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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 3

2024-03-27T17:30+11:00

Round 3 kicks off on Thursday night.

Brisbane hosts Collingwood in a reprise of the 2023 Grand Final with both sides winless.

We have two fixtures on Good Friday as North Melbourne clash with Carlton and Fremantle meets Adelaide.

There are two solid games on Saturday, two fixtures on Sunday and the Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong.

See our tips and predictions for Round 2 below.

Brisbane v Collingwood

Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – Gabba

How did we get here?

Last year’s runners-up, Brisbane, and last year’s premiers, Collingwood, meet in Round 3 without a win between them.

The Lions are 0-2 and fresh after a bye while the Magpies find themselves with a 0-3 record. The significance of this match should not be lost on anyone.

Chris Fagan’s Brisbane side have shown glimpses in their two games, producing arguably the best quarter of footy of 2024 to date against Carlton in Opening Round. They started strongly against Fremantle, but were worked out on the run.

They will have stewed over that result during their bye week and you’d have to imagine they will be utterly primed for this.

Co-captain Lachie Neale returns to the Lions’ lineup and has a great recent record, picking up 10 Brownlow votes in his last four home and away outings against the Pies.

Over in the Collingwood camp, Craig McRae has a few problems to sort out.

The Pies have conceded scores of 114, 102 and 94 which suggests that their defence is in disarray and they’re being beaten around the ball.

Are they a good enough team to rectify their shortcomings? Having won the flag just four games ago, you’d think so, but they do have to face a team that went undefeated at home over 13 games in 2023.

The Lions have won their last four meetings with the Magpies at the Gabba and revenge for last year’s Grand Final is on the agenda.

While it’s no certainty whatsoever, the Lions might just have too much firepower in attack and should open their account at home.

Tip: Brisbane by 8 points.

Andrew Slevison


North Melbourne v Carlton

Friday - 4:20pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

Carlton will be looking to extend their undefeated run when they take on North Melbourne on Good Friday in what looms as a danger game.

The Roos will be up and about in front of a big home crowd on their biggest stage for the year and will be looking for their first win of the season.

When they met on this night 12 months ago, it was a genuinely even affair separated by the Roos kicking 11.18 to Carlton’s 16.11 – as well as the fact that Aiden Bonar (188cm) was playing on Charlie Curnow.

This time around it’ll be Toby Pink, Kallan Dawson and potentially Charlie Comben faced with the task of combatting Curnow and the in-form Harry McKay.

The twin towers combined for 10 goals on Good Friday last year and feel a red-hot chance to do it again given the advantage they’ll have in the air.

Carlton has been surprisingly poor from a clearance standpoint so far this season. Richmond beat them up in the middle and at contested ball in Round 1, something the Blues dominated across 2022 and 2023 under Michael Voss.

They’re ranked 16th for clearances per game so far, while the Roos are ranked 13th. It’s a big opportunity for Luke Davies-Uniacke, George Wardlaw, Tom Powell, Jy Simpkin and the Roos’ on-ball brigade to gain a territory advantage.

The Blues rightly go in comfortable favourites – and the return of Jacob Weitering certainly bolsters that – but the Kangaroos will be plucky. The question will be whether they can put it on the scoreboard and worry Carlton.

Tip: Carlton by 31 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Fremantle v Adelaide

Friday - 7:30pm AEDT – Optus Stadium

Matthew Nicks finds himself where no AFL coach wants to be on Friday night, desperately needing to win a game he’s not expected to.

If Adelaide loses to the Dockers and goes 0-3, the Crows will be fighting to be just the third team since 2012 to play finals from that starting record.

The fact Nicks signed a contract extension just last week doesn’t help the narrative.

After being within a goal-umpiring blunder of finals last year, Adelaide needs a win to prove it hasn’t taken a step backwards. But Nicks has clearly got the Crows playing with the desired intensity. Adelaide is averaging the most tackles of any club per game to start the season.

On the flip side, Justin Longmuir has kept the coaching wolves at bay to start the season with impressive wins over both Brisbane and North Melbourne.

