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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 2

2024-03-20T16:55+11:00

Round 2 is almost upon us!

St Kilda hosts Collingwood in Spud’s Game at the MCG on Thursday before Adelaide hosts Geelong on Friday night.

There are three games each on Saturday and Sunday, while both Carlton and Brisbane have the bye this weekend.

See our tips and predictions for Round 2 below.

St Kilda v Collingwood

Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – MCG

You wouldn’t want to be loser of this one. Collingwood is staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start with Brisbane (away) to come, which would leave their premiership defence on shaky footing. Meanwhile St Kilda would be 0-2 with a loss and only 18% of teams historically have made finals from that position.

It’s fair to say this should be a cracking game with a bit at stake. The Saints should be bolstered by the return of prime ball mover Jack Sinclair and while they weren’t able to get the four points against Geelong last week, they didn’t disgrace themselves either. Had they kicked accurately, they easily could have pinched the four points.

The Magpies meanwhile look defensively disorganised, allowing Logan McDonald to kick three goals from the goal square against Sydney. Their backline has a lot to prove against a Saints forward line that can do some damage if it all clicks.

Collingwood has won five of their last six over the Saints and largely controlled this matchup in recent years. Having said that, it’s hard to believe in what we’ve seen from the Pies across the first fortnight of the season.

They look sloppy and the role players that have performed consistently above expectation for 18 months now have been exposed by deeper teams.

With Sinclair, Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitch Owens, Brad Hill, Liam Henry, Darcy Wilson, Riley Bonner and Mason Wood, the Saints have quality kicks and some line breaking speed that will be effective on the MCG.

Can Collingwood find their feet defensively? Will they be able to kick a winning score after putting up 82 and 69 to start the season? Which midfield will get on top given neither group is particularly deep?

This will be a fascinating contest and one that could shape the early part of the season.

TIP: St Kilda by 3 points.

Nic Negrepontis

Adelaide v Geelong

Friday - 7:40pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval

It’s not an eight-point game. But for a Round 2 clash, it’s not far off it either.

Adelaide needs to keep improving year on year under Matthew Nicks and for that to occur in 2024, finals are a necessity. Meanwhile, Geelong’s win against a speedy St Kilda outfit last week suggests the Cats are over their premiership hangover.

Is there room in the top eight for both of them? Perhaps not and the Crows will be desperate to avoid going 0-2 in front of their home fans.

For that to happen, Nicks needs his forward line to get back on track. The Crows’ 8.6.(54) against Gold Coast last week was their equal lowest score since Round 21, 2021.

Last year's leading goal kicker Taylor Walker controversially missed last week with a back concern but should return for Round 2 and in better conditions, Adelaide would be backing in its potency inside 50.

The Crows won nine of 13 at home last year, with two of its losses coming by just a point.

But Geelong has won two of its last three against the Crows at Adelaide Oval and would hold no fears of completing one of footy’s toughest tasks.

With 63 inside 50s against St Kilda and some 22 shots at goal, the Cats would fancy their chances in making this one a shootout.

But with Fremantle (away), Melbourne (home) and Carlton (away) to come for Nicks' troops, the Crows are most desperate for a win on Friday.

TIP: Adelaide by 8 points.

Seb Mottram

North Melbourne v Fremantle

Saturday - 1:45pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

Fremantle is coming off one of the most surprising wins of Round 1 when accounting for Brisbane despite conceding the first four goals.

Justin Longmuir’s Dockers were elite defensively, keeping the Lions goalless from the 13-minute mark of the first quarter until the 16-minute mark of the third term.

The Kangaroos were competitive against GWS for the most part but weren’t as robust defensively, conceding 17.19.(121) in their eventual 39-point defeat.

North’s star forward Nick Larkey was well beaten by Sam Taylor last weekend but still managed to end up with three goals. He helped himself to four when these sides last met in Round 2, 2023 in a one-point win to the Roos.

The Dockers lost key defenders Oscar McDonald (knee) and Brennan Cox (hamstring) during last week’s win. They’ll need to get creative to fill those holes against Larkey and the Roos.

In the Fremantle midfield, Caleb Serong had an absolute fill-up in a dominant showing against the Lions with a career-high 46 disposals. He averages 26.7 in four games against the Roos.

North’s Luke Davies-Uniacke was best on ground in this fixture early last season with 30 disposals. He started the 2024 season nicely with 29 touches against the Giants, and could be joined in the midfield by co-captain Jy Simpkin who is expected to return from concussion protocols.

The Dockers are favoured to salute in this and they really should get the job done to make it three wins on the trot in Victoria.

Alastair Clarkson’s Roos seem to have improved and the signs are promising, but they might fall just short against a Freo side on a high after beating last season’s Grand Finalists.

Tip: Fremantle by 20 points.

Andrew Slevison

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Saturday - 4:35pm AEDT – MCG

Hawthorn haven’t beaten Melbourne since 2018, and they’ll be hard-pressed to change that narrative on Saturday.

Simply put, both sides are on opposing sides of the contending/rebuilding spectrum and the Demons should simply be too strong and too experienced for the Hawks.

Last time the teams met it was Melbourne who prevailed 87-60, but the Hawks did stay in touch for the entire first half, only trailing by two points.

If they can do that again, they’ll be in with a sniff … but the Demons will back their on-ball unit of Christian Petracca, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney to work over James Worpel, Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward and Ned Reeves … particularly with Will Day out.

The marquee matchup of the day will be Steven May versus Mitch Lewis. If Lewis can get a hold of the star Dee, the Hawks will give themselves a chance.

