The Norm Smith Medal and first goal profile to follow for the 2024 Grand Final

How do you pick the Norm Smith Medal winner?

Well, it’s tricky given that absolutely anything can happen on Grand Final day.

But there is somewhat of a Norm Smith profile the may help when assessing your pick for the big day.

We’ve looked back at the last 10 Grand Finals, identified eight statistics categories we believe vital to a Norm Smith performance, and then placed the averages of those stats against the Swans and Lions players to see who fits the profile.

Average stats of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists

Disposals: 28.1
Contested possessions: 12.7
Goals: 2.4
Score involvements: 10.4
Goal assists: 1.6
Clearances: 4.2
Tackles: 3.1
Inside 50s: 5.8

The above numbers have been lined up next to all the players on Grand Final day and the profile has been built to find the perfect Norm Smith player.

In 2024, Sydney gun Isaac Heeney ranks in the top five in six of the above stats categories, as does Brisbane star Lachie Neale.

Those two sit at the top of the betting charts for the Norm, which is no surprise.

Next is Sydney’s Errol Gulden and Brisbane’s Josh Dunkley with four mentions each.

There are five players on three mentions - Hugh McCluggage, Brodie Grundy, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner and Tom Papley.

Conclusion: While heavily favoured to win the Norm, the numbers point to either Isaac Heeney ($5) or Lachie Neale ($8), but you can throw in Errol Gulden ($9) for slightly better value and Josh Dunkley ($26) at very nice double figure odds.

The First Goal in the Grand Final also creates plenty of interest.

Over the last 10 years, seven genuine midfielders have produced the opening goal of the season decider.

Collingwood’s Nick Daicos in 2023, Melbourne’s Christian Petracca in 2021, Richmond’s Dion Prestia in 2020, Adelaide’s Rory Sloane in 2017, Sydney’s Luke Parker in 2016, West Coast’s Luke Shuey in 2014 and Sydney’s Josh Kennedy in 2014 are all recent first goal kickers.

The other three have been Geelong key forward Tom Hawkins, former GWS forward Jeremy Cameron and Collingwood mid/forward Travis Varcoe.

So we’ve opted to look at midfielders while also throwing a sprinkling of mid/forward into the mix.

Conclusion: Sydney pair Chad Warner and Luke Parker (to do it again but this time playing a forward role) are both good value at around $17. For the Lions, we’ve highlighted Cam Rayner ($17) or Hugh McCluggage at massive odds of $34.

All odds with Sportsbet at time of publishing.

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