With week one of finals in the rear-view mirror we now gear up for a huge Semi Final weekend.
Four teams will take the field in week two with two do-or-die clashes to decide who progresses to Preliminary Finals.
See our tips and predictions for 2023 finals week two below.
Melbourne versus Carlton
Friday - 7:50pm AEST – MCG
What a game we have to kick off finals week two.
While we often underrate the side that finished top four and overrate the Elimination Final winner, this one genuinely seems just about a toss of a coin.
The last time the sides met was Round 22 with Carlton saluting 60-56 in somewhat controversial fashion. Expect this one to be a similarly tight tussle.
Melbourne enters this game with all of the pressure on them as they look to avoid a second consecutive straight sets exit, while the Blues may already feel accomplished having ticked off winning a final having done so against Sydney at the MCG last Friday.
Will that pressure make or break Melbourne? Will Carlton be content with where they’re at already? These questions will be answered on Friday night.
Both sides will be without key players as the Demons lose Angus Brayshaw and Jacob Van Rooyen while the Blues are without Harry McKay and Jack Martin.
With the sides evenly matched and both strong in the contest, expect this one to be a bit of a defensive slog with big bodies bashing and crashing all night.
One big issue that’s plagued Melbourne is their mid-to-forward line connection, and with Van Rooyen out, even more rests on Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett’s shoulders.
Luckily for the Dees, McKay and Martin’s absence will mean that their defence will back themselves to not let Carlton’s forward line dominate, even if Charlie Curnow gets off the chain.
One thing that Melbourne can’t do again is get off to a slow start, with their first quarter ultimately costing them in the Qualifying Final loss to Collingwood.
If they can get off to a good start, we know how well the likes of Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca work into games.
For the Blues, they’ll be hoping for a game that favours stoppage as they’ll rotate a raft of midfielders through contested situations while Melbourne will rest on their big four in Gawn, Oliver, Petracca and Jack Viney.
If the Dees bring their momentum from late in the Collingwood loss into this game, they should be strong enough to continue their campaign.
But if the Blues get up early in the piece, it’s anyone’s game.
It’d be bold to back the Demons to go winless in September again, so we’re with Melbourne … just.
Tip: Melbourne by 8 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide versus GWS
Saturday - 7:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
A big, big sound heads to the Adelaide Oval this weekend in search of another scalp and the Giants will meet a Port Adelaide outfit with plenty at stake.
These sides last met in Round 22 – a clash where Port Adelaide romped to a 51-point triumph – but a month later the circumstances couldn’t be more different.
It was a clash that started a late-season resurgence for Ken Hinkley’s side, who marched into the finals on the back of three straight wins.
But a walloping at the hands of Brisbane last week brought the Power back to earth. Despite bettering the Lions in clearance and contest, Port Adelaide conceded massive scores from stoppage as their defensive structures fell apart.
Champion Data statistics suggest the Power’s game forward of centre has also dropped off, averaging three goals less from the forward half since Round 20.
It’s a stark contrast to the Giants, who whacked Essendon the week after losing to Port Adelaide before defeating Carlton by six goals.
A strong Elimination Final win over the Saints – where Adam Kingsley’s side was far too quick and tough outside the contest – suggests the Giants are deservedly among the final six teams.
They will be advantage by the return of Stephen Coniglio from an eye injury, but Port Adelaide’s selection isn’t as clear cut. All of Charlie Dixon, Trent McKenzie and Dylan Williams are battling to be fit.
But they’re not the most important players on the ground. Zak Butters (34 disposals, seven clearances), Connor Rozee (29 disposals, six clearances) and Jason Horne-Francis (27 disposals, three goals) carved up the Giants in Round 22 and Kingsley hinted during his press conference that he won’t let it happen again.
If he’s right, and the Giants don’t allow Port Adelaide repeat entries through midfield dominance and can instead get the ball on the outside, watch out for another upset.
The fact it’s at Adelaide Oval, where the Giants are 3-3 against the Power, won’t prove an issue either.
Tip: GWS by 13 points.
Seb Mottram