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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 7

2024-04-24T12:30+10:00

Round 7 is just around the corner with Anzac Eve and Day bringing forward the round to a midweek start.

Things kick off with Richmond and Melbourne on Wednesday night before Collingwood and Essendon clash on Thursday.

GWS hosts Brisbane in Canberra on ANZAC Day night before six games take place from Friday to Sunday.

All 18 teams appear for just the third time this year as well.

With that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 7 below.

Richmond v Melbourne

Wednesday - 7:25pm AEST – MCG

The latest growing blockbuster on the AFL schedule is ANZAC Day eve, with Melbourne and Richmond doing an excellent job of building up the fixture.

The match looms as a must-win for the Demons. Sitting at 4-2, their top four hopes ride on winning when heavy favourites and this is just that scenario.

Richmond are currently 1-5, dealing with the worst injury list in the competition and coming off a loss to West Coast. They are ripe for the picking and the Dees should be far too strong.

However, Melbourne’s forward line comes in horribly out of form after Harrison Petty and Jacob Van Rooyen had zero impact against Brisbane, while Bayley Fritsch is hitting the scoreboard but only playing well in small bursts.

With Dylan Grimes set to return, the Tigers will be hoping to turn this into a low scoring scrap. What tricks will Adem Yze have up his sleeve against his former club?

Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca were also incredibly poor against the Lions and should be expected to bounce back against an understrength Richmond midfield. They both have a strong recent history against the Tigers.

Could this be the tune-up that Melbourne needed to find some rhythm? That’s what we’re predicting at least, but it likely won’t as easy as most think.

Tip: Melbourne by 17 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Essendon v Collingwood

Thursday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG

This is as good as footy will get for the next four months.

The MCC is expecting upwards of 90,000 fans to pile into the ‘G for the annual ANZAC Day clash featuring powerhouses Essendon and Collingwood and rarely are we treated to such a high level of intrigue early in the season.

Combined, the Bombers and Magpies have won five of their last six games and will meet on Thursday afternoon as two of the competition’s in-form teams.

Recent history has these two sides as 2-2 in the last four ANZAC Day games and Craig McRae has never lost to Essendon in four games. That would suggest Collingwood has the wood over the Bombers in this clash, as would the way the last two ANZAC Day matches have finished.

Jamie Elliott’s goal is one that won’t be forgotten, nor will Collingwood’s seven-goal blitz in last year’s final term. Both occurred through defensive lapses the Bombers have become renowned for.

But Brad Scott is beginning to turn the wheel on recent evidence. The Bombers recorded 50 intercepts between the arc in a gritty win last week against Adelaide, a figure well above AFL average and have conceded just 20 goals across the last two weeks.

Whether it holds up against a Collingwood outfit that looks back to its best and coming off 33 scoring shots against a stingy Port Adelaide team remains to be seen.

All that is certain is that this game can’t come fast enough. But if the Bombers have fixed their Achilles heel, Scott might be set for his biggest win as Essendon coach.

Tip: Essendon by 8 points.

Seb Mottram


GWS v Brisbane

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – Manuka Oval

A huge clash awaits fans on ANZAC Day night with GWS hosting Brisbane at the Gabba.

The Lions could genuinely have their top four hopes dashed in this game, with a loss sending them to 2-5 though seven games.

With that in mind, there’s no doubt that this time they will come out breathing fire. But you could have said that on a handful of times this season after a bad loss the week prior.

As for GWS, they’re also coming off a loss but will feel a lot better about themselves despite losing captain Toby Greene to suspension. Thankfully for Adam Kingsley, Coleman Medal leader Jesse Hogan has been cleared.

While GWS are 2-0 at Manuka in their last two games, the ground won’t hold any fears for Brisbane who won there in both 2022 and 2023.

You have to pick GWS given their form line this season, but Brisbane are a massive chance … as long as it’s the Lions that we saw play Melbourne at the MCG in Round 5.

If it’s the Brisbane that we have instead seen in losses to Carlton, Fremantle Collingwood and Geelong, then they are absolutely no hope of getting close to the current premiership favourites.

