The 2023 AFL finals series was flipped on its head over the weekend with both Melbourne and Port Adelaide going out in straight sets.
With Carlton and GWS winning through to Preliminary Finals from fifth and seventh respectively, it’s the first time since 2014 where two sides from outside the top four will play off for a spot in a Grand Final.
Since 2010, only eight teams from outside of the top four have made it all the way to week three and their performances in the next stage have been mixed.
While the Dogs in 2016 famously went all the way after finishing in seventh, only two other teams have prevailed in Prelims coming from outside of the top four since 2010.
With that in mind, we took a look at the eight Preliminary Finals that sides from outside the top four have played in since 2010.
Do these results give Carlton and GWS fans an idea of what to expect? We won’t know until this time next week.
Every Preliminary Final that sides from fifth to eighth have played in since 2010.
2014
Sydney (1) def (6) North Melbourne, 136-65, Stadium Australia.
Hawthorn (2) def (5) Port Adelaide, 97-94, MCG.
2015
West Coast (2) def (8) North Melbourne, 80-55, Subiaco.
2016
GWS (4) def by Western Bulldogs (7), 83-89, Giants Stadium.
2018
West Coast (2) def Melbourne (5), 121-55, Optus Stadium.
2019
Collingwood (4) def by GWS (6), 52-56, MCG.
2021
Port Adelaide (2) def by Western Bulldogs (5), 45-116, Adelaide Oval.
2022
Geelong (1) def Brisbane (6), 120-49, MCG.
So, what to take from all of this?
Well, it’s clearly hard to win these games from outside the top four, but the 3-5 record that sides hold from outside the top four since 2010 isn’t all that bad given where they finished on the ladder comparatively … even if two of those wins came against sides that finished fourth.
For GWS, they’ll take some confidence knowing that they beat Collingwood in a Preliminary Final from sixth in 2019, but in that season the Magpies finished fourth. In 2023, they finished minor premiers and teams ranked first haven’t lost to a side outside of the top four in a Prelim since 2010.
In the two games since 2010, where first played a side from sixth or seventh, they won by a combined 142 points.
For Carlton, coming from fifth to play second has happened three times. While West Coast (2) flogged Melbourne (5) by 66 points in 2018, the Dogs won from fifth against the Power in 2021 and the Power got within a goal of the Hawks from that spot in 2014.
While GWS will need to break the trend to beat the Magpies, the Blues might be statistically more of a hope than many think if history tells us anything.