Owner’s favourable and brutal Melbourne Cup calls

Prominent owner John O’Neill has run the rule over the 2025 Melbourne Cup field.

O’Neill has a trio of horses in the great two-mile handicap - Valiant King, Buckaroo and Middle Earth - who he all gives some chance to.

But there are plenty, in his opinion, that cannot win for various reasons.

“I think it’s an unbelievable race, but I think there’s (at least) 15 horses that can’t win,” O’Neill said on SEN & RSN’s Monday Means Test.

O’Neill’s runner-by-runner analysis:

1 - AL RIFFA - “I don’t think Al Riffa with 59kg drawn out there (barrier 19) can win. I don’t think he’s got any hope at all.” ❌

2 - BUCKAROO - “I think Buckaroo can win, drawn a good gate (12).” ✅

3 - ARAPAHO - “Arapaho shouldn’t even be there. Sorry to be rude to the owners.” ❌

4 - VAUBAN - “Vauban isn’t going good enough.” ❌

5 - CHEVALIER ROSE - “Chevalier Rose is a dry tracker.” ❌

6 - PRESAGE NOCTURNE - “We all want to be on this. It’s a very nice horse. Bu the jockey Stephane Pasquier wouldn’t know to get from Crown Casino to Chin Chin, so how’s he going to get around Flemington on a wet track with 23 other horses around him on a wet track. He’s a great horse who can run top five but he can’t win.” 5️⃣

7 - MDDLE EARTH - “Blinkers on, wet track, 3200 - he’s done what he’s needed. Don’t be surprised…” 🤷🏻‍♂️

8 - MEYDAAN - “Stop it, can’t win from the barrier (22).” ❌

9 - ABSURDE - “No thanks.” ❌

10 - FLATTEN THE CURVE - “Please, no.” ❌

11 - LAND LEGEND - “Land Legend shouldn’t be in the race.” ❌

12 - SMOKIN’ ROMANS - “Nine years old, no.” ❌

13 - CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD - “No.” ❌

14 - HALF YOURS - “Great top five chance.” 5️⃣

15 - MORE FELONS - “More Felons shouldn’t be in the race.” ❌

16 - ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - “Can win a Perth Cup or an Adelaide Cup, but can’t win a Melbourne Cup.” ❌

17 - FURTHUR - “He’s a very nice staying horse, normally runs in fields of four. So we’ll, see how it goes with 24.” 🤷🏻‍♂️

18 - PARCHMENT PARTY - “Well, there’ll be a party… no hope.” ❌

19 - ATHABASCAN - “Athabascan shouldn’t be there.” ❌

20 - GOODIE TWO SHOES - “Should be on Broadway.” ❌

21 - RIVER OF STARS - “Can definitely run top four.” 4️⃣

22 - ROYAL SUPREMACY - “Can run top five.” 5️⃣

23 - TORRANZINO - “Can run top five or six. Nice horse.” 5️⃣

24 - VALIANT KING - “I think Valiant King, with the weight (51kg), can win the race.” ✅

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