The ceiling & floor for all 18 AFL teams in 2026

What is the ceiling and where is the floor for your AFL club in 2026?

SEN The Run Home's Josh Jenkins and Daniel Harford assessed each of the 18 clubs to see where they sit in the landscape ahead of the new season.

See what they think below:

Ceiling: Premiership

“The ceiling has to be premiership glory based on what we saw last year,” Jenkins said.

“The squad is young, emerging, talented, dynamic. They’ve got an amazing home field advantage which is worth plenty to them.”

Floor: 10th

“The floor is landing somewhere in the play-in zone.

“So worst case scenario that is 10th, or they fall to 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th.

“They’ve got a tough draw this year which is incredibly relevant.”

Ceiling: Premiership

“It’s obvious – their ceiling is a three-peat.

“Potentially, and hopefully, Keidean Coleman can get back. They’ve got so much coming in, with (Sam) Draper and (Oscar) Allen via free agency.

“There is an embarrassment of riches in almost every position. How do names like Wilmot, Jaspa Fletcher and both Ashcroft’s not continue to improve? It’s terrifying.”

Floor: Sixth

“They are a top six team. They are not going lower than sixth.”

Ceiling: Top 10

“I don’t have high hopes for this team. It’s honestly as much as I can see from this team.

“From a personnel perspective, they have taken a significant step backwards.

“Tom De Koning, Charlie Curnow and Jack Silvagni – you’ve taken a step backward on paper without them in your 23. That’s a hole.”

Floor: 14th-18th

“I think they could be really bad.

“Nine wins (last year). If you feel the loss of De Koning, your ruck position goes from a position of strength to a position where you’re getting belted.

“You lose your two-time Coleman Medallist, so you need to replace 50 goals straight away.

“You’ve still got that same problem beside (Jacob) Weitering… if that is all still there, those nine wins become six wins.”

Ceiling: Preliminary Final

“I cannot see them getting to or winning an AFL Grand Final in 2026.

“They’ll be a tough out. They’ve still got the best or second-best player in the game (in Nick Daicos). Josh Daicos plays around the ball…

“If Dan Houston can play like the Port Adelaide version and not the version we saw last year… they are not hopeless by any stretch of the imagination.”

Floor: “Free falling”

“It’s basically the same squad. Brody Mihocek played most of the back half of last season with an injury, but he is incredibly important to that forward line.

“In the front half of the ground, Dan McStay is going to have to take a huge leap. He’s never been a big goal kicker, but they might need that from him.

“They got the best version of Jamie Elliott ever. Does that come back around again? Bobby Hill – TBC at the moment. Sidebottom and Pendlebury – can you expect them to play the levels they played in Rounds 1-12 last year?

“It will be about what happens in the back half of the season.”

Ceiling: Wildcard Round

“It might be a controversial ceiling, because they might break their finals drought by finishing in the play-in.

“That is their ceiling. They aren’t going north of the play-in. 8th, 9th, 10th.”

Floor: Six wins

“Two of their better, or more influential six aren’t going to be there. One is Sam Draper, who has gone to Brisbane. Who is going to start in the ruck in Round 1 is baffling to me.

“Nic Martin is the other one. You’re starting behind the eight ball already, (but) they surely can’t cop an injury run like they had last year.

“I’m low on Essendon – I just can’t see enough needle-moving talent on that list.”

Ceiling: Premiership

“I’m bullish on Freo. They are in the mix – they can win it.

“So much was left to Jordan Clark (off the back flank). You add Judd McVee to that group – there’s now a couple of guys that can move the ball.

“That’s a significant upgrade. I think they can win the Premiership.”

Floor: Top of Wildcard

Ceiling: Preliminary Final

“They can't win it.

“Last year was very close to perfect for them. The build up - I think nine out of 10 neutrals were saying it was perfectly set up for the Cats.

“All of a sudden, Geelong's weak draw in the back half of the season become the perfect lead in. They were primed and ready to go, and they were run off the park.

“I've got them right around the mark, but not quite a contender.”

Floor: 14 wins

“Top end play-in team. They won't fall further than that.”

Ceiling: Premiership

“They can win it. They've got a lovely cake, and they are simply adding whipped cream at this point.

“Christian Petracca - he is the cream. And the sprinkles? Dogs fans will not want to watch Jamarra (Ugle-Hagan). He has trained hard and is ready to rock and roll.

“Zeke Uwland - if he is as good as his brother, look out! Charlie Ballard back in the lineup is the best part to all of this. I see some James Sicily about him.

“They should be winning a premiership in the next two or three years.”

Floor: Top 6

“There will be no play-in games for them.

“I'm most confident of any team in the competition that they will finish top four. More them than Brisbane.

“I don't see an obvious weakness.”

Ceiling: Semi Finals

“This club gets key injuries every single year. Jesse Hogan limped to the finish line last year.

“Josh Kelly's year is in jeopardy. Can they finally remain healthy for a season?

