Round 11 of the 2024 AFL season is upon us with some intriguing games ahead over the weekend.
Finals contenders are facing off on each day, with the Dogs facing the Swans, Dockers playing the Pies, Blues meeting the Suns, Cats welcoming the Giants and Dees hoping to end the Saints' season.
On top of that, we'll get all of the excitement of Sir Doug Nicholls Indigenous Round, with Dreamtime at the 'G the showpiece between the Dons and Tigers on Saturday night.
With all of that in mind, see our tips and predictions for Round 11 below.
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – Marvel Stadium
Thursday night footy is set to return to its brilliant best in Round 11, with both the Western Bulldogs and Sydney Swans in strong form.
John Longmire’s Swans are shooting for a 10-1 record, a start to the season not seen for the club since 1936. They’ve been clinical throughout the 2024 season, with all of their wins coming by 22 points or more in proving potent ahead of the footy.
Ironically, their only loss came to now-17th Richmond. Make sense of that as you will, but Sydney holds no fears having since claimed the scalps of Gold Coast, GWS, Fremantle in Perth and most recently Carlton.
In defeating the Blues, Swan Chad Warner played the second best game seen this year on AFL rating points and proved that if you want to go after one star, another one is going to stand up in spades.
Combatting all of Sydney’s weapons is Luke Beveridge’s biggest headache on paper, with game-breakers on every line for the Swans.
But in what is a mild free hit for the Dogs after their last two wins, including most recently over the Giants at Engie Stadium, expect Beveridge’s men to come out firing on all cylinders.
They’ve averaged just shy over 100 points over the last three weeks, with key forward Aaron Naughton looking to be in career best form.
Ed Richards has also proven to be dynamite in the midfield, while a Liam Jones-led defence has conceded just 12 total goals in the last fortnight.
Their game is in good order, a leap back into the top eight beckons with a win and the Swans may be sleepy in the week before their bye.
But Sydney’s proven to be the most trustworthy team in the competition so far and have no chinks in their armour.
Tip: Sydney by 24 points.
Seb Mottram
Fremantle v Collingwood
Friday - 8:10pm AEST – Optus Stadium
Will injuries finally catch up to Collingwood?
That’s the big question ahead of this Friday night clash as the Pies are even more depleted than they have been in recent weeks.
While this side hasn’t lost since Round 2, this might just be the breaking point with the likes of Ed Allan and Wil Parker joining similarly inexperienced types Harvey Harrison, Lachie Sullivan and Joe Richards in the side - all players who didn’t look close to getting into the team just a month ago.
Luckily for Collingwood, most of these names have performed brilliantly, but it’s going to be a tough task against a very fit Fremantle side at home with a star-studded midfield that’s been going to work in 2024.
With Collingwood lacking forwards and Fremantle not exactly a high-scoring team, you can expect this one to be somewhat of a slugfest as the Dockers will hope to keep the Pies to under 65 if they’re to win.
There’s no doubt that they can do that … unless Nick Daicos gets off the chain as he has done across his last month of absolutely ridiculous football.
If he, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp continue their form on-ball, the Magpies probably extend their undefeated streak to eight games.
If the Dockers get on top on-ball, Collingwood’s already depleted forward line might not get the big amount of opportunities that they will need to kick a winning score against this strong defensive outfit.
The tip is with Fremantle, only because of Collingwood’s injury crisis … without that, they look like the best side in the competition currently behind Sydney on form.
Tip: Fremantle by 15 points.
Lachlan Geleit
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne were much more competitive in last weekend’s loss to Essendon, running them to seven points at the main break.
But they were unable to maintain the rage and were eventually overrun by 40 points - their seventh 40-plus margin of the season.
Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos have now lost 10 on the trot in 2024 with an average losing margin of 51.4 points.
Port Adelaide came from the clouds to edge Hawthorn in Round 10. The Power came from 41 points down to get up by a point – their equal largest comeback in history.
