If you were one of the 18 club chief executives at Werribee Mansion this morning, would you have had an open mind to the AFL’s thought bubble of play-in games for the final series?
CEO-elect Andrew Dillon should start with a quick history lesson.
The competition has had a 4, 5, 6 and an 8-team finals system.
In the dim past there was a challenge system where a team could lose the Grand Final and challenge again to win it the following week.
We’ve had a season in which the same team won the wooden spoon and the premiership.
Five was the perfect finals system. Top of the ladder banked all the advantages.
When we moved to a six-teamer, the first season was absurd.
3rd played 4th in one elimination final. And 5th played 6th in the other. It was if there had never been a mathematician at headquarters.
It was corrected the following year, but 6th beat 3rd – a Collingwood team that had won just as many games as 1st and 2nd that year and was abruptly out in sudden death.
The first incarnation of the eight-team system was unwieldy and ultimately led to first-week matches with no meaning.
The current system is adequate – but certainly has never rewarded the top team on the ladder to the extent it might.
All the patterns established have been thrown about by the implementation of the pre-finals bye.
The point being there is no history or tradition to protect here. The Finals series has constantly evolved. Sometimes for the worse.
It will certainly change in the years to come. Opportunity and necessity will play a role when the 19th team comes in.
Today’s thought bubble is the play-in games – a concept well proven around the world.
You’d imagine two matches on the eve of the finals - 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th.
The lazy rebuttal is to pretend this rewards mediocrity. It does the opposite.
It makes seventh and eighth the death seats. You have to finish in the top six to solidify your premiership chances.
And the language is important … you haven’t qualified for the finals unless you win the play-in game.
It prompts a new moment of recognition and celebration.
The past two seasons hold up to the play-in concept:
2022 Richmond (13-1-8) v St Kilda (11-11)
Richmond ended up playing a stirring Elimination Final against Brisbane at the Gabba. Would this have affected Brett Ratten’s future as St Kilda’s coach had the Saints won?
Bulldogs (12-10) v Carlton (12-10)
The Dogs watched in a hotel room as their fate was determined by the Blues’ loss to Collingwood in the final round. That’s surely better done on the field?
2021 is probably the best example – there was a 14-point gulf between 6 and 7 and an 8-point squeeze between the next six teams.
GWS Giants (11-1-10) v St Kilda (10-12)
Essendon (11-11) v West Coast (10-12)
The season is getting longer not shorter. It certainly is a marathon… but it is also a handicap.
We shouldn’t conveniently pretend for this argument that it’s a level playing field and every team gets an equal chance to qualify.
You need that season alive for as many teams as possible for as long as possible. This season is a great example of that.
What would it do to the here and now?
Got to get out of the death seat in 7 and 8. That’s Bulldogs and Essendon who are about to play.
You’ve got a hungry group trying to get into the mix of 9 and 10 held by the Giants and Carlton. Richmond, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney and Fremantle all chasing that.
Sydney and Fremantle play this weekend in what would be a straight out eliminator.
And you have the unfortunate scenario where playing West Coast and North Melbourne is the greatest leg-up available in the last six weeks.
The play-in games in the NBA and NBL work because they are blockbuster knock-out games with the ultimate consequence… which is sort of the whole point of sport.
You can imagine how big those games could become in the AFL. Full stands… huge audiences, and there’s a spare weekend already there just waiting for the entertainment.
I’d certainly have an open mind if the case was argued convincingly.
Would you?