Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 23

19 games remain in the 2025 home and away AFL season as things really heat up before September.

This round will no doubt shape the top eight, with three clashes between finals contenders.

The first of those comes on Friday between the Dockers and Lions, with the loser almost certain to miss a top four spot.

On Saturday, we see the biggest 'Expansion Cup' in history between the Suns and Giants, while Saturday night sees the ladder-leading Crows host the third-placed Magpies in an enormous matchup.

Other matchups which will be watched closely by neutrals include Hawks v Demons and Swans v Cats.

An upset by Melbourne or Sydney would throw plenty of ladder predictors into disarray.

With that in mind... Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

Essendon v St Kilda

Thursday - 7:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

It’s genuinely hard to fathom the injury list of this Essendon side which now includes captain Zach Merrett.

Dylan Shiel will also miss through a controversial one-game suspension to rub salt into the wound. Brad Scott himself seems bemused and resigned to the fate of the remainder of the season after 10-straight losses.

Kyle Langford will add some much-needed experience to the side and Liam McMahon has shown his value as a sneaky good mid-season recruit. But a win in Round 23, or for the remainder of their season for that matter, would be incredibly impressive.

Having spent most of the week in the headlines thanks to a report of unrest in the senior group, the Saints would be hoping for a stress-less evening back at Marvel Stadium to make it four wins in a row.

Despite this being a game of little relevance to the remainder of the season, St Kilda cannot afford a loss to the heavily depleted and low-on-confidence Dons if they want to sell hope to not only their fans, but their key players alike.

St Kilda don’t typically put teams away despite three wins in a row with the total margin of those wins equating to 19 points. But, if they can release the shackles on Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and get some fluency in their game, that could change on Friday night.

The Bombers did fight on hard against Geelong last week, but the Cats may have taken the foot off the gas in the second half.

Saints to make it 11 losses on the trot for the ravaged Bombers, which would be the third longest losing streak outright in the club’s history.

Prediction: St Kilda by 43 points.

Ethan Clark

Fremantle v Brisbane

Friday - 8:35pm AEST - Optus Stadium

A game with huge finals ramifications as Fremantle enter as surprise favourites after winning 11 of their last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Lions are sitting precariously in fifth after losing to Sydney at home as their season now demands a response with two tough games remaining.

While their destiny is still in their hands, Brisbane must win to give themselves a shot at the all-important double chance. With a growing injury list, it won’t be easy, but this side’s best is still as good as any.

Conversely, the Dockers have a near fully-fit squad to pick from with this looming as their best chance to finish top four since 2015.

If both teams were fully fit and available, most would be backing Brisbane to simply have too much firepower for Fremantle. But given that’s not the case, the Dockers may never have a better chance to beat a real contender at home and pounce on a top-four spot.

Freo have won every game where they’ve kept their opposition below 90 since Round 2, if they can do that again, they’ll back themselves.

If the Lions can score freely, that’s their key to victory.

Prediction: Fremantle by 15 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Gold Coast v GWS

Saturday - 12:35pm AEST - People First Stadium

The Suns are storming towards their first ever finals series with three wins on the trot and six wins in their last seven. They were made to work hard by Carlton last weekend but did enough to get the job done. Gun midfielder Matt Rowell was excellent again, Ben King bagged six goals and Touk Miller was influential. If Damien Hardwick’s Suns can beat the Giants this weekend then they are all but assured a spot in the finals for the first time in club history.

After a horror 88-point loss to the Bulldogs in Round 21, the Giants bounced back strongly last weekend. They comfortably took care of North Melbourne by 54 points to retain their spot in the eight, a game clear of the chasing Bulldogs. In a blow to Giants’ attack, Jake Stringer has succumbed to a hamstring injury after finding form with 14 goals in the past five games. Adam Kingsley’s men in orange and charcoal cannot afford any slip-ups from here.

This is arguably the most significant Gold Coast v GWS fixture since the inception of both expansion clubs. The Suns are trying to secure a history-making finals berth while the Giants are attempting to keep their season alive. The Giants have dominated the Suns over the course of history, winning five on the trot and losing just once (in 2021) since the 2014 season. But it feels like this Suns side is the most mature it has ever been, and with Hardwick at the helm they should do the business.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

All eyes remain off the field regarding Carlton’s remaining two weeks of 2025.