The tip is GWS … but a Brisbane resurgence wouldn’t shock given the obvious talent still at their disposal.

Tip: GWS by 21 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Port Adelaide v St Kilda

Friday - 7:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide return home with their tail between their legs after last weekend’s 42-point loss to Collingwood.

St Kilda suffered a similar demise in that they were smacked by 60 points by the Western Bulldogs.

That scenario makes this a true bounce-back game for one of these two teams.
The Power have owned the Saints over the last decade or so, winning 12 of the last 13. It’s a period of dominance, apart from one blip in 2020, that started back in Round 1, 2012.

Six of those victories have come in seven meetings at the Adelaide Oval.

Ken Hinkley’s Port started swiftly against the Magpies last week, kicking six first-quarter goals. They’ve been decent at getting going early in 2024, averaging a tick under four goals in opening terms.

On the flip side, the Saints have returned just two goals total in their last three opening quarters, so you can imagine that will be a focus for Ross Lyon.

After a rare dismantling under Lyon last week, which was their second loss on the trot, the Saints will be intent on recoiling in Round 7.

However, the Power might just have too much class and should be good enough to get themselves back on track after a slight mishap.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.

Andrew Slevison


North Melbourne v Adelaide

Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Blundstone Arena

The first fixture at Hobart’s Blundstone Arena for 2024 sees the winless Kangaroos take on a luckless Adelaide in a must-win clash for both sides.

The Crows fell agonisingly short against the Bombers last weekend, in a heartbreaker that saw a last-minute non-call from the umpire potentially rob Adelaide of their second win. However, a multitude of opportunities prior to win the game went begging.

While the result was not what Matthew Nicks would have hoped for, it might be safe to say the Crows have displayed a much stronger level of football over the last two weeks.

Their win against Carlton in Round 5 was an indication of the level the Crows are capable of, with the likes of Izak Rankine and Jake Soligo spawning a new-found excitement at the centre of the park.

If this level can be maintained, and the likes of skipper Jordan Dawson and veteran Taylor Walker can return to their best, it may be difficult to rule Adelaide out of any conversations in 2024.

As for North Melbourne, there isn’t a lot to shout about.

In what was a massive game against Hawthorn for the ‘Roos last weekend, the game didn’t just go begging. It was a demolition by the Hawks. North Melbourne lost out on almost every major stat, failing to put up a fight against a fellow bottom four opposition in their 45-point loss.

With that, it’s difficult to see North Melbourne beating anybody. If Alastair Clarkson cannot get the most out of his group, the rebuild may carry on for a number of years to come.

Funnily enough, North Melbourne’s last victory came at Blundstone Arena against Gold Coast in Round 24. A needless win that saw the Kangaroos jump off the bottom of the table, ultimately costing the club a generational talent in Harley Reid.

0-7 would be a disaster, but it’s looking like a reality for the Kangaroos.

Tip: Adelaide by 32 points.

Jaiden Sciberras


Geelong v Carlton

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – MCG

In a week packed with blockbusters, Saturday’s clash looks to be the most mouth-watering of the bunch.

The Cats managed to stay undefeated in their most challenging match of the season last week, taking advantage of the damp conditions to become the latest team to breach the Lions’ home fortress.

Meanwhile, the Blues have been arguably just as impressive, affirming their premiership credentials with a statement win over GWS while shorthanded.

Both clubs will step onto the MCG missing pivotal players, with Geelong left without superstar defender Tom Stewart, while Carlton are limping along with nearly half of their best 22 on the sidelines.

These injuries haven’t slowed down either club in the slightest, with Zach Guthrie (with help form Jack Bowes) filling in Stewart’s role admirably against Brisbane, while Michael Voss has found contributions from every available Blues body at his disposal.

However there must be a tipping point where these injuries catch up to the Blues, and the ever-consistent Cats are exactly the side to take advantage.

Geelong is one of the strongest teams in the competition on the defensive side of the ball, using supreme organisation and stellar pressure to completely restrict their opponents, something which the battered and bruised Blues could struggle with.

Yet without Tom Stewart to worry about, there is every chance the duo of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay runs amok on the MCG.

