The 10 certainties for the rest of Round 14

Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the five remaining games in Round 14 across Saturday and Sunday.

Western Bulldogs versus Fremantle

Serong to amass 30+ disposals

There’s plenty of precedent for Caleb Serong to fill his boots against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday.

Serong had 37 touches against the Dogs less than two months ago and plays in a similar in-and-under way to Lachie Neale, who torched Luke Beveridge’s men just last week.

Serong, still only 23, has hit the 30-disposal mark six times in 2024, including both times at Marvel Stadium.

He’ll have a big say on the contest.

Jones to have at least eight intercept possessions

Alex Keath is the Dogs’ latest injury casualty, leaving Liam Jones to be the man by himself in Round 14.

Jones has been at his intercepting best in recent weeks, averaging 11 intercepts a game since Round 9 despite often taking the opposition’s best forward.

The star Bulldog will back himself against the likes of Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy and he’ll have to be at his best if the Dogs are a chance.

Seb Mottram

Richmond versus Hawthorn

Martin to have 20+ disposals and kick at least 1 goal

Milestone man Dustin Martin loves getting up for the occasion when he’s on the big stage.

In his 300th AFL game, we’re expecting the Richmond great to have an impact win, lose or draw.

Across 15 career games against Hawthorn, Martin has averaged 27 disposals - the best return against any of the 17 clubs he has played against. He’s also kicked 15 goals against the Hawks at one per game.

In 2024, ‘Dusty’ is averaging 19 disposals and 0.9 goals but we reckon he’ll sense the moment and go above those two thresholds.

Martin should pick up at least 20 touches while booting at least a goal at the MCG on his big day.

Gunston to kick 2+ goals

Jack Gunston has rediscovered some strong goal kicking form in recent weeks.

The 32-year-old has booted 10 goals from his last three games, including a haul of four and two of three majors.

Gunston has not played against Richmond since 2022 but on that occasion in Round 22 he kicked 2.3. Over 14 games across his career he has kicked 23/19, averaging three shots on goal.

So we believe the triple premiership Hawk will again be a key avenue to goal for Sam Mitchell’s side on Saturday and should kick at least two goals.

Andrew Slevison

Adelaide versus Sydney

Dawson 20+ disposals

Jordan Dawson loves playing at the Adelaide Oval.

The Crows skipper has picked up 32, 32, 27, 24, 31, 23 and 26 disposals in each of his games at the venue so far this season.

20+ is a certainty, if he’s allowed any kind of relative freedom and he’ll be doing his best to drag his side over the line against the competition’s best team.

Gulden 25+ disposals

Errol Gulden has been prolific for the Swans this year.

The All-Australian wing has picked up at least 25 disposals in each of his last nine games, he’s also coming off a whopping 37 against Geelong.

Given the Crows are likely to put some attention into Isaac Heeney or Chad Warner if they send a tagger someone’s way, Gulden should have relative freedom to operate.

He had 30 the last time the two times played, which was also at the Adelaide Oval.

He should get near that figure again.

Lachlan Geleit

North Melbourne versus Collingwood

Larkey to kick 3+ goals

Off the back of a five-goal haul against the Eagles, Nick Larkey has found his kicking boots once again in 2024.

Against one of the competition’s best key defenders in Tom Barrass, Larkey dominated with seven score involvements from his 15 disposals despite taking just two marks inside 50’s.

Expect the Souv to carry his form through to the Pies.

Kreuger to kick at least one goal

The 'Kreug' played a ripper in the Pies’ King’s Birthday demolition of Melbourne.

11 touches, seven marks and three goals in his return to the level, against a Melbourne defence featuring Steven May and Tom McDonald.

Coming up against a North Melbourne side who struggle to lock down key forwards, the athletic monster could be up for a big Sunday afternoon.

Jaiden Sciberras

GWS versus Port Adelaide

Whitfield for 25+ disposals

Lachie Whitfield has been racking up the footy off the half back flank this season.

Off the back of 30 disposals against the Hawks, Whitfield has now managed 25+ in all of his last three features, falling below the mark in just two games this season.

Expect a plethora of uncontested touches for the Giant.

Georgiades for 2+ goals

Since his return from injury, Georgiades has been dynamic in Port Adelaide’s forward line.

Kicking two or more in six of his nine features in 2024, his athleticism and marking ability has proven a nightmare matchup for opposition defenders.

The Giants do have a tall backline; however, we back Mitch to secure another double.

Jaiden Sciberras

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