By Lachlan Geleit
Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne has revealed the one key area of concern for Carlton.
While the Blues sit second on the ladder with a 9-4 win-loss record and have picked up three consecutive victories, they’re struggling terribly in terms of ball movement.
Hoyne labelled that aspect of their game as having plenty of room for improvement as they sit seventh-worst in the competition across the last six weeks in ball movement from defence to offence.
They are also the third-worst side in the competition over that period in attacking from half-back.
“Carlton is doing a lot right at the moment, but like the rest of the competition, probably outside of Sydney, there’s room for improvement,” Hoyne said on SEN Sportsday.
“Their number one room for improvement is what they're doing from a ball movement perspective, and can they actually start to generate a little bit more (movement)?
“They were pretty good against Essendon in that aspect, but in terms of what they've done over the last six weeks, in terms of ball movement from defensive 50 to forward 50 - it's the seventh worst in the competition.
“In that sort of half back, counter punch area, they’re the third-worst in the competition (over that period).”
Hoyne believes that Carlton is struggling in that area primarily because of the way that they want to kick long to a contest down the line to gain territory and clear defensive 50.
Unfortunately, they’re just not winning enough of those contests in the middle and on the wing after the clearing kick, which is seriously hurting their numbers in that area.
“I just want to explain why that's the case,” Hoyne said.
“Quite often teams win the ball behind centre and are happy to kick long to a contest, get it out of defence and actually gain some territory.
“When you actually are implementing that long down-the-line play, AFL teams win that possession 50 per cent of the time.
“Over Carlton's last four games when they've gone long down the line and happy to kick to a contest, they’re winning the ball just 20 per cent of the time.
“To put that into context, that is the worst return we have seen by any team over a four-game period in nine years.”
Hoyne was surprised that Carlton has been so poor in that area given their strong aerial targets and ground-ball contested players.
“It's amazing,” Hoyne said.
“I keep thinking about it going, ‘They’re a contest team, you kick long and you’re going to get Cripps and Walsh there’.
“But their inability to be able to win that contest is at levels, as I said, that we haven't seen in nine years.”
Carlton will hope to improve on that aspect of their game when they face sixth-placed Geelong at the MCG on Friday night.
Crafted by Project Diamond