
Last week against Melbourne he was extraordinary with 41 touches, 10 clearances and eight inside 50s (plus two goals).
In seven career games against Richmond he has only averaged 17 touches per game, but in his most recent outing against the Tigers (Round 21 last year) he finished with 28 touches.
With the current form he’s in, we’re confident Butters will collect at least 25 touches.
He also averages 5.1 inside 50s and 4.2 clearances across the season, so we’ll throw in a combined total of 7 or more inside 50s and/or clearances.
Andrew Slevison
Collingwood versus North Melbourne
Jordan De Goey to have 20+ disposals and kick at least one goal
While Nick Daicos has attracted most of the headlines this season, Jordan De Goey has quietly starred for the Magpies.
Averaging 24 disposals and a goal a game, De Goey is one of the competition’s best performed players and he will be expecting to have a big say against a struggling North Melbourne side.
While De Goey didn’t goal last week against the Blues, he still had 27 disposals and you’d expect him to get a similar amount of the footy here and hit the scoreboard going forward.
Jack Ziebell to have 20 or more disposals
North Melbourne veteran Jack Ziebell has collected more than 20 disposals in all but one game this year.
Averaging 25 touches per game across the year, expect Ziebell to be similarly prolific, especially as Collingwood will be tipped to hold plenty of field position.
Acting as somewhat of a designated kicker for the Roos, expect Ziebell to mop up more often than not out of half back.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide versus Brisbane
Taylor Walker 2+ goals
Tex is fresh coming off a weekend’s rest and will be ready to take on a genuine contender in Brisbane.
Couple that with Jack Payne missing through injury and there’s an opening there for Walker to dominate.
The Crows are a great team at the Adelaide Oval and will hit the scoreboard much harder than last week.
Charlie Cameron 2+ goals
Back at the Adelaide Oval where he plied his trade early on, Charlie Cameron will be ready for what is the biggest game he’s had against his old club.
The Brisbane star has quietly kicked 28 goals this year and has kicked them in bags.
Expect Cameron to have a day out on Sunday afternoon.
Nic Negrepontis