Champion Data analyst’s Grand Final tip and the key stat behind that prediction

Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne has revealed the key stat that he expects will decide the 2024 Grand Final.

That aspect of the game is on turnover, with Hoyne revealing that across the eight finals so far in 2024, the team that has won the turnover differential has won the game of footy.

Looking at both Brisbane and Sydney in terms of their turnover game, Hoyne isn’t surprised that they’re both inside the top three across the season, with 17 of the last 18 premiers ranking top three in that statistic.

But taking an even closer look at both teams across the last six weeks, Hoyne revealed that the Lions are slightly better in both turning turnovers into scores, but far superior in defending turnovers.

“Until history changes, the turnover game (is most important to win premierships),” Hoyne told SEN’s Sportsday.

“Regardless of what happens on Saturday, the premier will be top three in the turnover game making it 17 of the last 18 premiers to be top three in the turnover game. That’s not top six, not top eight, but top three.

“In terms of points differential from turnover across the whole finals series, so eight games, whoever has won the turnover game has won the game of footy.

“Across the last six weeks, Sydney offensively are number three at converting a turnover into a score, Brisbane are number two defensively.

“But the interesting part here is the other way around. Brisbane are number two offensively in the turnover game, while Sydney are number 11 at defending it.

“They (Sydney) give you a chance and they've given you a chance over the last six weeks even though they’ve been winning.

“That's going to be the challenge for the Swans on Saturday, defensively are they going to be able to shut this down?

“Offensively they both have it ticked, but defensively Brisbane have it ticked and the Swans at the moment have a question mark.”

While the result will rely on far more than just one aspect, Hoyne is backing the better turnover team on paper to lift the cup aloft, that side being Brisbane.

“I said this to a lot of people over the week, the three weeks of travel in a row concerns me,” Hoyne added.

“I don't know if that's going to be a factor. So, I have to park that to the side at the moment.

“Purely looking off our data, I’m going to go Brisbane by eight points.”

Saturday’s AFL Grand Final between the Swans and Lions begins at 2:30pm (AEST).