Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the six remaining games in Round 5.
GWS versus St Kilda
Kelly to collect 25+ disposals and 5+ inside 50s
The Rolls Royce of GWS’ midfield, Josh Kelly boasts a superb record against the Saints.
The 29-year-old Giant has had at least 24 possessions in each of his last three games against St Kilda and in last year’s Elimination Final proved the game-breaker with 27 disposals and eight inside 50s.
He matches up well against Ross Lyon’s midfield and has still found plenty of the footy with decreased midfield time in the last two games, gathering 25+ possessions on each occasion.
Kelly is the best pick of the GWS midfielders to have a big game.
Battle to have 8+ marks
Josh Battle has turned himself into one of the premier defenders of the competition.
His ability to beat his opponent in the air is what makes him such a valuable player for Ross Lyon and the Saints and you can expect him to do so again on Saturday against GWS.
In terms of marks, his first four games hasseen him clunk the ball 33 times with a season-high 13 against Richmond last week.
Pencil in over eight marks this Saturday.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Carlton versus Adelaide
Curnow to kick 3+ goals
The reigning Coleman Medalist has lost nothing in 2024 and looms as the most likely Blues forward to dine out against the Crows.
Charlie Curnow is in a different class to the likes of Jordon Butts and Mark Keane, and has kicked 10 goals in his last three against the Crows.
In his fixtures at Marvel in the last 14 months, Curnow averages four goals a game and would be eying a lead in the Coleman Medal after Saturday.
Dawson to record 25+ possessions
The Adelaide captain hasn’t been in top form disposal-wise to start 2024, but he’s still finding enough of the footy.
Dawson has recorded 25+ touches in three out of four games this season, despite looking out of sorts.
But don’t forget, it was this fixture last year when Dawson sprung to life in Round 5 and upset Carlton to kickstart the Crows’ season.
With Adelaide’s season heading down the gurgler, Dawson has the added motivation to go big at Marvel Stadium.
Seb Mottram
Gold Coast versus Hawthorn
Noah Anderson to have 30+ touches
Strong off the back of a 33-disposal game last week against a formidable GWS midfield outfit, a match-up against the winless Hawks will see the Suns midfield gather a ton of the pill.
He averages 29 disposals across the season and has the tendency to garner big totals, accumulating 30+ in two respective games this year.
This will be a game benefitting the outside midfielders, with Rowell poised to match-up with star Jai Newcombe we can expect Anderson to run around largely unscathed.
James Sicily to have 10+ intercept possessions
Hawthorn’s forward line is decimated, with Luke Bruest to join Mitch Lewis on the sidelines as they head to the sunshine state and thus, expected a lot of the ball in the Hawthorn defence.
Sicily has had a quiet start to the season, but the Suns are averaging the fifth highest clearances count in the AFL, giving Sicily the opportunity to exceed his season average of 8 intercepts.
As Harry Himmelberg and Jack Buckley both had 10+ intercept possessions against the Suns last week, we can expect last year’s All-Australian defender to do the same.
Harry Attiwill
Port Adelaide versus Fremantle
Drew to pick up 20+ disposals, 4+ clearances
Regarded by many as the fourth string in a dynamic Port Adelaide midfield, Champion Data put Drew’s name on the map with their player rankings through the first month of the season.
Drew came in at number seven on Champion Data’s list after averaging 21.5 disposals, 6.0 inside 50s and 4.8 clearances.
In one of the biggest games of the round, expect Drew’s profile to continue to rise with a strong showing against Fremantle.
His midfield time wasn’t impacted by Jason Horne-Francis’ return last week and we don’t expect that to be the case in Round 5.
Jackson to collect 20+ disposals, 25+ hitouts
The Freo ruckman has got one more game to influence the thinking of Justin Longmuir before Sean Darcy’s likely return next week.
Jackson would be right in contention for the All-Australian ruck position if the blazer was handed out this week, such has been his start to the year.
Only once has he not picked up 20 touches or 25 hitouts so far in 2024. Max Gawn smashed Ivan Soldo a fortnight ago and Jackson is in a similar ilk on current form.
Seb Mottram
Geelong versus North Melbourne
Holmes 20+ disposals
The most reliable prediction to place every week, Holmes is an absolute magnet off half-back and has hit the 20-disposal mark in every game this year.
Up against a lacklustre Kangaroos outfit, expect Geelong to look to exploit his outside run against either Dylan Stephens or Darcy Tucker, who have both struggled to start 2024.
McCluggage had 21 disposals in the second half last week against North playing on the wing, so we can expect Holmes to similarly dominate.
Xerri 35+ hit-outs
Xerri is enjoying a breakout season and has dominated in recently weeks, garnering 41 hit-outs last week in his match-up with Oscar McInerney.
He’s averaging 30 hit-outs across the season and with his direct opponent on the weekend being Rhys Stanley or Toby Conway, he’s sure to beat them in the contest around the ground.
Geelong average 104 ruck contests per game, the most in the league so we can expect Xerri playing as the sole ruck to win at an absolute minimum of 30 hit-outs.
Harry Attiwill
West Coast versus Richmond
Brown collects 15+ disposals and 2+ rebound 50s
He mightn’t be particularly well-known around the league just yet, but young Tom Brown has been making waves at Tigerland this season.
The 20-year-old has drawn tremendous praise for his piercing boot, routinely nailing outrageous kicks with deadly accuracy coming out of the backline.
The clash against West Coast will mark just his fifth senior appearance, yet every time he steps on the park Adem Yze gives him more licence to take the game on.
Expect the bright prospect to have a career game against a West Coast side that can’t keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands.
McGovern for 25+ disposals, 4+ intercept possessions
We’ve backed Jeremy McGovern for a certainty in all bar one of West Coast’s games this season, reflecting the fact that he has essentially been the only reliable Eagle in 2024.
The star defender stands out amidst another season in the doldrums for West Coast, averaging 23.8 disposals per game and ranking 16th in the competition for intercepts.
Richmond have been far from efficient going inside 50 this season, sitting 15th in the comp, so there will undoubtedly be plenty of easy footy for McGovern to pick off.
Jack Makeham
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