Having failed to reach the heights of expectations this season, the Blues have shifted their attention to 2026, with new CEO Graham Wright commencing a number of changes behind the scenes at IKON Park.

On the field, the Blues have won just seven games from their 21 thus far, however Carlton fans have plenty to look forward to, with a clear shift towards the youth beginning to take shape.

Sam Walsh returns from a foot concern, while Adam Cerra has been ruled out for the season with a knee.

Port Adelaide have ample reasons to close out their 2025 campaign with gusto.

Despite residing in 12th place, winning just eight games this season, the Power have proven on occasion that their list still has plenty to give, falling just a goal short of the in-form Dockers in Round 21.

Beyond their clear on-field ability, Port Adelaide are continuing to chase further commitment from star Zak Butters, while long-term coach Ken Hinkley and club legend Travis Boak play out their final away game before the end of their extensive tenure.

Jack Lukosius and Jase Burgoyne will miss the remainder of the season with leg concerns.

A bottom-nine bout sandwiched between three top eight shapers; this clash presents as a relatively insignificant contest between two injury-ridden outsiders.

That being said, this clash could still have major implications, with draft capital beginning to take shape amongst the lower-end sides.

Carlton wrapped up their clash with Gold Coast in phenomenal fashion, mounting an almighty comeback and falling just short in a contest that will provide their youngsters plenty of confidence.

As for the Power, a difficult loss to Freo will be sure to kill the faith over the remaining few games, and in saving for Ken and Boak’s final home clash next week, the Blues should run away with this one.

Prediction: Carlton by 14 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG

The equation is simple for the Hawks. Win this week and they’re most likely playing finals for a second season in a row.

However, as shown just last week against the Bulldogs, Melbourne won’t be going down without a fight.

And they were pretty good against the Hawks back in Round 9.

Despite a six goal to one final quarter, the Demons really took it up to an in-form Hawthorn that day and put themselves in a position to pull off an almighty upset.

For three quarters, the Dees were extremely hard to put away. They led the Hawks in contested possessions, inside 50s, tackles and clearances going into that final term, which makes the win for Hawthorn even more impressive with how they were able to produce an absolute domination in the last quarter to run away with a 35-point win.

A major factor for that win was Josh Weddle, who conveniently for Melbourne, won’t be out there on Saturday.

This season, the Hawks have been a much improved side defensively. With the additions of Josh Battle and Tom Barrass in the off-season, Hawthorn have become a very difficult side to score against.

The Hawks are ranked second in points allowed off turnover, third in points conceded from forward half and second for intercept possessions so far this year, which is a really good place to be in heading into September.

And with the Demons struggling to connect offensively through out the year (despite improving over the last few weeks), the task seems to big to handle for a coach-less side (yes, we know Troy Chaplin is there) who are counting the days until they can go on their end of season trip.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 24 points.

Zac Sharpe

Adelaide v Collingwood

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

What a game this promises to be!

The top-of-the-table Adelaide Crows have won seven in a row and are powering their way to a double chance.

Matthew Nicks has put together one of the most damaging sides when it comes to attack, averaging 100.2 points per game.

At the other end the Crows are conceding just 70.4 points per game and have become the most robust team defensively.

They were given an almighty scare by West Coast last week which did shows some cracks, but as good teams do they forced their way to a win.

Collingwood’s recent struggles have been well documented with four defeats in their last five games.

The Magpies have produced an uncharacteristic block of form which has seen them slip to third spot and in danger of dropping out of the four with a loss this weekend.

Craig McRae will have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to fix their errors and you can bet our bottom dollar that the Pies will turn up in Adelaide on Saturday night.

It’s not a stretch to suggest the Pies could bounce back in style here and reignite their season, but the percentage play is to tip the Crows at home.

So that’s what we’ll be doing.

Prediction: Adelaide by 6 points.

Andrew Slevison

North Melbourne v Richmond

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Ninja Stadium

Both North Melbourne and Richmond will be looking to close out their season with one final win and avoid a dreaded bottom two finish.

