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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 1

2024-03-13T17:20+11:00

After getting through Opening Round, all 18 teams will play for the first time this year in Round 1.

The round kicks off on Thursday with Richmond and Carlton facing off at the MCG, while a handful of other blockbuster games have been scheduled to welcome every club into the season officially.

See our tips and predictions for Round 1 below.

Carlton versus Richmond

Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – MCG

The classic Round 1 opener once again sees Carlton and Richmond battling it out at the MCG.

The Tigers will be heavily bolstered going into this one, with Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin and Toby Nankervis available for selection, while Carlton loses Sam Docherty and likely won’t get any key players back.

They will be missing potentially up to seven of their best 22, but coming off an incredible come-from-behind win over Brisbane, the Blues will be full of confidence.

Carlton got the monkey off their back in Round 1 of 2022, breaking a nine-year losing streak against the Tigers, but lost again later in the season and then we have last year’s infamous draw.

Despite the Blues being expected to be clearly better than Richmond in 2024, the mental demons will still be there for a lot of players.

Gold Coast dominated Richmond through the midfield last week and even with Martin returning, it’s hard to see Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and George Hewett not giving the Blues a clearance and territory advantage.

And when that happens, Carlton is tough to beat – particularly given Richmond don’t have great matchups on paper for Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

That supply going forward will likely be the downfall of the Tigers on Thursday night.

Having said that, this is a great chance for Adem Yze’s men to claim a scalp given the personnel Carlton is missing.

Tip: Carlton by 25 points

Nic Negrepontis

Collingwood versus Sydney

Friday - 7:40pm AEDT – MCG

Two of the clubs who kickstarted their respective seasons in Opening Round meet at the MCG on Friday night.

Collingwood’s premiership defence did not start well, going down to GWS by 32 points. Sydney, on the other hand, commenced nicely with a 22-point triumph over Melbourne.

It already shapes as an important clash for the Magpies who will be intent on avoiding a 0-2 start.

Craig McRae’s Pies beat the Swans by 29 points at the MCG in Round 8 last year. On that occasion, Brody Mihocek was best on ground, booting five goals and picking up three Brownlow votes. He tuned up nicely for this with a return of 3.2 in last week’s loss to GWS.

Swans recruit Brodie Grundy comes off a match-winning performance against former club Melbourne in which he got the better of Max Gawn. He now faces his original club and another ex-teammate in Darcy Cameron in what looms as another critical ruck battle.

The Pies had enough of the ball inside forward 50 against the Giants last week, they were just a bit sloppy with their execution in front of goal.

If they can fix that, they should be good enough, but the Swans will not be an easy proposition.

Tip: Collingwood by 9 points.

Andrew Slevison

Essendon versus Hawthorn

Saturday - 1:45pm AEDT – MCG

Two very different sets of expectations will meet on Saturday when Essendon and Hawthorn come together at the MCG.

On one side, a club that has poured plenty into the now and boasts the list profile to be playing finals footy and regularly accounting for the sides below them.

On the other, a team that is missing at least five of its best 22 through injury, in the midst of a deep rebuild and all up, has little to prove on Saturday afternoon.

Essendon – a club that has perennially underperformed across the last decade and more – will have little to no excuses against the Hawks, who have arguably exceeded expectations after a deep list cut and claimed the scalps of Collingwood and Brisbane last year.

The Bombers should welcome all of Ben McKay, Todd Goldstein, Xavier Duursma and Jade Gresham to its Round 1 team, a quartet that should significantly strengthen the best 22. With that in mind and after a long summer following two comprehensive defeats against GWS and Collingwood to end 2023, it would be underwhelming to see Essendon come out any less than breathing fire.

How much have Brad Scott’s standards really infiltrated Essendon in his second pre-season? We’ll know more by Saturday night. Hawthorn hasn’t knocked off Essendon since this fixture in 2021 and was famously slow out of the gates last year in losing its first two games of 2023 by a combined 140 points.

Despite missing key players, recruits in Jack Gunston, Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan should add plenty of potency inside 50 and could make this a high scoring contest.

But win, lose or draw, the expectations on Essendon in 2024 will ensure Brad Scott’s men are the headline out of this clash.

Tip: Essendon by 15 points.

Seb Mottram

GWS versus North Melbourne

Saturday - 4:35pm AEDT – Engie Stadium

Are the Giants the team to beat in the season’s early stages?

GWS mustered an impressive performance in Opening Round, felling the reigning premiers by a convincing margin in what was clearly a revenge game for their preliminary final heartbreak in 2023.

With their demons now in the rear-view mirror, the Giants will be licking the lips at the prospect of taking on last year’s second-worst team, with an early season win streak already on the cards.

Yet entering the second year under the leadership of Alastair Clarkson, North Melbourne will be keen to prove they’re no easy beat.

The Kangaroos took the pre-season by storm with their revamped game style, moving the ball with pace and attacking the corridor in a fashion that was quickly dubbed “Northball.”

With future stars of the competition such as Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw poised to get more experience under their belts, and top prospects Colby McKercher and Zane Duursma set to make their debuts, the future is bright at North.

But that future hasn’t arrived yet, and this clash has all the makings of the Giants laying a beating on a young Roos side that looks incredibly vulnerable on the defensive end.

Yet with Northball ready to make its home and away season debut, and the Kangaroos surprisingly boasting an undefeated record against the Giants in Sydney, could there be a chance for a stunning early season upset?

Tip: GWS by 34 points.

