I’m not foolish enough to think this 2024 ladder prediction will be anywhere close to the end result but the process of assessing each team, looking for positives and negatives is a fun one.
It’s also one that tells me 2024 could be the most competitive season yet.
The AFL is becoming very NFL-like with the ‘on any given day anyone can beat anyone’ mantra becoming a reality in our competition as well.
Brisbane, Collingwood and perhaps Carlton feel like the standouts to me and I’m happy to state West Coast, North Melbourne and likely Hawthorn will be down the bottom end … but the dozen or so in between could land anywhere.
Having stated my disclaimer - here is how I see the 2024 ladder landing…
6 to 1
Position: 6th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Tanner Bruhn. I reckon he has all the makings. He’s elusive inside the contest and has fast feet. He’s developing as a nice kick on both feet, and he’s very committed to the contest work.
He’s building nicely. He was thrown around last season. Confident he becomes a really good AFL mid.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
A return to homely comforts this season. New stadium sure, but I think with veterans returning and others resuming in good health, GMHBA will again become hard - maybe impossible - to leave with the W.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Jack Bowes becomes mini-Mitch Duncan in the back area. Duncan is a year older, and Bowes displays some similar qualities with his vision and touch when kicking the footy. He was good in patches last season.
Worry: The old boys all drop at once. Tom Hawkins is 36 in July, Zach Tuohy is 34, Patrick Dangerfield is 34 in April, Mitch Duncan is 33 in June, Rhys Stanley is 33, Mark Blicavs is 33 in March, Cam Guthrie is 32 in August… what if half of those guys wind up at once?
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
The evolution away from a forward line built around Tom Hawkins. Jeremy Cameron is able to roam because of Hawkins’ presence.
Cameron may need to be the 30-70m key forward who gets isolated and wins contests with Tyson Stengle roaming around him.
Position: 5th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Big boy Brodie.
Brodie Grundy would probably have the biggest chip on his shoulder in the history of the game. Moved on by the club who gave him a ‘lifetime’ deal only to see them win the thing a season later.
It was a failed experiment alongside the other best ruckman in the era sees him at club No. 3 in three short seasons… he’s 29… he was healthy most of last season. I reckon there’s one more big season in him.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Tommy McCartin keeps rolling along, doing the job on all the gun forwards without much fanfare or love from the outside world.
Paddy is gone, Dane Rampe is getting on… but Tom keeps knocking over these gun forwards. He’s barely lost a contest since the 2022 Grand Final.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: The forward mix is a net plus in life after Buddy.
Joel Amartey, Hayden McLean and Logan McDonald can be the 3 whilst Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley form a dynamic duo. Will Hayward and others as pressure/hard-working running forwards and it’s a very diverse and capable group.
Worry: Hayden McLean… he showed plenty late in the season when he got the gig as No. 1 ruck. Well, Grundy has that job now so can McLean go back to being a developing forward/ruck?
As a forward, he’s in that Callum Coleman-Jones or Tom De Koning mould… better in the ruck and limited as a forward. Will McLean regress with Grundy’s arrival?
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Isaac Heeney… 2022: 16.4 disposals and 49 goals. 2023: 15.5 disposals and 30 goals. Kicked 5 v WCE when they rolled them by 171 points, otherwise he only kicked 3 twice all season.
When his form dipped, they used him as a big-bodied on-baller and I recall him doing a fantastic job around stoppage opposed to Patrick Cripps.
Use him in one or the other in 2024 — a dangerous medium forward who you can isolate now Buddy is gone or a big dynamic on-baller who can play on an opponent and then work off them… just worried he’s always in between.
Position: 4th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
The encore from Izak Rankine__ as he develops more and more in the role Adelaide wants him to play.
And Josh Rachele… natural maturation? Clubs found out he’d almost always played the game on his terms… GWS roughed him up and he lost his way.
Hopefully, he’s past that, he’s precisely the blend of pace and burst Adelaide needs around the ball.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
They’ll be deadly at home. They won both Showdowns, blew the Blues away in Gather Round, smoked Brisbane and took the Pies to the brink.
And they score heavily at that joint. The most lethal home ground advantage in AFL footy at the moment?
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe come on and assist Walker more. Taylor Walker may kick 70 next season, but it’s asking plenty.
Can Fogarty jump up from 34 to 45? Can Thilthorpe jump from 18 in 21 games to 30 in 21 games? With Rankine, Rachele and others, that will be enough.
Worry: Mids remain same-same. Rachele needs to go in permanently. Rankine can attend stoppages.