The Kangaroos have been one of the most disappointing sides in 2025 with just four wins and are currently 17th. Despite bringing in plenty of experience during the off-season, the Shinboners thought this would be the year they would finally start to climb the ladder. It has proved to be anything but.

They were never really in the game last week against the Giants, going down by 54 points. Luke Parker had one of his better games in royal blue and white by collecting 29 disposals and kicking a goal while Colby McKercher’s excellent end to 2025 continued with 27 disposals and one goal.

Sunday’s match is the Roos’ best chance to claim four points for a while, with their last win coming against Carlton in Round 15. Richmond is one of the only teams that North has a reasonable record against in recent times, having won three of their last four dating back to 2022.

Despite having very low expectations entering the season, the Tigers have had a promising year, winning five matches and losing three by under a goal to currently sit 16th. Although a loss to the Kangaroos would drop them down to 17th, it wouldn’t change their draft hand with the Tigers currently holding North’s first-round pick.

The Tigers, amid some massive defeats, continue to show plenty of fight to end the season, highlighted by a four-point loss to St Kilda at the MCG last weekend. Jack Ross and Rhyan Mansell stood up in a side littered with kids, with Ross finishing with 26 touches while Mansell booted two goals from his 17 disposals.

Adem Yze will be hoping to see more improvement from his budding stars Taj Hotton and Harry Armstrong which the club can build on in 2026.

While a win will mean a lot more to North Melbourne, Richmond’s form has been much better in recent weeks and looks like they could hand the Kangaroos their eighth defeat in a row.

Prediction: Richmond by 15 points.

Luke Mathews

Sydney v Geelong

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - SCG

Sydney are proving to be quite the banana peel for teams on the run into finals. Can they do it again here against Geelong?

They’re 5-1 in their last six, and while they don’t have Brodie Grundy this week, they’ll be thrilled to hurt Geelong’s chances of top two despite their own finals hopes now officially dead and buried.

For the Cats, they’ve won their last four in a row, although those victories have come against St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Essendon.

They also haven’t beaten a top 10 team since Gold Coast in Round 13… which will give the Swans some more hope.

Still, the pick has to be the Cats even away from home, even if they haven’t beaten the Swans at the SCG since 2019.

Expect Geelong to be too strong defensively for a Sydney forward line that’s missing a little bit of punch if Isaac Heeney doesn’t absolutely fire.

The Swans are a real sniff, but it’d still be a shock if they got it done.

Prediction: Geelong by 19 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

The Western Bulldogs will be hoping to climb back inside the top eight for the first time since Round 17 when they take on West Coast.

Many believed the Bulldogs were one of the most dangerous sides at the midway point of the year however losses to Brisbane and Adelaide saw them slip outside the top eight. Luke Beveridge’s men continue to be brilliantly led by skipper Marcus Bontempelli while Ed Richards and Sam Darcy have broken through to become A-grade superstars.

The Bulldogs were made to work against Melbourne last weekend with the Dees hitting the front at the end of the third quarter before the Bulldogs steadied with six final-quarter goals sealing the win. The Dogs' midfield continues to be the hallmark of their game with the team ranked first for clearances and fifth for contested possessions however their defence still needs work.

West Coast's difficult 2025 season only has two weeks left, with the side already looking ahead to 2026. Despite going down last week the Eagles still managed to catch the eye of everyone in the competition, only losing to ladder leaders Adelaide by nine points after leading at three-quarter time.

Tom McCarthy’s brilliant start to his AFL career continued with the mid-season draftee collecting another 29 touches while Tim Kelly was back to his best with 25 disposals and a goal. Sunday’s match will provide another opportunity for the Eagles to get games into youngsters Hamish Davis and Jobe Shanahan who have shown plenty of promise so far and will carry the club forward.

Although they appear to be up against in once again, the Eagles will be thinking back to Round 23 2023 when they defied all odds and knocked off the Bulldogs and ended their finals hopes.

Should be very straight forward for the Bulldogs once again with a top eight spot on the line and their midfield prowess set to be too much for the inexperienced Eagles.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 46

Luke Mathews