Nathan Buckley has a Joel Selwood-less Geelong missing finals in 2024, suggesting the Cats have underestimated the absence of one of their all-time greats.
The Selwood era came to a close following the 2022 Grand Final, with the AFL’s longest serving captain and the heartbeat of Geelong stepping away in the perfect premiership circumstances.
Yet last year saw Patrick Dangerfield’s Geelong suffer a rough start, with an injury crisis taking hold and the Cats missing finals for the first time since 2015.
Referencing how Bill Belichick feared his side couldn’t win without Tom Brady and Alastair Clarkson’s Hawthorn struggled without Luke Hodge, Buckley holds similar concerns for a Selwood-less Geelong.
“I reckon the departure of Joel Selwood, we discussed it a bit and it’s only been 12 months… I think this way with Collingwood and (Scott) Pendlebury a bit, Collingwood’s biggest challenge is going to be when Pendles steps out,” Buckley began on SEN Breakfast.
“I just wonder what this year is going to look like for Geelong.
“I’m not saying Chris Scott can’t win without Selwood, but I think at Geelong it’s going to be tough.. I think we underestimated the loss of Joel Selwood – if you could ever do that – and I think it was compounded by Cam Guthrie pretty much not playing at all.
“I think if Cam Guthrie has a good year this year I think Geelong can buffer a bit, but I don’t think you can ever replace a player, a character, a drive, ambition, competitiveness… I think it takes a whole heaps of elements to bring a successful team together but there’s a special sauce and it’s an on-field leader who brings a grunt, a desire and a will.”
Guthrie has been training fully during the 2024 pre-season after turf toe corrupted his 2023 season.
Selwood retired as the Cats’ games record holder, a four-time premiership player, premiership captain and the ultimate respect of the footy public following his fairy tale finish.
A renowned tough midfielder with a fierce leadership style on the field, Selwood’s absence can’t be quantified both as a midfielder or as a leader.
But Buckley also acknowledged the difference in leadership styles between Selwood and successor Dangerfield.
“I just remember when Geelong ran out onto the field in Round 1, Danger was leading them and there were smiles on their faces and I just thought that’s an immediate contrast to Joel Selwood,” Buckley continued.
“You can’t try and be Joel Selwood but I think you miss that drive and energy and I’d be fascinated where Geelong goes this year even 12 months down the track because I think it’s hard to replace, impossible to replace and I think there’s still some pain for them before they turnaround.”
Geelong spluttered throughout season 2023 and struggled for momentum, finishing with 10 wins and 12th on the ladder.
Opinion is divided on whether Scott – the most successful home and away coach of all time – can bounce his side back to September. Buckley is one who sees Geelong going the other way.
“I’ve always thought Geelong has had competitive advantages with their home ground and I think they can maximise that again… I don’t see them as a finals team,” he added.
“I think they’ve got the scope to be as low as eight wins and I think their highest is about 12. That’s where I’d have them, which is a big call given their home games and the quality of their coach and the pride of their experienced players.”
Scott has a contract at Geelong until the end of 2026 and is already the club's longest serving captain, however he has been linked to rival teams in recent years.