Paddy Dow has played 69 AFL games since being selected with pick three in the 2017 National Draft.
Game 70 will be the most important of his career.
With Adam Cerra, Matt Kennedy and Sam Walsh all on the sidelines, the Blues will hand over the midfield keys to someone seemingly on the outer.
It’s easy to forget that when Dow was drafted, a year before Walsh, he was seen as the future face of Carlton’s midfield.
So bullish was list manager Stephen Silvagni at the time that he picked the Bendigo Pioneers prospect ahead of Luke Davies-Uniacke and had him ranked on his draft board ahead of Andrew Brayshaw.
Now nearly 24, Dow’s career has stalled, with Michael Voss and his coaching group clearly seeing him as a tier below their best midfielders. After playing 17 games in 2021, he has only managed 10 since – most featuring a substitute’s vest.
Carlton traded for Adam Cerra and signed George Hewett going into 2022, bolstering its midfield alongside Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps.
Coupled with Matt Kennedy’s emergence over the last 30 months and suddenly the depth chart at the club looked very different.
And Dow was left behind.
Rather than giving up and requesting a trade, however, he dug in. The Blues were open to him exploring a trade at the end of 2022, but he wanted to stay. He's been consistently in the club's best players at VFL level all season, though he remained stuck behind the AFL starters.
Now out of contract, the same question will arise again. And if you were an opposition side weighing up a pursuit, this weekend’s clash with St Kilda could be the deciding factor.
It will be Dow’s second full game of senior footy in 12 months and his best opportunity to prove himself in that time.
He picked up 21 disposals in the Round 19 smashing of West Coast – and was omitted the following week.
Before that, he played in Rounds 11 and 21 of 2022 – and was omitted the following week both times.
If Walsh returns from his hamstring injury to face Melbourne next week, he could be dropped once more.
But Carlton needs to win this game. They still have to win at least two of their last four to guarantee a finals spot.
And Paddy Dow will be a big part of that push when the Blues take on St Kilda on Sunday. What will he dish up?
I’m sure new St Kilda list manager Stephen Silvagni will be watching it closely.