Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Round 1 Thursday night clash between Carlton and Richmond.
CARLTON
Curnow to kick 3+ goals
Charlie Curnow looms as the likely major beneficiary of what looks a class differential between the Blues and Tigers.
Richmond allowed Ben King (five goals) and Jack Lukosius (three) to dominate last week and may lack the defensive structure in Adem Yze’s second game to quell a dual Coleman Medalist.
Curnow had six shots on goal in his last two games against the Tigers and in 2023 home and away games at the MCG overall, only once did he not kick multiple majors.
If Carlton’s midfield gets on top – as it is expected to do – Curnow will have a fill-up. But regardless, he’ll kick at least three.
Cerra to enjoy 25+ disposals, 5+ clearances
Michael Voss’ midfield was very settled in Opening Round.
Tom De Koning attended 90 per cent of centre bounces, with Adam Cerra, Patrick Cripps and George Hewett all present on 70 per cent of occasions.
It’s the former who has the most to prove on Thursday night, with Cerra now coming into his prime at 24 years of age and on the big stage.
Entering his third year as a Blue, Cerra has improved year on year at Carlton and is poised to become an out-and-out star in 2024.
His clearance game in Opening Round was elite and that will allow him to pick up at least another 25 touches against Richmond.
Seb Mottram
RICHMOND
Hopper to have at least 20 disposals
In seven matches against Carlton, Jacob Hopper has enjoyed himself from an individual perspective.
Hopper has averaged 23 disposals in past games against the Blues, including tallies of 24, 21, 27, 21, 21 and 31. His 18 on debut for Richmond in Round 1 last year has been his only quiet outing.
He has hit the 20-touch mark six times from seven against the navy blue.
After a solid showing in the Opening Round loss to Gold Coast with 23 touches and two goals, we’re backing Hopper to pick up at least 20 disposals in the Round 1 clash on Thursday night.
Bolton to kick at least 2 goals
Shai Bolton has kicked multiple goals in three of his last five against Carlton.
He was busy around the sticks in the two practice matches, booting four majors against Melbourne and three behinds against Collingwood.
Bolton then kicked three goals in last weekend’s season-opening loss to Gold Coast.
With Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch back and using precious Carlton defensive resources, Bolton has the opportunity to get off the leash on Thursday night.
We reckon two or more goals seems an appropriate return for the sublimely talented 25-year-old.
Andrew Slevison
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