SENTrack: Andrew O’Toole’s best bets for Darwin Cup Day (05/08)

Well the big day is finally here – and what a day it promises to be, with record fields and a short-priced favourite, Bear Story, for the biggest race in the Territory, the $200,000 Great Northern Darwin Cup, which will be the culmination of ten tremendous races on the traditional first Monday in August.

The lead-ups have been run and won for the 2050m feature, and none was better in his Darwin Cup trial than Neil Dyer’s Irish import Bear Story, who broke the track record and gave his rivals a galloping lesson in the Chief Minister’s Cup over 1600m on Day 2 of the Carnival. Dyer knows what it takes to win the Chief Minister’s-Darwin Cup double – he has done it twice previously with the incomparable Hawks Bay (2012) and Royal Request (2017) – and in Bear Story, he has a deserving favourite to make it four Darwin Cups on the mantlepiece.

Noel Callow takes the mount on the son of Kodiac, and he was aboard when Bear Story ran away from Wolfburn and company in the Chief Minister’s, winning by over four lengths. The extra trip will be right up his alley and from an inside barrier of two (he may well jump from the inside gate if the emergencies don’t get a start), he will need to go forward to take up a position much like he did last start when he trailed the pacemakers in about fourth or fifth spot.

He showed in the Chief Minister’s that he has a turn of foot and more than a touch of class, and with even luck, the topweight will take all the beating as he looks to win his first race on Australian soil after numerous solid performances against good company in Melbourne over the last couple of years.

Hardest to beat promises to be Wolfburn, the third placegetter in the Cup 12 months ago and racing in career best form of late. After chasing Bear Story home in the Day 2 feature, Wolfburn’s trainer Gary Clarke elected to give his charge a further start, and after gaining a great trail behind He’s The Ultimate in the Metric Mile, he bounded clear over the concluding stages to win impressively. He has won numerous races from the front, but his latest effort showed he may be even better with a trail, so his barrier of 5 is a distinct advantage. Jarrod Todd, his regular rider, will again have the mount and he promises to give the favourite plenty of opposition again.

Hadouken, trained by Peter Robl on the Gold Coast, was very good when winning the Buntine Handicap over the Cup trip on Derby Day (20 July), which followed a first-up win in Darwin over 1600m on 6 July. He will have the services of top Sydney jockey Tyler Schiller, who will have to be at his best to overcome Hadouken’s outside barrier position. But the 6yo is racing extremely well, handles the surface with aplomb and has had an ideal preparation for the big one.

Clarke has another couple of runners engaged – 2022 winner Playoffs and Derby winner Masatora – and both will be ridden by visiting Victorian riders. Celine Gaudray, the leading apprentice in the state, takes the mount on Playoffs, who will be improved for his first-up seventh in the Chief Minister’s. His trainer has a happy knack of getting older horses winning in major races, and he should not be left out of calculations – on his best form he’s a leading contender.

Masatora will have the services of Carleen Hefel, who has been in red-hot form in Melbourne for some time now and rides a lot for the Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman stable. The 3yo will need all favours in the Cup and definitely pace on so he can show his staying prowess, but he shouldn’t be overlooked. That said, it is a big ask for the just turned 4yos to be competitive against the older horses in the Darwin Cup.

Noir De Rue, the favourite from 12 months ago, has been an eye-catcher in his last two starts and drops 2kg from his unplaced run in the Cup last year. He has a nice draw and if he turns up in his best form, the 10yo could spring a surprise for Jason Manning, who is chasing his first Darwin Cup victory.

Last year’s winner Write Your Name has had an interrupted preparation and is “behind the eight-ball”, but that said he is a class act and has the services of Kyra Yuill. Starspangled Baby, the visitor from Sale, has been pretty good in three Top End starts so far and was third to Hadouken in the Buntine, so the trip won’t worry Andrew Perdon’s mare. Hettinger, the second of Neil Dyer’s pair to be ridden by Craig Newitt, was very good winning the restricted Toyota Cup before a battling fourth in the Metric Mile. He seems certain to be ridden quietly this time from a widish gate and he could surprise.

He’s The Ultimate, who won the Metric Mile last year before finishing fifth in the Darwin Cup, ran second to Wolfburn in the ROANT Cup, was then down the track behind Bear Story in the Chief Minister’s before a far better run for third to Wolfburn in the Metric Mile. He will be ridden by leading NT apprentice Jade Hampson, who won the AS Cup last year on Write Your Name. He is the likely leader and could be prominent for a long way.

The weather in the Top End will be sensational today, and the official forecast reads: Mostly sunny. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening. The temperature is forecast to reach 31 degrees during the day, and 21 overnight.

The first on the mammoth 10-race card gets underway at 11.52am (NT time), which is 12.22pm on the eastern seaboard, while the last is timed to go at 5.30pm (NT time), or 6.00pm in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

BEST BETS

R2 # 1 EGYPTIAN TYCOON
Lightly-raced 6yo having just his 14th career start, and his second outing in the Top End. Was not far away when fourth behind Polarising over 1000m on 13 July, and steps up in trip to 1200m which should be within his scope. Drawn an ideal gate and the Nash-Pegus combination has been on fire during this Carnival. Should be a leading contender here.

R6 # 3 PINK PANTHER
Won his first two Darwin outings in good style and has been highly competitive in two starts since, finishing third in the Toyota Finance Cup over this trip before going one better when chasing home stablemate Wolfburn in the Metric Mile on 27 July. While this looks an even lot, he stands out as being the one to beat judged on his recent performances. Aaron Sweeney rides for leading trainer Gary Clarke.

R7 # 1 AMERICAN JAZZ
Has been a little below his best lately after a string of wins, but his last-start fourth to stablemate Change Is Coming over an unsuitable 1000m pointed to a bold showing over a more suitable 1300m. Has drawn awkwardly but will be sent forward by Adam Nicholls and should be among the first two or three at the midway stage. With any luck in running can bounce back to his best in this.

SELECTIONS

RACE 1 – 9, 3, 10, 5
RACE 2 – 1, 11, 7, 2
RACE 3 – 2, 5, 7, 9
RACE 4 – 3, 7, 8, 5
RACE 5 – 4, 7, 5, 11
RACE 6 – 3, 1, 6, 5
RACE 7 – 1, 4, 11, 2
RACE 8 – 1, 3, 5, 8
RACE 9 – 3, 1, 4, 2
RACE 10 – 1, 3, 11, 4

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