Collingwood’s Nick Daicos is the hot Brownlow Medal favourite.
Some bookmakers have him as short as $1.70 to take home this year’s Charlie, which would be an astronomical feat in just his second season at AFL level.
The 20-year-old currently sits atop the AFL Coaches Association Champion Player award on 99 votes, some 13 clear of Melbourne’s Christian Petracca who is next best. AFL.com.au’s Brownlow predictor has Daicos already on 30 votes, ahead of Richmond’s Tim Taranto on 27.
Many pundits are backing him in to win and at this stage it appears highly likely that he could.
However, there is a specific statistic that suggests that a Daicos Brownlow win is not necessarily all that academic.
Contested possessions are an important stat in the modern game, highlighting a player’s ability to win his own ball at the source. As the Brownlow Medal is almost exclusively a midfielder’s award, those that are constantly under the noses of the umpires have an advantage.
Players who have finished the season in the top five for contested possessions have won that year’s Brownlow dating back to 2013. That’s 10 winners in a row.
Carlton’s Patrick Cripps (2022), Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines (2021), Brisbane’s Lachie Neale (2020), Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (2019), Tom Mitchell when at Hawthorn (2018), Richmond’s Dustin Martin (2017), Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (2016), Fyfe again (2015), West Coast’s Matt Priddis (2014) and Geelong great Gary Ablett (2013) were all top four in this specific stats category in their Brownlow season.
Daicos currently has 176 contested possessions which is equal 37th in the league, so he has some work to do if this specific stat actually does define the Brownlow winner.
For the record, the current top five for contested possessions in 2023 is Marcus Bontempelli (WB), Lachie Neale (BRI), Tom Liberatore (WB), Christian Petracca (MEL) and Matt Rowell (GCS). Just outside that quintet is last year’s winner Patrick Cripps (CAR) ahead of Caleb Serong (FRE), Rory Laird (ADE), Tim Taranto (RIC) and James Worpel (HAW).
Between 2000 and 2012, of 17 Brownlow winners (including Jobe Watson before he was stripped), only eight finished top five for contested possessions.
So it’s not unforeseeable that Daicos cannot win without contested possessions.
Obviously, contested possessions were hard to come by for Daicos earlier in the season when he was dominating off half-back, so don’t let this dampen your spirits, Pies fans.
But the numbers do not back up his cause.
See the year by year contested possession results for Brownlow winners below, dating back to 2000.
YEAR - PLAYER - POSITION - TOTAL CPs
2022 - P.Cripps (4th - 322)
2021 - O.Wines (2nd - 354)
2020 - L.Neale (1st - 247)
2019 - N.Fyfe (3rd - 351)
2018 - T.Mitchell (2nd - 389)
2017 - D.Martin (2nd - 363)
2016 - P.Dangerfield (2nd - 388)
2015 - N.Fyfe (3rd - 356)
2014 - M.Priddis (3rd - 330)
2013 - G.Ablett (3rd - 313)
2012 - S.Mitchell (7th - 300) & T.Cotchin (19th - 273) + J.Watson (4th - 316)
2011 - D.Swan (6th - 307)
2010 - C.Judd (5th - 245)
2009 - G.Ablett (1st - 295)
2008 - A.Cooney (4th - 251)
2007 - J.Bartel (8th - 221)
2006 - A.Goodes (16th - 198)
2005 - B.Cousins (5th - 238)
2004 - C.Judd (2nd - 273)
2003 - M.Ricciuto (9th - 244), N.Buckley (3rd - 276) & A.Goodes (31st - 198)
2002 - S.Black (1st - 290)
2001 - J.Akermanis (15th - 210)
2000 - S.Woewodin (13th - 226)
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