It’s shaping up to be the most even contest of the round, but with Geelong yet to put a foot wrong in 2024, it’s hard to go against them.

Tip: Geelong by 11 points.

Jack Makeham


Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7:30pm AEST – Optus Stadium

Fremantle disappointed in the Derby last weekend while the Western Bulldogs dominated St Kilda.

Aaron Naughton (6 goals) and Cody Weightman (3) fired and they could yet welcome back Jamarra Ugle-Hagan after a week off, but that is unconfirmed as yet.

If the Dogs are to pull off somewhat of an upset, that trio will need to fire and kick 10 or more between them.

However, can you trust that they'll back it up against the Dockers at Optus Stadium?

The Dogs are 0-5 after wins of 50 or more points, dating back to the 2021 Grand Final.

As for the Dockers, they were utterly dismantled by West Coast in their third game in 14 days as the AFL fixture continues to show its flaws.

The Dockers have had a week back home and will need to end this three-game losing streak after starting the year 3-0.

They haven't kicked over 60 points in the last four games with their inability to score a massive concern for Justin Longmuir.

Literally impossible to tip but here we are. Home ground advantage enough for Freo.

Tip: Fremantle by 14 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick


Gold Coast v West Coast

Sunday - 1:00pm AEST – People First Stadium

A few weeks ago, who would’ve thought this game would be a must-watch?

After managing only 221 points across the first four games of the season, West Coast have scored 214 points in the last two weeks alone and seem to be able to compete against any team they come across.

Their opposition in Gold Coast sets a whole new challenge for the Eagles, as their deadly midfield trio of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller plus Sam Flanders presents itself as a tough group to quell.

The Eagles have struggled against the Suns in previous history, possessing only one victory in their last five matchups. They haven't beaten the Suns away from home since Round 23, 2014.

Adam Simpson's team aims to end the streak but faces uncertainty with rising star Harley Reid possibly sidelined due to management, following his standout performance with three goals against Fremantle.

However, several Eagles have stepped up recently, particularly Jake Waterman, whose meteoric rise has seen him kick 11 goals in the last two games, which will demand close attention from the Suns’ defenders.

Gold Coast’s forward line also possesses a weapon in Ben King, who dominated the Suns in 2023 kicking 4.3 in Round 9. He continued this form with 16 goals across the opening six games this year.

West Coast’s midfield will have to contest with the Suns dynamic run through the middle, who currently sit sixth for inside 50s at 55.5 per game. However, Elliot Yeo, Liam Duggan and Tim Kelly have found form recently and seem set for the challenge.

With the potential absence of Reid, we can see the Suns breaking the Eagles and continuing their unbeaten record at home with a comfortable win.

Tip: Gold Coast by 35 points.

Harry Attiwill


Hawthorn v Sydney

Sunday - 4:00pm AEST – MCG

For the first time in six years, these two sides will meet at the MCG in what looks like a one-sided affair.

With both sides on the opposite ends of the ladder to begin the 2024 season, Sydney will be undoubtedly entering this Round 7 clash as the overwhelming favourites.

But as we saw the last time the Swans came to the MCG when losing to Richmond - this doesn’t always guarantee the expected result to come to fruition.

Hawthorn defeated North Melbourne in convincing fashion last week to gain their first victory of the season. A result that Sam Mitchell will be pushing his young side to use as a platform for more consistent results as we edge close to the halfway mark of the year.

Whereas for Sydney, their 53-point victory over Gold Coast last week at home will instill further confidence in themselves to continue their winning ways this weekend.

Hawthorn will have to keep this game as contested as possible for there to be a chance of an upset. Sydney are ranked 14th for average contested possessions this season – which has been identified in the past as a clear weakness for this otherwise powerful side.

As for the Swans, ensuring that they give themselves an ample amount of opportunities in front of goal against an underman Hawks defence, will most likely hold them in good stead to safeguard a victory on Sunday afternoon.

Sydney are ranked inside the top four for scoring efficiency this season, whilst the Hawks are ranked in the bottom four.

Let’s hope we are given another classic between these two rivals with Lance Franklin in attendance.

Tip: Sydney by 28 points.

Zac Sharpe

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