In the game of who’s the hardest team to pin down, to apply reasonable expectation to and to forecast the most likely landing spot, Essendon is the biggest conundrum.
Coach Brad Scott won’t participate in the prediction game. He describes it as waste of his time.
And fair enough too. Where would you start?
First year under his coaching the Bombers went 11 and 12 with a percentage just shy of 90 to finish 11th.
There was a signature win over Melbourne and a stirring performance on Anzac Day.
They conceded their place in the eight in Round 19 and finished with two horror performances against the Giants and Collingwood.
Perhaps those freshest memories fuel some of the pessimism surrounding the Bombers and it’s easy to ignore 11 and 12 is a good base from which to launch.
There’s a core of young early draft picks who are in the three to five-year bracket who should provide natural improvement.
There’s precocious young talent fresh from the draft.
And the four handpicked recruits will all play first up - Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Xavier Duursma and Todd Goldstein.
Scott has been expansive on building the culture and professional standards of the team.
He is unapologetic about playing the long game… crafting something sustainable and having a long term crack at success.
But he equally knows the supporter base is frustrated, impatient, even tormented.
He hears Matthew Lloyd’s observation that they’ll tear down the walls if the Bombers miss the eight again.
It’s a delicate line to walk.
Scott is making demands of his players, but those demands aren’t specifically about being successful right now.
So how do you peg them? What’s reasonable expectation and where is their likely landing spot?
Are they in the mix for the places at the bottom of the eight? Will they live mid table again? Or is it a step backward for the giant leap later?
I wonder where the Essendon nation sits days out from the season.
Are you playing the long game or ready to tear the joint down?
The whole scenario makes Saturday must-win territory against the Hawks.
As trajectories go, Essendon has to be ahead of its bitter rival.