But if May takes another scalp after beating Aaron Naughton last week, you just can’t see the Hawks having enough avenues to goal to win.

Expect the Demons to simply be too overpowering in this one.

Tip: Melbourne by 39 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Sydney v Essendon

Saturday - 7:30pm AEDT – SCG

Sydney will hope to keep their strong start to the season rolling when they host Essendon at the SCG on Saturday night.

While they’ll rightly go in hot favourites, games between these two sides have a funny habit of playing out differently than where the sides sit on the ladder.

Last time they met it was the Swans who prevailed by two points and in their last eight head-to-head meetings, the margin has only been more than 10 points to either side on one occasion.

Essendon would be thrilled if that was the case again, while Sydney will be expecting to put a handful of goals between them and the visitors.

While the Swans are without Callum Mills, Luke Parker and Taylor Adams, Isaac Heeney has starred in their absence and the Dons might need to look at sending someone his way.

If they can nullify his influence and get on top on-ball, it’ll give the Dons a decent chance of sending the footy deep inside 50 enough to create scores.

If they don’t and the Swans control proceedings from the stoppage, expect them to have too much class on their home ground and keep winning.

Tip: Sydney by 26 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast

Saturday - 1:00pm AEDT – Mars Stadium

Will Ballarat be the backdrop for the next chapter of the dream start to Damien Harwick’s Gold Coast tenure?

The Suns’ 2-0 start to the season is everything they have been hoping for under a new coach, having knocked off the Tigers and Crows up in Queensland.

Travelling for the first time all season, they’ll face off against a Bulldogs side who will be eager for redemption after their Round 1 loss.

Luke Beveridge’s men started strong against the Demons last week but quickly became outmatched, unable to quell Melbourne’s ball movement and ultimately falling by 45 points.

The Bulldogs conceded an astonishing 141 marks in that Sunday contest, playing a low-pressure defensive scheme that a kick-heavy Gold Coast attack could tear apart if adjustments aren’t made.

The Suns have their own share of concerns however, having faltered in the second half of a contest two weeks in a row, allowing both the Tigers and Crows to make late pushes despite early Gold Coast dominance.

Gold Coast doesn’t have a good history against the Bulldogs, having triumphed just once in this matchup since 2014, however this Dogs squad has some kinks to iron out and is yet to turn their trips to Ballarat into a reliable four points.

It could go either way, but the Suns have looked the better side in the very early days of this season.

Tip: Gold Coast by 8 points.

Jack Makeham

Richmond v Port Adelaide

Sunday - 4:00pm AEDT – MCG

Richmond and Port Adelaide resume hostilities at the MCG this Sunday.

The Tigers were much, much better in Round 1, pushing Carlton all the way only to end up with a five-point loss.

The Power opened their account with a comfortable 50-point triumph over West Coast, just as expected. They didn’t really need to get out of second gear.

Port’s main damage-doers were of course captain Connor Rozee and Zak Butters who combined for 54 disposals, 25 score involvements, 11 inside 50s and three goals. Jason Horne-Francis chipped in with 20 touches, 12 score involvements, five inside 50s and two goals.

The Tigers midfielders will have their work cut out for them in trying to quell the influence of the aforementioned trio.

Adem Yze will be much more positive entering this than he was prior to the Blues clash, knowing that his Tigers side has the capacity to get their hands dirty and have a real crack.

Getting minutes into Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch was vital and that premiership pair will be relied upon to provide some attacking vibrancy.

They do need to fill some defensive holes, however, after the devastating knee injury suffered by Josh Gibcus and the concussion sustained by Tylar Young. It looks as though Ben Miller will be called on to hold down a defensive position.

New Power ruckman Ivan Soldo steps out for the first time against his old club and will go head-to-head with his former captain and premiership teammate Toby Nankervis. It’s a fascinating match-up.

Underneath the feet of that battle, the Power should have too much quality especially after Richmond’s Dion Prestia succumbed to another soft tissue injury, leaving a void around the ball.

Ken Hinkley’s Port are intent on remaining a top four team in 2024 and you get the feeling they’ll have enough in their arsenal to overcome a plucky Tigers outfit still striving to get their first win under Yze.

Furthermore, it’s Travis Boak’s 350th game and the Power have a fairly good record in Boak milestone matches, winning five of six.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 14 points.

Andrew Slevison

West Coast v GWS

Sunday - 6:50pm AEDT – Optus Stadium

GWS will win this game, convincingly. Nevertheless, the matchup opens the opportunity for the Giants to build upon the momentum gained from the first two rounds.

Off the back of two dominant wins to open the 2024 campaign, GWS will be looking for a percentage booster against a West Coast team that has started as expected, poor.

The situation has gone from bad to worse for the wooden spoon holders with the recent news of their captain, and last year’s leading goal kicker Oscar Allen set to be sidelined for six to eight weeks.

This adds to an extensive injury list at the Eagles, who will be forced to make several changes, one of which being the demotion of Andrew Gaff following a disappointing start to the season.

GWS’ forward line will be relinquishing the opportunity to face a depleted West Coast defence, with the competition's leading goal kicker Jesse Hogan set to cause carnage on Sunday night.

Emerging Brownlow candidate Tom Green is poised to build upon his dominant start to the season where he amassed 67 disposals and two goals over the first two rounds.

All eyes will be on Harley Reid yet again, who impressed in his debut last week with 16 disposals on only 72% game time and yet the question arises of how he will perform against a star-studded GWS midfield outfit.

The result of this game goes without saying, with GWS assured to pick up the four points yet the question begs, by what margin?

Tip: GWS by 55 points.

Harry Attiwill

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