It all comes down to this.
Collingwood v Brisbane in the 2023 AFL Grand Final at the MCG on Saturday.
The Magpies are chasing their first premiership since 2010 while the Lions are hunting for their first flag since 2003 (when they beat the Pies).
See our tips and predictions for the season decider below:
Andrew Slevison
The Lions enter this as the team in better form capable of kicking a score. Despite winning their two finals in 2023, the Magpies have struggled to put the score on the board. That doesn’t necessarily equate to a victory for Brisbane, but you just get the feeling they’re in slightly better nick than their opponents. The Lions possess an extremely dangerous attack with plenty of scoring options and that should hold them in good stead.
Craig McRae’s Pies know how to win and are capable of doing so, but Chris Fagan’s Lions have been working towards this for the past five years and should see off their MCG hoodoo and claim the flag.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 12 points
Norm Smith: Josh Dunkley (BRI)
Most Goals: Charlie Cameron (BRI) - 3 goals
Nic Negrepontis
Brisbane's recent form against Collingwood is hard to ignore. Their ability to score in finals is hard to ignore. The Magpies need to make key structural changes is hard to ignore. Continuity is king and Cam Rayner will separate the two teams in a game that breaks open in the second half.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 15 points
Norm Smith: Cam Rayner (BRI)
Most goals: Cam Rayner (BRI) - 3 goals
Lachlan Geleit
If this game was played on a simulator, at a neutral venue, in Round 14 … Brisbane probably wins by about four goals. That appears to be the gap between the sides both on paper and on form.
If you’re tipping with just your head, it is Brisbane. But if you take into account the intangible factors that the venue and big stage present, as well as the grit of the sides, I’ll lean towards Collingwood. There’s something about this team and their ability to simply just win. If they do get over the line though, it will be close, hence the tight margin.
Premiers: Collingwood
Margin: 10 points
Norm Smith: Nick Daicos (COL)
Most goals: Jamie Elliott (COL) - 3 goals
Seb Mottram
One team is peaking at the right time of the year, while one is fighting hard to hang onto its best. The Lions have every base covered across all lines, will enjoy the heat on Saturday and, most importantly, proved late in the season against Melbourne (losing by one point) their MCG hoodoo could be behind them.
I'm happy to tip Brisbane to back up from last week and go again given all the indications are Collingwood played its Grand Final against GWS.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 22 points
Norm Smith: Oscar McInerney (BRI)
Most goals: Brodie Mihocek (COL) - 4 goals
Hugh Fitzpatrick
This Grand Final is shaping up to be a dead-set cracker and it's fitting that the two best teams for the entire year will be doing battle on the biggest stage.
I almost feel bad that I'm tipping against the Pies as they've been the benchmark for the whole year and have done barely anything wrong.
But there's something about the Lions that has me gravitating towards them.
It just feels like this side has been building for this moment since 2019.
The obvious query is the MCG and the Collingwood crowd advantage, but if Chris Fagan's Lions can settle in the first 20 minutes, I think their attacking stars will be too much to handle on a sunny afternoon.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 26 points
Norm Smith: Lachie Neale (BRI)
Most goals: Eric Hipwood (BRI) - 4 goals
Laurence Rosen
So here it is. The biggest game on the AFL calendar is almost upon us and it has all the hallmarks of producing one of the great Grand Finals, as Collingwood and Brisbane do battle for the game’s ultimate prize.
While it’s true the Pies aren’t playing the swashbuckling football right now that they were in the middle part of the year, they cannot be discounted as a force purely on the body of work they’ve put together all season.
But these Lions look every bit the team ready to make history, having taken another step this year to turn into the battle-hardened outfit which finished top four, cruised through to the Grand Final and going undefeated at the Gabba.
These teams haven’t played at the MCG since 2017, but Brisbane has beaten Collingwood the last six times they’ve played.
With Taylor Adams and Dan McStay both missing, Collingwood will be forced into untimely forced structural change ahead of the Grand Final, while the only selection query at Brisbane is around whether defender Jack Payne will be risked.
This is as close a Grand Final has looked for a while, but Brisbane’s recent finals form coupled with Collingwood’s injury issues should see the Lions win in a classic.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 4 points
Norm Smith: Hugh McCluggage (BRI)
Most goals: Joe Daniher (BRI) - 3 goals
Jack Makeham
Plenty is going the way of Brisbane in this clash: Collingwood’s injuries, favourable matchups, and overall form… yet it’s hard to look past the Magpies on their home turf.
There’s just something special about the Pies on the MCG, having secured victory in some of the most improbable circumstances on a regular basis.
It’s poised to be a free-flowing contest of the highest quality, and one of Collingwood’s signature wins at the death seems like a stellar conclusion to one of the best years of footy in recent history.
Premiers: Collingwood
Margin: 7 points
Norm Smith: Jordan De Goey (COL)
Most goals: Charlie Cameron (BRI) – 3 goals
Charles Goodsir
The two best teams all season meet on the final Saturday of September, both looking to end relatively lengthy premiership droughts.
Collingwood have lost their past six matches against Brisbane including their two meetings in 2023. None of those matches were at the MCG where Brisbane have an abysmal 1-14 record at the venue in recent times.
The key to this match-up will be whose defence can best curtail the influence of the opposition forwards. Charlie Cameron has kicked 10 goals in the two meetings this season and poses as a genuine threat. Brody Mihocek, Bobby Hill, Jamie Elliott and Jack Ginnivan have also chimed in throughout the year with crucial performances.
The Lions deserve to be favourites on paper but as the minor premiers, Collingwood will be eager to prove their credentials and claim their 16th premiership.
Premiers: Brisbane
Margin: 19 points
Norm Smith: Keidean Coleman (BRI)
Most Goals: Charlie Cameron (BRI) - 4 goals