Now in his 5th year at the helm, the knock on Longmuir’s coaching has always been a slow, controlled style of footy that has seemingly been at odds with the modern game. And while the Dockers remain one of the worst teams at getting the ball inside 50 through two games this year, Longmuir’s forward 50 has become the most potent in the game in terms of goal efficiency.

In both wins, Fremantle has convincingly lost the inside 50 count but has won by a combined 49 points. Has Longmuir proven he can do it his way?

Optus Stadium plays host to a clash where there is plenty at stake.

Tip: Fremantle by 12 points.

Seb Mottram


Essendon v St Kilda

Saturday - 4:20pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

We saw the full scope of what the ‘Essendon edge’ is in Saturday’s loss to Sydney, with Brad Scott’s Bombers playing with physicality and aggression that occasionally went over the line.

While the Bombers are trying to play tough, that won’t both a St Kilda side – particularly one under Ross Lyon – and as a result, we could be set to see some fireworks on Easter Saturday under the roof.

The Saints are buoyed on the back of claiming the scalp of reigning premiers Collingwood last Thursday, but since then, they’ve been further decimated with Max King (suspension), Mason Wood (collarbone) and Liam Henry (hamstring) joining the lengthy list of key outs.

The Bombers also lose their key forward Peter Wright to suspension but could be boosted by the returns of Mason Redman and Dary Parish.

With the keys out at either end, we could be set for a lower-scoring game as both teams will back in their defences to get the job done aerially.

That probably plays into St Kilda’s hands given how strong they are in that aspect of the game, while Essendon have lacked in that area in recent years.

St Kilda should be good enough system-wise to get the job done here even without some big names but don’t expect it to be by a huge margin without King.

If they can keep Essendon to 70 points or less, they’ll win … let’s see if that plays out on Saturday afternoon.

Tip: St Kilda by 12 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Saturday - 7:30pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval

The Power will face their biggest test of the young season when they welcome the Demons onto their home turf.

Port has been perfect to this point in 2024, having mustered a comeback victory against a pesky Richmond outfit last week, however they are yet to play another side that has any notches in the win column.

With strong wins over the Hawks and Bulldogs, as well as a respectable showing against the currently undefeated Swans, Melbourne enters this clash as the toughest task the Power have face yet.

The Demons have been the most dominant defensive team so far in 2024, conceding an average of just 62.6 points per game, all while being above average on the offensive side of the ball.

Yet this defensive prowess could be in strife come Saturday night, with superstar Steven May set to miss the clash with fractured ribs and his running mate Jake Lever also in question, having damaged his knee against Hawthorn.

Port has proven to be the inverse of Melbourne through the season’s early days, boasting the most potent attack in the competition but ranking 10th defensively, with their issues on that side of the ball from 2023 still lingering.

While the Power took down the Demons in a nail-biter as part of their landmark win streak in 2023, Melbourne has had their number in recent years, having won three of the last four meetings.

Yet with the Demons heading over to South Australia battling the injury bug, this is the would be the perfect time for the Power to establish themselves as serious contenders with a statement victory.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 9 points.

Jack Makeham


Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Sunday - 1:00pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium

A game which appears simple on paper, the Doggies should be able to easily handle the Eagles, right?

This was a similar rhetoric when the two sides met in Round 23 last year in a do-or-die game for Luke Beveridge’s men in their race for finals, going down in one of the upsets of the season as the Eagles came out victorious by seven points.

The likelihood of this repeating seems minimal, if not non-existent with the Bulldogs coming into this fixture having beaten one of the form teams of the competition in Gold Coast by 48 points last weekend.

This featured a dynamic forward line, led by the energetic Cody Weightman who snagged six goals against the Suns and will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a West Coast side which has conceded 114 points per game, the most in the league.

Irrespective of points conceded, veteran Jeremy McGovern has had his best individual start to a season, with the four-time All-Australian averaging 23 disposals and eight intercept possessions throughout the first two games.

