Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Friday night's Semi Final between Melbourne and Carlton at MCG.
Petracca and Oliver to combine for 45+ disposals, Petracca to kick 1+ goal
For the Demons to get up, they need their prime movers to fire.
Clayton Oliver was superb against Collingwood last week with 31 disposals, 11 clearances and 10 tackles.
Christian Petracca was decent in picking up 29 touches, six clearances and six inside 50s.
The star Dees pairing simply must step up again for their team to progress to a prelim final, so we’ll side with them to combine for (at the very least) 45 disposals.
Petracca will also be required to chime in from a scoring perspective so we’re banking on him to kick at least one goal.
May and Lever to combine for 8+ marks
Much has been said and written about Melbourne’s key defensive duo Steven May and Jake Lever leading into this final against the Blues.
Harry McKay’s absence from the Carlton forward line should allow one of May or Lever to impact heavily in the air, especially from an intercept viewpoint.
When the two sides last met in Round 22, May and Lever only combined for seven marks, but if the Demons are to win they will have to be more impactful than that.
We’re backing the duo to combine for at last eight marks given May averages 5.4 and Lever averages 5.3 in 2023.
Andrew Slevison
Charlie Curnow to kick 2+ goals
Charlie Curnow simply has to hit the scoreboard in a big way for Carlton to win on Friday night.
While they did the job against Sydney with Curnow held to just one major, he’ll have a lot more pressure on him in this one.
With Harry McKay and Jack Martin both out, Curnow will be Carlton’s go-to man more than ever and he should get plenty of chances inside 50.
The Coleman Medallist has kicked a whopping 79 goals from 24 games in 2023 and kicked two to go with seven marks in the win over Melbourne in Round 22.
He’ll have to do that at a minimum on Friday if his team is to progress.
Patrick Cripps to have 25+ disposals
Carlton captain Patrick Cripps was well held in his first final.
With Callum Mills and a rib injury to deal with, Cripps was kept to just 21 disposals and one goal.
Luckily for the 28-year-old, he’ll head into this clash knowing he’ll get a lot more freedom against a Melbourne side that’ll back themselves in at the contest.
In a game that looks destined to be hard and stoppage-based, Cripps could have a fill-up on the MCG.
He kicked one goal and had 29 touches last time out against the Demons, and you’d back him to have a similar impact in this one.
This game could come down to a battle of the midfields and Cripps will rise to the Semi Final occasion.
Lachlan Geleit
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