“I don't think they are a top four team. They can make the second week of finals, but I don't think they can win a Prelim or a Grand Final.”

Floor: 12th

“It's not a freefall, but it could be a slide.

“The backline held them together a lot of times last year. Is there a middle gear?

“When they get their run and gun happening with Callaghan, Ash and Whitfield, they look fantastic.

“But they don't seem to have an amber. They only have 100, or 40.

“Can they attack in a manner that doesn't leave their defence vulnerable?”

Ceiling: Preliminary Final

“They are not a premiership contender for mine.

“No Zach Merrett means no premiership. The midfield is not sensational.

“You cannot win the premiership with that midfield. I just cannot see it. The game is built on what happens around the ball.

“The group, I love, apart from the midfield.”

Floor: Top 6

“Their floor is really high. I just can't see them getting over the hurdle.”

Ceiling: Wildcard

“I wrestled with this, and I’ve out them in the bottom of the play-in games.

“I’ve been firmly against the Dees, but I’ll give them a little bit of grace.”

Floor: 16th

“To say their floor would be 12th is too much reliance on just because you’ve got a new coach you’re going to be better.

“It might take Steven King some time to reshape the list the way he wants it for that group to improve.”

Ceiling: 10th

“The ceiling is because of the midfield and the forward line.

“I'd love to see them use Cam Zurhaar around the ball. Get him involved in the game, bring him up to stoppage.

“I thought they were going to make the leap last year, and they were incredibly disappointing.

“I wish it was higher.”

Floor: 17th

“The game that Jeremy Cameron kicked 11 still keeps me awake.

“I don't think I've ever seen a team as dysfunctional defensively as that. It was a bad night.

“Defensively, the way they play is worrying, and I put defensive stuff on coaches.”

Ceiling: Wildcard

“I surprised myself when I came up with this - I still think they can be a play-in team.

“That sounds strange because they made a prelim in 2024.

“I love Mitch Georgiades, there’s Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, hopefully a healthy Jason Horne-Francis and Miles Bergman I’m a big fan of.

“I think Port have got some pretty good top end talent, they’ve just got a lot of players that we don’t know if they’re good enough.”

Floor: 17th

“I wonder if the backside falls out of them a little bit.

“We talk about health and we’ve already seen JHF not participate that much in pre-season training.

“It wouldn’t shock me if they finished second last.”

Ceiling: 10th

“I can get warm to this group. I’m up and about based on what this group can possibly do.

“How can you not enjoy and be enthused about their growth by what they showed last year?

“They’ve got some nice vehicles. It could be a rapid rise from what was an all of club clean-out.

“I think they could again this year after winning five last year. They could make the bottom of the play-in this year.”

Floor: 17th

“The floor is probably a little bit of stagnation from the kids and an over-reliance on them if the older guys get injured.

“There’s no doubt they could have a stale second season (some of the kids), progression is not always up and up and up.

“I could still see them finishing 17th.”

Ceiling: Win wildcard

“They’re chips in but it might take time to integrate the new players.

“There might be 12 months of growth needed.

“The ceiling would be to win a play-in (wilcard game). If they happen to finish 12th or 13th I’m not hanging them.”

Floor: 12th

“I still think their floor is relatively strong because they have added some genuine talent.

“I don’t think they’ll finish lower than 12th. That’s probably the narrowest floor and ceiling I’ve given.”

Ceiling: Top 4

“I don’t think they can win the premiership but I think they can finish in the top four. Their ceiling is top four.

“I still think there is enough query on the back six. There is a query on the forward line but the talent will take care of itself.”

Floor: 8th or 9th

“Their floor is fairly high. I’d say 8 or 9 will be their floor.

“I like them, I just don’t think they’re a premiership winning group.”

Ceiling: Six wins

“If enough things go right I’d like to think they can win six. They only won one god damn game last year.

“Some of the players that should help them improve are Jake Waterman who is key with no Oscar Allen. Brandon Starcevich hopefully plays each and every week. He adds stability and is hard to play against.

“Dev Robertson gets his opportunity to add a bit around the ball. We should see even more from Ryan Maric as a ball user. Harley Reid should improve. I really likely Tom McCarthy.

“I like Jobe Shanahan, Archer Reid, and Cooper Duff-Tytler - if he can play the game at all he is going to be a beloved figure with that name.

“I like what they’ve got from a key position perspective with their youngsters. But they won’t really help them win games this year.”

Floor: One win again

“If you asked me to choose which is more likely - six wins or one - I’d say one win and wouldn’t hesitate.

“That’s a shame but that’s just where they’re at.”

Ceiling: 3rd

“I think they can touch the bottom of the top four.

“I don’t have them as a premiership contender and I’ll be surprised if many do have them winning the premiership this year.

“Third is still a very good achievement.”

Floor: 11th or 12th

“I still think their underbelly needs to improve for them to be a proper contender.

“If you said what’s more likely, 3rd or 11th, I’d say 11th is more likely than 3rd.”