There is a perception that the in-form lower ranked team can ride the wave of momentum and beat a top four side who lost their first final.
That seems to be the notion with many pundits who believe the rampaging GWS (7th) can head to the Adelaide Oval and knock off a banged up Port Adelaide (3rd) in the Semi Final on Saturday night.
To a lesser degree, many think Carlton (5th) can get the better of Melbourne (4th) at the MCG on Friday night and book their spot in a Preliminary Final.
But how does the lower ranked side fare against the higher ranked team in a Semi Final?
Over the last 10 years, the lower ranked team holds a 8-12 win-loss record which does give both the Giants and Blues somewhat of a fighting chance.
However, of the last 10 Semi Finals (since 2018) the higher ranked team has been fairly dominant, winning six and losing four.
Specifically speaking, 3rd has beaten 7th on three occasions from four matches since 2013 which bodes well for the Power. It shows there is usually a fair margin between the sides finishing four positions apart.
In the 4th v 5th matchup, the lower ranked team has actually come out on top three times from four attempts. That suits the Blues.
Based on these specific numbers over the last decade, Port Adelaide and Carlton are being favoured to advance.
But we know that any given game of footy is not played on these sorts of numbers.
SEN’s Gerard Whateley believes these particular Semi Final matchups could be much more competitive than some we have seen in the past.
“There are years where the semis can be a bit beige,” he said on SEN’s Whateley.
“The obligatory games before we get to the compelling prelims. Midst matches that have very little chance of surprising us.
“Top four teams reassert themselves and emphasise the class gap on the next division.
“Not this time around.
“While Melbourne and Port Adelaide are clear favourites, the Blues just beat the Demons (in Round 22) by an imperceptible fingertip.
“And by every recent measure the Giants are in better form than the Power.”
Overall, the numbers are telling us that the odds are ever so slightly in the favour of the the higher ranked teams - Port Adelaide and Melbourne.
But after these matches are done and dusted, new statistics will be written which will change the look of this article.
Overall stats
(Since 2013)
Higher ranked team wins: 12
Lower ranked team wins: 8
3rd v 7th: 3-1
4th v 5th: 1-3
See the year-by-year Semi Final breakdown since 2013 below:
2022
MEL (2nd) lost to BRI (6th)
Lower ranked team won.
COL (4th) beat FRE (5th)
Higher ranked team won.
2021
GEE (3rd) beat GWS (7th)
Higher ranked team won.
BRI (4th) lost to WB (5th)
Lower ranked team won.
2020
RIC (3rd) beat STK (6th)
Higher ranked team won.
GEE (4th) beat COL (8th)
Higher ranked team won.
2019
GEE (1st) beat WCE (5th)
Higher ranked team won.
BRI (2nd) lost to GWS (6th)
Lower ranked team won.
2018
HAW (4th) lost to MEL (5th)
Lower ranked team won.
COL (3rd) beat GWS (7th)
Higher ranked team won.
2017
GEE (2nd) beat SYD (6th)
Higher ranked team won.
GWS (4th) beat WCE (8th)
Higher ranked team won.
2016
HAW (3rd) lost to WB (7th)
Lower ranked team won.
SYD (1st) beat ADE (5th)
Higher ranked team won.
2015
HAW (3rd) beat ADE (7th)
Higher ranked team won.
SYD (4th) lost to NM (8th)
Lower ranked team won.
2014
FRE (4th) lost to PA (5th)
Lower ranked team won.
GEE (3rd) lost to NM (6th)
Lower ranked team won.
2013
SYD (4th) beat CAR (8th)
Higher ranked team won.
GEE (2nd) beat PA (7th)
Higher ranked team won.