The two feel-good stories of the 2023 NRL season will meet in the second semi-final for the chance to play the Brisbane Broncos in next weekend’s preliminary final.
Who wins out of the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights?
Read our preview below:
2nd Semi-Final
New Zealand Warriors (4th) v Newcastle Knights(5th)
Go Media Stadium, Auckland – 4:05pm AEST
Both the Warriors and Knights enter this clash with a significant injury cloud over some of the key players in the spine. The Warriors welcome back Shaun Johnson this week but will be without Luke Metcalf once again. Newcastle will be without Jackson Hastings and are likely to keep a watchful eye on Kalyn Ponga as he continues to recover from a shoulder issue.
The Warriors have made Go Media Stadium a fortress in 2023, winning six of the eight games played there, whilst the fans have made every game feel like a finals game. With tickets to this game selling out in under 30 minutes, the ‘Wahs’ movement has taken the country by storm and will make getting a win for the Knights that little bit harder. Despite question marks over Shaun Johnson’s calf, the Warriors will still be favoured to get the victory here in front of their passionate fans.
On the back of ten straight wins, the Knights are arguably the form team of the competition. With Kalyn Ponga in the midst of a career-best run of form, Newcastle have become serious contenders for the Premiership and will feel confident of a win come Saturday. The Knights’ strength this year has been the blistering attack, but they have shown signs of a somewhat unorganised defence, as seen in last week’s matchup with the Raiders. Going to extra time with an out-of-form Raiders side was not a great showing and if Newcastle’s cracks in defence show up again it could be a long night for the Novocastrians.
Last 5 games
Warriors
L v Panthers 32-6 L v Dolphins 34-10 W v Dragons 18-6 W v Sea Eagles 29-22 W v Tigers 30 -22
Knights
W v Raiders 30-28 W v Dragons 32-12 W v Sharks 32-6 W v Rabbitohs 29-10 W v Bulldogs 42-6
Last 3 meetings
Knights def Warriors 34-24
Warriors def Knights 20-12
Warriors def by Knights 16-24
Why the Warriors will win
The Warriors with and without Shaun Johnson are simply chalk and cheese. Johnson, who is likely to win the Dally M Medal in a couple weeks has been an enigma that has sparked the Warriors renaissance in 2023. His absence from the team was on display last week with the Warriors only managing six points despite averaging 23.8 points per game throughout the regular season.
With Johnson back in the side, the rest of the Warriors will lift and show why they were so feared throughout 2023. The imposing forward line will be sure to assert an early dominance on a much less experienced Knights pack and will be key in getting the Johnson-led attack in dangerous positions to pile on the points.
Why the Knights will win
Newcastle have gotten a taste of winning and are out to make 11 straight come Saturday afternoon.
The Knights possess the fourth-best attacking record in the league and can easily mask over the defensive issues if Kalyn Ponga is firing. Although Jackson Hastings absence will be felt, the halves combination of Tyson Gamble and Adam Clune have proven they can get the job done.
Newcastle could easily blow the Warriors away in a short period of dominance, as seen in the Canberra game last week and could very well take away any momentum the crowd builds. On his day, Ponga is arguably the hardest player to defend, and his presence could lead to some easy tries for his lethal wingers Dom Young and Greg Marzhew.
Key Player
Tyson Gamble
Without Jackson Hastings, Tyson Gamble has big shoes to fill handling the ball in the Knights’ attack. Gamble has proven to be one of the buys of the season, displaying tremendous improvement whilst possessing an infectious energy that has quickly spread across the side.
Gamble has produced over 350 kick metres in his last three games and will likely have less responsibility to gain metres with Clune in the side, giving him the chance to solely focus on setting up the Knights’ attack with Ponga. If Gamble can produce some early magic, he could very well be the reason Newcastle are into a preliminary final.
Key Stat
Newcastle have won four of the last five matchups and held the Warriors to under eight first-half points in six of the last eight games.
Prediction
Warriors by 10 points
First Try: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors)
Player of the Match: Wayde Egan (Warriors)
