Collingwood’s scoring power in Saturday’s Grand Final is set to prove a major concern.
That’s the message from David King, who warns the Magpies won’t be able to rebound off defensive 50 against Brisbane in the season decider as they did against GWS in the prelim.
Collingwood has kicked just 17 goals in the last fortnight, while Brisbane has kicked 30.
But taking a deeper look at the issues beneath, King is concerned with a key area relating to Collingwood’s scoring options.
“When you look at scoring profiles, I tend to go a bit deeper than the flat number. How are they scoring and how aren’t they scoring,” King began on SEN’s Whateley.
“At the moment, they’ve really only got one asset and that’s scoring off half-back. On the weekend, that netted 6.2, so 38 points of their 58 come from that springboard off half-back.
“That’s as much as GWS’ ball use forward of centre as it is about Collingwood. They had 41 intercepts at half-back, that area from the centre circle to the top of 50, that little 30 or 40-metre wedge. 41 intercepts is a ridiculous number, +15 contested possessions on GWS in that zone.
“I’m telling you now Brisbane won’t give them that. Collingwood might get them in other ways but they will not give the ball back because Jake Riccardi, Callum Brown, Jesse Hogan… the stocks at Brisbane are better…”
Craig McRae’s side also struggles to score from the front half, a model which may count against them.
“So if they can take that off Collingwood, where do they score? They haven’t got a forward-half game at the moment. 2.3 against Melbourne and 2.4 against GWS and everyone tells me to win premierships you need a great forward-half game,” King continued.
“They don’t have it. They’ve found ways to win and we tip our lid to them… but you are not doing that against the Brisbane Lions.”
Those issues will be compounded by the absence of Dan McStay, who won’t line up against his former club due to a knee injury suffered in the Preliminary Final.
McStay has kicked 20 goals from 14 games in 2023, averaging the third most goals per game behind Brody Mihocek and Jamie Elliott at Collingwood.
McRae, speaking post-game, suggested the Magpies will miss McStay’s contested marking presence.
“You can see why we get him, why he’s important to us. We need someone to mark the ball forward of centre and if he doesn’t get up, he’ll be missed,” the Collingwood coach said in the minutes after progressing to the Grand Final.
The 2023 AFL Grand Final between the Magpies and Lions at the MCG kicks off at 2:30pm AEST on Saturday.