David King uncovers the key statistic to winning in September

David King has crunched the numbers to uncover the most significant stats in winning September football.

With the finals brand reflecting hotly contested, high-pressure footy, one individual number stands above the rest in dictating which side will come out on top on the day.

“Look at the finals over the last five years", King questioned on SEN’s Breakfast.

"What wins finals? Is it actually winning contest and clearance, or is it winning the outside game, or is it a mix of both?

“If you track those years individually, winning head-to-head clearance battles last year in the finals series won you 50 per cent of finals, the year before 30 per cent, the year before 63, so it’s not absolute that you win clearance, you dominate territory and you win games.

“You win contested possessions, 50 per cent and 56 per cent the last two years, so that’s not really the absolute reason either.

“If the game is sill 50/50 and you’re winning clearance and you’re winning contests, what does that tell you? It probably tells you that what you can do on the outside once you’ve got possession of the ball becomes critical.

“Effective kicking, last year if you won that head-to-head, you won 100 per cent of finals. 66 before that, 89 per cent in 2021 and then 66 and 66 the previous two years.”

Given their effective spreading and use of the wings, Hawthorn have the highest kicking efficiency amongst all clubs in the post-season, with an average rate of 68.8 per cent (third in league). The Bulldogs, for comparison, ranked 10th in the competition, and finished their elimination contest with the Hawks -66 in kicks, for -6 per cent total efficiency.

“It’s how effective you can be on the outside, now that’s a simplistic thing to say, but if you’ve got the ability to get someone into space… the Dog’s couldn’t do it all night.”

As we head deeper into September, Geelong and Port Adelaide are the only two remaining sides ranking outside of the top eight for kicking efficiency during the home and away season.