This scenario unfolds courtesy of the Eagles' consistent concession of inside 50s, resulting in the ball frequently being trapped in their defensive half. The team's average of 42 inside 50s per game stands as the lowest in the league by a margin of four.

This game will be dominated by the Doggies’ midfield trio of Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English and Tom Liberatore, as their 42 clearances last week against a strong Suns midfield sets a scary fight for Adam Simpson and his men.

Ultimately, the quality of the Western Bulldogs around the ground will simply be too much for the Eagles and will struggle away from home. This match-up sets the stage for a demolition of the current spoon holders.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 42 points.

Harry Attiwill


Richmond v Sydney

Sunday - 4:00pm AEDT – MCG

The winless Richmond hosts the undefeated Sydney at the MCG on Sunday.

Adem Yze is still searching for his first win as Tigers coach, coming close against Carlton in Round 1 before pushing Port Adelaide almost all of the way last weekend.

The Tigers have already been hit with a number of injuries with the likes of Dion Prestia (hamstring), Jacob Hopper (knee), Josh Gibcus (ACL) and Jack Graham (quad) sidelined for at least multiple weeks, making things tougher for a rebuilding group.

Despite the likes of Callum Mills (shoulder), Luke Parker (broken arm), Taylor Adams (knee) and Harry Cunningham (concussion) being unavailable right now, things are much rosier in the Harbour City.

John Longmire’s Swans are one of two teams who boast a 3-0 record right now and look to be one of the most dangerous outfits in the AFL at this early stage of the season.

Isaac Heeney is in career-best form as a midfielder, forming a damaging group alongside Chad Warner and Errol Gulden, with specks of Tom Papley. If this formidable unit is up and running it is likely to provide a massive headache for the undermanned on-ball group of the Tigers.

They had six multiple goal kickers against Essendon last week and it is their amount of attacking assets, some of which run through the middle, that could be too much for the Tigers to handle.

In Richmond’s forward line, Tom Lynch was too bad to be true against the Power when second-up so expect a much more aggressive showing from him. Dustin Martin did not spend enough time at centre bounces last weekend which is a scenario that Yze might ponder against the Swans.

While the Tigers have huffed and puffed across the last two weekends and have been solid in patches, you just get the feeling the Swans are a seriously good side.

They Bloods are in very decent nick right now and should get the job done on the ‘G for the second time this season.

Tip: Sydney by 24 points.

Andrew Slevison


Hawthorn v Geelong

Monday - 3:20pm AEDT – MCG

The rivalry that presents itself in the Easter Monday clash promises an intense, hard-fought game regardless of the form of both teams.

Five out of the last ten matchups between the Hawks and Cats have been decided by less than two goals, with Hawthorn famously beating Geelong by two goals during Round 5 of their eventual 2022 premiership campaign.

This game presents an opportunity for Geelong to extend their season to a 3-0 record, a feat last achieved by Chris Scott’s men in 2019 where they went on to become minor premiers.

This record has been largely helped by the emergence of Gryan Miers, who has been pivotal in the absence of Cam Guthrie up the field, averaging 23 disposals and eight score involvements.

Geelong will enter this game nevertheless with a weakened midfield unit with Patrick Dangerfield out with a hamstring injury, presenting an opportunity for Hawthorn to dominate the middle of the park.

This will be largely driven through Jai Newcombe who has had a poor start to the season, averaging only 19 disposals to go with two clearances, but this fixture presents itself as a chance for the gun midfielder to kick-start his season.

The key position matchups favour Geelong, as Jeremy Cameron will be eager to emulate his seven-goal outing the last time they played Hawthorn, which will be made easier with injuries to Hawks key defenders including James Blanck, Changkuoth Jiath and Denver Granger-Barras.

Despite their midfield injuries, the Cats forward firepower of Tom Hawkins, Gryan Miers and Jeremy Cameron should prove too much for the Hawks to handle.

Don’t expect this game to be a roll-over however, as the historical importance of this matchup mandates energy and intensity from both teams.

Tip: Geelong by 19 points.

Harry Attiwill

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