The 2023 AFL season is wide open like nothing we have seen in recent seasons.
Collingwood has been the standout team of 2023, but has never felt as unbeatable as some of the premiership winners of recent years.
Melbourne, Brisbane and Port Adelaide round out the clear top four, while Carlton and Sydney are finishing the season in strong form.
The numbers back this feeling up, with Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne revealing that no team in 2023 is anywhere near last year’s Geelong, 2021’s Melbourne or the Richmond juggernaut sides.
“There’s no one even close to Geelong last year. There’s no one even close to Melbourne in 2021 or Richmond in 2020 or 2019,” Hoyne told SEN’s Sportsday.
“That’s why the competition is so great at the moment. It’s so tight. You can mount a case for five or six teams.
“No team has the perfect profile heading into a finals campaign.”
Looking at Melbourne, Hoyne said their defensive profile is keeping them in the premiership conversation.
“The reason why Melbourne might not have success is because of their offence. They’re 12th at turning inside 50s into score and their ball movement game as well,” he said.
“But the reason why they are potentially going to win the flag or play-off in a Grand Final is what they’re doing defensively.
“That game against Carlton on the weekend was exceptional in terms of what they did defensively.
“If you’re Port Adelaide, yes that was a good win on the weekend against GWS, but you still leaked 87 points. That’s been their issue across this campaign.
“Then if you’re St Kilda and what they’re going to do come finals time, there’s no team that struggles to convert entries into scores more this year. That at some stage will be their undoing.
“You are who you are as a team. Don’t expect teams to just flick a switch and show up with a different profile.”
Carlton is the team finishing the season with the bullet. Beating Gold Coast and GWS to finish the season would see them likely lock in a fifth-placed finish.
Hoyne was especially impressed with their win over the Demons on Saturday night, given the Blues got the four points mostly without their one-wood: scoring from clearances.
“The Blues know who they are. They’ve been this absolute clearance machine for an eight-week period, but the good thing for Carlton moving forward is that that wasn’t the reason they were where they were at three-quarter time against Melbourne in what felt like a Prelim Final type of game,” he said.
“They’d scored zero goals to three quarter time from clearance work – they’ve been averaging close to 10 goals a game over the last two months (from clearances).
“So, to have that taken away from you by what is probably the best defensive team in the competition, but then to still find a way to score off the back of your turnover work, that’s why it is a different team to what it was 10 weeks ago.
“You had your number one weapon taken away for three quarters and then in that last quarter to get the three-goal lead, that’s when their weapon kicked in.
“To be able to win a different way against what’s probably the best team in the competition at the moment was a huge tick for them.”