Jack Makeham

Geelong versus St Kilda

Saturday - 7:30pm AEDT – GMHBA Stadium

The Cats will officially unveil the redeveloped GMHBA Stadium and 14,000-seat Joel Selwood stand against the Saints on Saturday night.

While many have been big on St Kilda this pre-season as others expect Geelong to continue to slide, there’s no doubt Chris Scott’s side will still be a tough task for any side at Kardinia Park in 2024.

Historically, the Saints haven’t won at the venue since 1998, but this might be their best opportunity to do so since 2004 as St Kilda never played at the venue in Ross Lyon’s first stint at the club.

Geelong’s main concern in this game is their midfield with Cam Guthrie out injured and the Saints will look to get on top in the centre of the ground.

For the Saints, they’ll be most worried about the impact of Geelong’s tall forwards, particularly with Dougal Howard out injured.

On paper, both of these sides look incredibly even.

While you would probably lean towards the Saints if this game was at Marvel Stadium, it’s too hard to pick against the Cats at GMHBA Stadium until proven otherwise.

Tip: Geelong by 12 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Gold Coast versus Adelaide

Saturday - 8:10pm AEDT – People First Stadium

Gold Coast started life under Damien Hardwick off to a winning start with a resounding Opening Round win against Richmond last Saturday.

The Suns looked much improved on 2023 in that performance, with their on-ball unit and forward line in particular impressing with Matt Rowell and Ben King the standouts.

Although they’ve started well, the Crows should present more challenges than the Tigers did, and Gold Coast’s defence could be put under some serious pressure by Adelaide’s star-studded forward line that includes Izak Rankine, Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty, Josh Rachele and others.

Many expect Adelaide to continue their upward trajectory after improving in 2023, and if that does happen, they might simply be too strong for the home side in this one.

In saying that though, Gold Coast’s first showing was impressive and given that we’re yet to see what Adelaide can produce in 2024 thus far, the smart tip is with the Suns.

If they reproduce what they did against Richmond, they’ll be incredibly hard to stop at People First Stadium in 2024.

Tip: Gold Coast by 10 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Melbourne versus Western Bulldogs

Sunday - 1:00pm AEDT – MCG

This is one of the games of the round as the Bulldogs kick off their 2024 campaign at the MCG against the Demons who suffered an Opening Round defeat to Sydney.

Simon Goodwin’s Demons looked well below their best last week with their inability to connect with their forwards proving to be an ongoing and serious problem.

Given how much talent and how primed this list is, the connection between their midfield and forward line is still an issue and it will be interesting to see if they’ve made any changes heading into Sunday.

As for the Bulldogs, they’ve had a low-key off-season and head into the season with very little hype.

Their best is up there with the top teams in the competition, but their inconsistencies are a problem for Luke Beveridge’s side.

The natural progression of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton is a big watch this season as they enter the prime of their careers as key forwards.

They could be the best one-two punch in the competition come season end.

Taking a look at previous matches between the two sides, Melbourne holds a strong record having won three of their last four clashes with last year's game seeing the Demons dominate the Bulldogs to the beat of 50 points.

Melbourne’s forward line was on fire that day kicking 17 goals from their 30 shots on goal and they’ll naturally be looking to replicate that on Sunday.

Steven May and Jake Lever weren’t at their best last week and that’s something we haven’t seen in a long time and it’s impossible to see them looking at sea again on Sunday.

Expecting Goodwin’s backline to be at their stingy best and control the game out of defence.

Really hard game to tip a result.

Tip: Melbourne by 21 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Port Adelaide versus West Coast

Sunday - 4:00pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval

There couldn’t possibly be a better matchup to get Port Adelaide into an early season groove.

The Power have redemption on their minds after last year’s uninspiring straight sets finals exit and have been chomping at the bit to get themselves back into the flag hunt.

Meanwhile, West Coast find themselves at the exact opposite end of the spectrum, desperate to climb out of the cellar after claiming the wooden spoon last season.

Plenty of eyes will find their way to this clash to watch the debut of AFL’s hottest prospect Harley Reid, and while he didn’t set the world on fire during pre-season match sims, the home and away season is a different story.

For Port, this matchup gives them valuable further opportunities to assimilate new faces Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher into their backline, matching them up against the likes of Oscar Allen and Jack Darling.

Even with the Eagles looking healthier than they have in recent years (and yet still dealing with injuries), they look completely overmatched against a more than capable Port Adelaide side.

Getting their season underway in front of their home fans, expect the Power to treat this as nothing more than a tune-up.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 58 points.

Jack Makeham

Fremantle versus Brisbane

Sunday - 6:50pm AEDT – Optus Stadium

After being largely touted as premiership favourites, Brisbane must bounce back in Perth against a youthful Fremantle outfit.

Following their one-point loss to Carlton in Opening Round after leading by 46 points, the Lions will be looking to pick up their season as no team has become premiers after losing the first two games of the campaign.

The Dockers find themselves hopeful to rebound after a disappointing 2023 campaign finishing 14th, with three-time Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe back in the side and set to start on Sunday.

The midfield contest will be fiery, as the star-studded Brisbane outfit will have to be on their toes against a young Fremantle core with Caleb Serong at the centre of it, alongside Hayden Young who is poised for a breakout season in the middle of the ground.

In the last two years, Fremantle has put up a good fight against Brisbane in WA, only narrowly losing to the eventual Grand Finalists by three points last year.

Nevertheless, Brisbane’s experience should be too much for the Dockers to handle in all areas of the field, but don’t expect this game to be a roll over.

Tip: Brisbane by 17 points.

Harry Attiwill

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