Why can each of the eight finals teams win the 2023 AFL premiership?
That is the burning question ahead of the finals series which kicks off next Thursday night.
18 clubs started the home and away season and after 24 rounds, only eight teams remain.
Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne has assessed each of those sides and outlined why their main point of difference (key strength) can help them win this year’s flag.
COLLINGWOOD
“It is what you are doing offensively and it is your counter-attack game across that half-back line,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday.
“Over the last six weeks no team in the competition is more dangerous across that half-back line than what Collingwood are.
“You just picture Collingwood and their ability to be able to explode across half-back, that to me is the reason why they can win the flag this year.
“If they get that game up and going for a four-week period then that’s going to be their point of difference.”
BRISBANE
“Brisbane’s ability to be able to move the ball from defensive 50 is their point of difference.
“They play such a strong territory based game, that’s what their game is built off. A lot of that territory is off the back of their clearance work.
“Why they’re so good this year is if they’re not getting that territory off their clearance work, they then have the ability to be able to move it from one end of the ground to the other better than any other team in the competition.
“So they have two modes - clearance and transition - in which they can get their number one asset in play which is that forward half game.”
PORT ADELAIDE
“Their stoppage work at the moment is absolutely brutal.
“Over the last six weeks they’re no.2 in the competition at scoring from clearance, no.1 at turning a clearance into a score. Their centre bounce work is no.1 in the competition, their forward 50 work is no.2.
“Zak Butters is flying at the moment. If he has a four-week campaign where he goes bananas and if Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis can tag along and join him, that’s their point of difference is that stoppage game.”
MELBOURNE
“Clearly their whole game is based around contest and defence.
“Their ability to play the game in their forward half is clearly no.1 in the competition.
“Last six weeks they’ve been the no.1 inside 50 team in the competition, no.1 time in forward half team in the competition, no.2 at winning the ball back close to goal.
“They are just so hard to get through and you saw that with Sydney in the last 45 minutes, they just couldn’t get out in that situation.
“Thursday night (Collingwood v Melbourne) is the most fascinating game of Week 1 of the finals series.”
CARLTON
“If they’re going to progress past Sydney and deep into September it’s their brutality around clearance and stoppage.
“Clearly no.1 team at scoring from clearance, clearly the no.1 contested possession team in the comp, clearly the no.1 clearance team.
“They’re one of the easiest teams to analyse at the moment.
“But I’d rather have that transition profile. Absolutely they’re gettable.
“However, if that (clearance) aspect of the game goes bananas, like it did in the second half against St Kilda, they can still win.
“How far that takes them? Time will tell.”
ST KILDA
“If they’re to do damage in this finals series it’s what they’re doing defensively.
“Their ability to be able to maintain a reasonable deficit when they have been completely outplayed is purely due to what they do defensively and their defensive system under Ross Lyon.
“Across the last six weeks they are no.2 for points against and the fifth hardest team in the competition to score against once inside 50. That’s their game.
“Their ability to be able to move it from that half-back situation and not necessarily score, but generate entries, is no.1 in the competition.
“Their ability to be able to hold up behind the ball and then counter-attack, that’s their point of difference and the reason why they can win a final and potentially move into the second week.”
GWS GIANTS
“Over the last six weeks in the turnover game, GWS are plus 158 points. The next best finalist is Melbourne at plus 66.
“They’re streets ahead in terms of what they’re doing in the transition game. They scored 10 goals to two (against Carlton) in the transition game.
“Adam Kingsley and what he’s done to reshape how they play - the system now is a far more sustainable brand of footy (than it was when they made the 2019 Grand Final).”
SYDNEY
“Their bookends at the moment are the things that won them six of the last seven games and got them a three-goal lead against Melbourne.
“Their forward 50 is functioning the fifth best over the last six weeks. Importantly, their defensive 50 is functioning the second best in the competition and it’s needed to given that they’ve conceded close to 60 entries per week over the last six.
“That’s not a sustainable brand.
“This defensive 50 is holding up extremely well. How far you can go when you’re conceding that many entries is questionable.
“Either end of the ground is where their strength lies at the moment.”