It was a bittersweet result given they were so poor for three quarters yet managed to snaffle the four points.
Will they have an emphasis on a faster start at Blundstone Arena this Saturday afternoon? You’d imagine Ken Hinkley has been drilling that sort of message home all week.
The Power have won their last four over the Roos by an average margin of 56.7 points, including the last two in Hobart by 70 and 69 points. They’ve won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two clubs.
There is a little bit of spice in this with No.1 draft pick Jason Horne-Francis playing his 50th AFL game (and 33rd for Port) against his former club the Roos.
On paper, it looks a fairly straightforward match to assess. The Power currently hold fourth spot (pre-round) and should comfortably be accounting for a winless team team on the bottom of the ladder.
The Roos could make life difficult for Port but it should not stop Hinkley’s men from picking up their eighth win of 2024.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 38 points.
Andrew Slevison
Carlton v Gold Coast
Saturday - 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium
A lot is quietly riding on this game. Carlton and Gold Coast feel like two teams fighting for the 5-8 range of the ladder come the end of the season and these four points could swing it.
The Suns have been a flaky team so far this season, yet to win an away game. Damien Hardwick has turned them into a serious side on the Gold Coast and they have continued their domination of Darwin, but can they fly to Victoria and beat a wobbly Carlton in front of 45,000 fans?
The Blues will be praying that Jacob Weitering gets through training and plays, while Adam Saad, Jesse Motlop and Lachie Fogarty could also return.
Carlton has struggled to apply forward pressure and move the ball from half back – those three ins address just that.
Under the roof at Marvel, Carlton should have the advantage. Particularly with the Suns coming off successive games in the Darwin heat.
But Damien Hardwick has only lost once to the Blues since 2014, and playing in Victoria will hold no fears for him – even if he’s not overly fond of the Docklands.
Tip: Carlton by 15 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Geelong v GWS Giants
Saturday - 4:35pm AEST – GMHBA Stadium
Of the teams currently sitting comfortably in the top eight, there are no two more desperate for a win than the Cats and Giants.
Both sides enter Round 11 having dropped their last three games, something that seemed unfathomable just a month ago when GWS and Geelong sat undefeated at the top of the table.
The Cats have felt the sting of the league-wide injury plague in recent weeks, with stars like Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield and Sam De Koning spending time on the sidelines during their slide.
Yet things have been even worse for the Giants, with their injury list one of the largest in the competition, highlighted by the devastating loss of Josh Kelly for at least another month.
This has GWS’ trademark surge game style completely disappear over the last few rounds, averaging a paltry 58 points across their last three games, a far cry from the 90.5 points per game they averaged up until Round 7.
If the Giants arrive at GMHBA Stadium wielding the conservative, possession-based approach they have displayed in their last three losses, they will struggle to break through Geelong’s stellar defensive structure.
Apart from the aberration that was last week’s display against Gold Coast in Darwin, the Cats have essentially remained the side that started out the season on fire, losing to the Demons and Power in back-to-back weeks by a combined margin of 14 points.
If the Giants can get back to the style that made them one of the most dangerous teams in the competition to start 2024, they can give the Cats a run for their money.
However, if they show up as the team we have seen throughout May, Geelong should be more than capable of getting the job done at the Cattery.
Tip: Geelong by 13 points.
Jack Makeham
Richmond v Essendon
Saturday - 7:40pm AEST – MCG
Dreamtime at the ‘G feels a little different in 2024, a year on from Damien Hardwick’s final game in charge of Richmond.
The Tigers are hurting with a crippling injury list and on the back of a massive 119-point defeat at the hands of Brisbane.
Adem Yze has to deal with 18 unavailable players (as of Wednesday afternoon), but could get a few players back this week, including Liam Baker.
Essendon enters this as unbackable favourites, for the first time we can remember in a Dreamtime game, and rightly so.
They’re playing a game of substance under Brad Scott which has them sitting second on the ladder (pre-round) with a 7-1-2 record.
