Why Brad Johnson isn’t giving up on Carlton’s 2024 premiership hopes just yet

Western Bulldogs great Brad Johnson isn’t giving up on Carlton in 2024 despite their recent run of torrid form.

The Blues have lost five of their last six games and have fallen from being a game and a half clear in second at the end of Round 16, to out of the eight entirely at the end of Round 22.

Carlton’s most recent result was a 38-112 loss to Hawthorn at the MCG on Sunday and on top of the defeat, all of Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Lachie Fogarty (collarbone), Jack Martin (hamstring), Adam Saad (hamstring) and Jordan Boyd (adductor) to injury.

While the Blues are struggling, Johnson thinks they can still go all the way in 2024 should they qualify given the pre-finals bye and the ability to bounce back with injured players returning to the side.

“It's disappointing because we see the talent that they've certainly got on their list and injuries do play a part,” Johnson said on SEN Sportsday.

“But now I go to West Coast this week and no-one's backing them in because of the players that have out of the lineup.

“Then they've got St Kilda at Marvel. If they win two and do everything possible to claim the four points in both games … they’ll be relying on Fremantle and the Bulldogs to mess up … but let's say all that happens for Carlton and they land themselves in the finals.

“The week off could be the determining factor on whether this side can actually win it, and I strongly believe that.”

Given Curnow (1-2 weeks), McKay (1-2 weeks), Saad (1-2 weeks), Tom De Koning (3-4 weeks) and Adam Cerra (TBC) could return in September if the side progresses, Johnson can see the Blues fielding a far stronger side for a potential first final than what they have currently.

He compared the Blues to the situation that the Dogs found themselves in at the end of 2016 when they lost their final home and away game of the season to Fremantle in Perth before getting players back and going on a run to win the flag from seventh on the ladder.

“With the Bulldogs, what they did in 2016 and after that bye, they went to Perth to play West Coast and they got Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, Easton Wood and Jordan Roughead back into their line-up,” Johnson said.

“If Carlton makes finals, with the bye coming back into their line-up will be Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, possibly Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra and Adam Saad from a hamstring as well.

“You can't tell me they're not four or five significant players that can actually get them to where they need to be in September.

“I just sit there and I go, if they make it, they are the one team that will benefit from the bye.”

While Johnson is confident in the Blues if they can get wins in the next two weeks and improve on their current ladder position, he thinks that’s the hardest thing facing the side with the Eagles in Perth and Saints at Marvel to come without many of their star players in the line-up.

“I get where they're at form-wise at the moment, but also in 2016, the Bulldogs lost to Freo, and everyone thought they'd go back to the west and get smashed by 10 goals and come home with their tails between their legs. It didn't happen that way,” Johnson said.

“But the rest of the list has to get it done in the next two weeks in winnable games to get those five players back for finals. That's their challenge right now.”

For the Blues to qualify for the eight, they’d most likely need to win both of their remaining games and hope the Bulldogs drop their Round 24 game against North Melbourne or hope that Fremantle loses both of their remaining games to GWS (home) and Port Adelaide (away).