Port Adelaide is behind the eight ball in looking to hold onto a top two spot late in the season.
A Round 21 clash with Geelong shapes as a must-win game for the Power to keep their destiny in their own hands, with Brisbane just four points behind in third.
But the history between the Cats and Port, as well as Geelong’s record at GMHBA Stadium after a loss, comes as nervous reading for Power fans.
The men from Alberton haven’t won at Kardinia Park since 2007, the year Port was eventually thrashed by the Cats in the Grand Final to the tune of 119 points.
They’ve lost their last eight games at the ground by an average of 46 points.
If that’s not enough to overcome, Geelong’s result in Round 20 also hurts Port’s chances.
The Cats were subject to an unexpected defeat to Fremantle last week, but rarely lose two games in a row at home.
In fact, it’s only happened once in Chris Scott’s lengthy tenure at the club when Geelong missed the finals in 2015.
With both teams needing a win, former Cat Daniel Menzel believes Geelong has a slight edge to keep its season alive.
“It’s 16 years since they’ve won there… and Geelong don’t lose at home twice in a row very often,” Menzel told SEN’s Sportsday SA.
“I feel like with their season on the line and Aliir Aliir out, I do worry about how Port’s defence will hold up.
“I give the edge slightly to Geelong.”
As Menzel notes, Aliir’s concussion complicates the matter for Ken Hinkley.
Already fielding an undermanned defence that has conceded 319 points in a three-game losing streak, the Power will have to get creative.
“I think with Aliir out, if you have Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, I think it would have been too much for the Power to be able to handle,” he added.
“With Hawkins going out, the focus will go to Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan might potentially get up the ground a bit more because they need more speed around the footy, the Cats.
“It makes it a bit more manageable for the Power, Hawkins is a massive loss… if they drop this game the Cats, they probably fall out of contention of the eight.”
The clash is slated for 7:25pm AEST on Saturday night.