Former AFL coach Brenton Sanderson is warning fans to temper expectations on Geelong and Carlton early in 2024, pointing to one major deficiency in both side’s games.
The Cats and Blues are two of only three clubs to be 4-0 through the first month of the 2024 season and are favoured to be 5-0 after this weekend.
But Sanderson believes those records may be deceiving given the way both midfields are performing.
Geelong ranks a clear last in clearance differential this year, with the Blues barely ahead.
“It’s a worrying sign… I’ve tried to unpack this every possible way,” Sanderson began on SEN’s Whateley.
“Carlton head-to-head with their opponents are -7 in clearances per game and the Cats are -9, ranked 17th and 18th in head-to-head differential.
“Let’s not get carried away with their records, 4-0. The Cats had that great win against St Kilda, that was a close one down at Kardinia Park, and that one last week could have gone either way against the Western Bulldogs. In between that were good wins against Adelaide and Hawthorn.
“The Blues beat Brisbane by a point… and the Freo game last week they won by 10 points, again that could have gone either way. In between that were wins against Richmond and North Melbourne, who we know are going to be in the bottom third.”
Sanderson added it was both sides’ prowess behind the ball that is saving them ahead of Round 5 this weekend.
The Cats and Blues are well set up behind the stoppage to counterpunch given the wealth of interceptors available to both Chris Scott and Michael Voss.
Therefore, even if the opposition can scrap the ball forward, the two teams are favoured to win it back and surge it forward on their terms.
As Sanderson noted, it’s a tactic that especially works for Geelong given the Cats are only losing 16 per cent of defensive one-on-one contests. Carlton’s record is among the worst in the competition, sitting just below 32 per cent.
“I don’t think they’d be overly concerned, but they would be concerned… both clubs need to get this right,” Sanderson concluded.
Carlton matches up against the winless Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium this weekend, while the Cats play one of eight remaining games at Kardinia Park against North Melbourne.