The Bombers are on a three-game winning streak and six game unbeaten run which should at least extend into next week.
Form and personnel-wise, it’s impossible to tip against the Dons who have a stranglehold on this game.
Richmond will want to provide a bit more effort and intent than has been shown over the past fortnight, and although the Tigers might be more competitive, it’s hard to see them getting too close.
While the Dons haven’t really blown teams away this year, they might get that opportunity at the MCG on Saturday night.
Tip: Essendon by 52 points.
Andrew Slevison
Hawthorn v Brisbane
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST – Marvel Stadium
On paper, Brisbane should be winning this by a lot.
But that’s not what we’ve seen from the Lions in 2024, with their form as unpredictable as any.
In saying that, they’ve begun to build somewhat over the last three weeks, beating Gold Coast and Richmond at home while drawing against Adelaide away.
That kind of form should see them be too strong for the Hawks, but Sam Mitchell’s side has also improved over that period, beating the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda before pushing Port Adelaide all the way at the Adelaide Oval.
If they bring that kind of footy to Marvel Stadium on Sunday, they’re right in this.
They also beat Brisbane the last two times they’ve played them in Melbourne, although those games were at the MCG.
Under the roof, Brisbane’s record is far better, having won eight of their last nine in Docklands.
They should make it nine out of 10 here if their ball movement gets going given their forward line far outmatches Hawthorn’s defence one-on-one.
That’s where the game will and should be won.
But… crazier things have happened in games between these sides recently, and it’s hard to trust either mob in 2024…
Tip: Brisbane by 33 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST – MCG
The underfire Saints head to the MCG to face the Dees who have uncharacteristically lost two in a row.
Aside from North Melbourne and West Coast, the Saints head into Round 11 as one of the most out-of-form teams in the competition and that doesn't bode well for them against a Melbourne side that heads to the MCG equal 10th on the ladder.
Melbourne's stranglehold over the Saints in recent times isn't pleasant reading for St Kilda fans with the Demons winning the last four games quite comfortably.
If the Saints are in chance of winning, they must be given the license to take the game on and be willing to kick a score.
The last two games for Ross Lyon's side have seen them kick 55 and 53 points and against a Melbourne defence that is historically stingy, this could be a dark day for Max King and his fellow forwards.
Jake Lever missing does make the task a little bit easier for the Saints but their key forward stocks won't be causing Simon Goodwin and his coaching group much grief ahead of Sunday.
Melbourne's midfield had their colours lowered against West Coast and that is something that isn't said often when you speak about Christian Petracca, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney.
Tipping that quartet to dominate on Sunday and make a mess of one of the worst midfield groups in the competition.
Tip: Melbourne by 14 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Adelaide v West Coast
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
A bottom end clash between two teams whose ladder position fails to reflect their ability.
The Crows enter this one in 13th place with just three wins from their 10 games, however, are certainly one of the in-form teams in the competition.
In the last six weeks, Adelaide have won three, drawn one and lost two games by a combined seven points (three points versus Essendon, four points versus Collingwood).
They have shown plenty of fight following their poor start to the season, and if they want any chance at a late September push, home fixtures against bottom four sides are the games that they cannot let slip.
As for the Eagles, this will be a massive test as to where they stand in the competition.
West Coast have successfully turned Optus Stadium into a fortress, winning three of their last four home games including a huge scalping over Melbourne in Round 10.
The issue for Adam Simpson’s men lies interstate, losing every away fixture in 2024 by an average of just over 57 points.
The Crows enter this battle without star Izak Rankine (hamstring), who has quickly proven himself as one of the competition’s best, while the clash between Jake Soligo and Harley Reid should not be overlooked.
The last of a dying breed of vintage full forwards in Taylor Walker and Jake Waterman will be a fight to watch, both entering the game in good nick, while Waterman may face the highly-touted Irishman Mark Keane in a heavyweight contest.
Both sides are in hot form, but away from home it’s hard to side with the Eagles.
Tip: Adelaide by 21 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