I said in 2023 that there should never be a stoppage in Adelaide’s forward half where either Rankine or Rachele are not there. Same goes for 2024.
Jordan Dawson is a superstar and he’s got more run than Matt Crouch and Rory Laird but they can become very much inside, contest and small with others like Sam Berry in there as well.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Key backs? Tom Doedee is gone. Nick Murray and Jordon Butts off injury layoffs… I’m sorry Dan Curtin, we may need you from the jump… at 197cm and 94kg, maybe he’s ready.
Position: 3rd
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Lachie Schultz
This is a shrewd piece of recruiting from the Pies’ list management group. I think we’ll all truly work out how dangerous and potent the former Docker is after half a season.
Think Tom Papley… 15+ disposals, maybe 1.8-2.0 goals per game… All-Aus contender for mine.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
There will be no drop-off whatsoever from Nick Daicos. None whatsoever. The young man is one of the sport’s great professionals. Some of the legends about the way he prepares and plans for his footy are remarkable.
Should he ever veer off course, he has one of the all-time great preparers to learn from, Scott Pendlebury.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: There’s upside in this squad. Ash Johnson and Nathan Kreuger have shown glimpses across their brief and interrupted careers.
They love Kreuger - he was rushed back in off a long layoff, but the ship had sailed on his season. Can he get the best from his body? I’ve said this before, he’s one of the game’s best athletes… but your best ability as an athlete is your availability.
Johnson’s talent is clear for all to see. And his need to mature and grow is as well… see the VFL viral video of him showing the ball to the crowd for evidence.
Love his game, love his burst and athletic ability. Even effort and even buy-in to all facets of the game are what he needs.
Worry: Will the message continue to get through with the same venom and vigour?
Craig McRae has openly stated he likes to use themes and angles to motivate and inspire his group. We saw Damien Hardwick be able to do that for five years, McRae is into year three, can he keep going to the well?
Any emotional drop-off from them would see an immediate dip in performance because they lean into connectivity and belief as much as they do system and set-ups.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
The defence could quickly need a rebuild. Nathan Murphy has had his issues and even when fit he’s one of those system-type guys anyhow.
Billy Frampton is able to fulfil specific needs only. Jeremy Howe is 34 in the middle of next season.
And without Dan McStay for all of 2024, there will be a need for someone alongside Brody Mihocek. Does the Cox/Cameron tandem continue (they showed signs of sacking that) or can Johnson or Kreuger come in and perform?
Position: 2nd
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Full noise. Full momentum. They skimped past a coaching sacking campaign and came out the other side as a force.
What do they look like without the coaching query… and with belief and some September success? You got to be excited Blues fans…
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Sam Walsh plays every game and wins the Brownlow Medal.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: I hope Jacob Weitering’s calf issues take as long as it takes and we never hear about his calf again in 2024 because if we do - and for as long as we do - the Blues are in strife.
Worry: We worry about the Blues doing ‘Blues things’, I mean, I am not really worried about it, but I guess some Blues fans will be.
The worry will be who covers these gun forwards should No. 23 suffer any type of recurring issues with that baby cow.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Rucks and forwards… they went to the method I think works best for them, but they went to it too late and had no choice but to roll with two rucks, two key forwards and no Jack Silvagni.
I like them best like this… Tom De Koning 75 per cent ruck, Harry McKay as back-up ruck (maybe Jack Silvagni as 5-10 min across the game if Harry is kicking goals) and Charlie Curnow doing what Charlie needs to do.
There will be a role for Marc Pittonet but not every week and probably not when the whips are cracking.
Position: 1st
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Version 2.0 with genuine finals experience and success.
Making a Grand Final is success, not failure, and they played a mammoth game on Grand Final day against an enormous Collingwood army.
They were probably a Steele Sidebottom long bomb away from victory… what does the encore look like?
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
A force to be reckoned with. There will be no drop off in form. Deadly at The Gabba and more and more competitive and competent on the road.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Eric Hipwood has some Joe Daniher-like maturation and totally fulfils his potential. I like him - and he may be a case of he is what he is - but any more slight improvement sees him - and them - explode.
Worry: I’m not worried about anything.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Developing more kickers in the back half of the ground. Keidean Coleman is electric by foot but teams will clamp him moving forward. Tom Doedee comes in but he’s an average kick, nothing more nothing less. Does Darcy Wilmot’s kicking come on with added experience? __Brandon Starcevich also.
Dayne Zorko kicks the ball well. Lachie Neale is pretty solid. Jarrod Berry is only ok. Hugh McCluggage__ is good around the ground, can they pinch one more excellent kick?
