The most concerning part of Collingwood’s 0-2 start to the season has been revealed by Champion Data.
While Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne wasn’t panicking after Collingwood’s Opening Round loss to GWS, he is beginning to worry after their Round 1 defeat to Sydney due to the scores they gave up on turnover.
In that 69-102 loss, the Magpies gave up 78 points on the turnover alone as Sydney made them pay almost every time they failed to execute out of the back half.
Hoyne compared those scores against on turnover to Geelong in 2023 and Port Adelaide in 2022 who both started poorly in that stat, leading to a shocking start to those respective campaigns.
“There have been two different reasons as to why they've lost so far, which probably is more concerning than actually just losing the same way,” Hoyne told SEN Sportsday.
“GWS first week, that's why I said, ‘Don't sort of panic about them’. They were able to generate 60 entries, generate a lot of forward half turnovers, be able to lock them in a lot of the time.
“But then when they got out, GWS, they got out, and then they scored off the back of that.
“From the weekend, it was their inability to be able to execute on the way out (of defence) and not be able to handle the pressure that Sydney were able to sort of put on them in the front half of the ground.
“The most concerning aspect for this, as I said at the start, the turnover game is everything, on average Collingwood last year conceded 40 points per game off their turnover work - they conceded 78 off the back of what Sydney dished up against them on the weekend.
“That's the most concerning part because last year at the same stage of the year Geelong were conceding similar numbers and everyone was sort of not panicking too much, and we know what happened with the Cats.
“Port Adelaide in 2022 when they lost their first five or six games of the year, people weren’t panicking much, but they were conceding very similar numbers of turnover.”
Another aspect that’s worrying Hoyne is Collingwood’s outnumber game on loose balls, given it was a hallmark of the way they played in 2022 and most of 2023.
Hoyne revealed that the Pies have dropped off significantly in that aspect apart from in the finals series when they were able to outnumber their opposition when the ball was in dispute, leading them to win all three of their games in September.
“What is of interest to me is … they want to outnumber, and they want to swarm and to do that, the only way that can succeed is your ability then to be able to win that ball that’s in dispute at ground level,” Hoyne said.
“If Collingwood don't win that ball, they are in big trouble because they're being exposed behind the footy.
“They've now lost that ball in 13 of their last 17 matches Collingwood which is a bit of a surprise, ironically of their four matches where they've won it. They won it on Grand Final day and they won it when they needed to against Melbourne in that first final.
“So probably the two most important games along with the Prelim where they won it.”
Hoyne also called out several Magpies who have dropped off individually in that aspect.
Despite this, he thinks the Magpies can quickly turn their fortunes around if they return to their best hunting loose balls in packs.
“I just wanted to put a couple of players on watch in this aspect of the game,” Hoyne said.
“So, Jordan De Goey has won one ground ball in general play over the first two weeks.
“He’s normally about four or five, but he’s had one in two weeks, which is a staggering number.
“Steele Sidebottom has been really good as a winger in this aspect of the game, he's won two in total.
“Josh Daicos, his other partner in on the wing, four in total in a two-week period.
“There's a couple of individuals at the moment that are just not getting their hands dirty and having the impact in this aspect of the game.
“If they do (get their hands dirty), I think things can change pretty quickly.”
Collingwood will hope to rebound when they face St Kilda at the MCG on Thursday night.
