Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 1, 2026

All 18 teams are in action this weekend kicking off with Thursday's intriguing Carlton v Richmond clash at the MCG.

Will the Blues start 0-2? Or will they bounce back?

All eyes will then be on the Essendon v Hawthorn Friday night fixture featuring Zach Merrett.

Saturday is stacked with the Bulldogs v Giants starting us off before a raft of contenders facing off with Cats v Dockers, Swans v Lions and Magpies v Crows.

Things aren't as exciting on Sunday for the neutrals, but fans will be keen to get their first look at the Power, Roos, Dees and Eagles for the first time in 2026.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

CARLTON v RICHMOND

Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT - MCG

Carlton’s start to the new season was far from ideal, falling by 63 points in a demolition at the hands of Sydney. After a strong start in the first half, the Blues conceded an unfathomable 12 goals in the third term, run over the top with ease in a disappointing showing. The club lost Adam Saad to injury ahead of their traditional Round 1 clash with Richmond – a contest that the Blues lost incredibly in 2025. A must-win for Carlton and for coach Michael Voss.

The second youngest side in the AFL, Richmond enters 2026 with hopes to continue their all-out rebuild. With a premiership far from the expectation, Adem Yze’s third campaign as coach will once again look to build on experience within the youth. The highly touted Josh Smillie and draft compatriot Taj Hotton will both miss a portion of the Tigers’ season with injury, alongside seventh overall pick Sam Cumming. That said, fellow top 10 draftee Sam Grlj will debut, while former No.1 pick Sam Lalor looks to explode into stardom across the season.

Simply put, the Blues cannot afford to lose this game. A disastrous start to the 2026 campaign has Carlton chasing tails from the jump, and Voss could well be on the chopping block if form isn’t rectified as soon as possible. As for the Tigers, we know exactly what this young mob is capable of – winning on the biggest stage, and this just might be the biggest stage these Tiger cubs will face across 2026, bar an extortionate jump into the top 10. Round 1, MCG, Thursday night, it hardly gets better, but do the Blues have what it takes to respond? We think so. If not, look out.

Prediction: Carlton by 22 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

ESSENDON v HAWTHORN

Friday - 7:40pm AEDT - MCG

Essendon enters 2026 with low expectations. They suffered a huge curse of the injury bug in 2025, and that has continued into this season with some key names already missing. It’ll be another year of development for the young side and all eyes will be on former captain Zach Merrett who tried and failed to get to Round 1 opponent and rivals Hawthorn during the trade period. Their best is strong under Brad Scott, but even the most positive Bomber fans aren’t expecting miracles.

Hawthorn stumbled out of the blocks in Opening Round, losing to GWS by 27 points in western Sydney. The Hawks are one of the competition’s most exciting teams and are well placed at either end of the ground. It’s on ball where many expect them to struggle somewhat after their failed Zach Merrett pursuit and Will Day’s seemingly endless list of injuries. Under Sam Mitchell, the Hawks are without doubt a finals side, but the question remains can they truly contend for a flag in 2026?

This is a matchup between two traditional rivals but also two teams with hugely varying expectations. No one is picking the Bombers to win this one as they don’t match the Hawks anywhere on the ground apart from at the coalface.

That could keep them in it for a bit, but expect Hawthorn’s class inside 50 to help them kick a winning score. Essendon’s forward line, while young and exciting, should also struggle up against the likes of Tom Barrass, Josh Battle, Karl Amon, Jarman Impey, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 41 points.

Lachlan Geleit

WESTERN BULLDOGS v GWS

Saturday - 1:15pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium

There is an air of expectation around the Doggies this year and they did nothing to dampen that in Opening Round. Luke Beveridge’s side went to Brisbane and knocked off the back-to-back premiers on their home deck. It was a blistering game of footy with Ed Richards dominant while recruit Connor Budarick impressed on his red, white and blue debut. Next up is the enemy, GWS, who they’ve only lost to once since the 2019 elimination final.

It was a very smart start to the season from the Giants who despite fielding an undermanned side managed to beat Hawthorn by 27 points at home. The engine room was led by off-season addition Clayton Oliver alongside Finn Callaghan and captain Toby Greene. They took advantage of the Hawks’ most obvious issue – the midfield. Jake Stringer starred with five goals while Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi kicked three each. It could be a tough forward line to keep quiet.

The Dogs have enjoyed this supposed rivalry in recent times. They’ve won nine of the last 10 and four in a row against the Giants including an 88-point whipping at Marvel Stadium in Round 21 last year. The free-scoring Doggies averaged 115.8 points under the lid with a 10-3 record in 2025. The Giants won twice from three attempts at the venue last year but that Dogs loss would be ringing in their ears. It’s hard to tip against the hounds at Marvel, especially after last weekend’s exploits.

Prediction: Bulldogs by 16 points.

Andrew Slevison

GEELONG v FREMANTLE

Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT - GMHBA Stadium

Geelong’s Opening Round game against Gold Coast was a disappointment, losing by a mammoth 56 points. After making the Grand Final last year, many expected the Cats to put up a better fight against the Suns. The huge loss was largely due to missing star veterans Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, but that duo will re-enter the side this week for their first appearance of the season. Let’s see if the Cats can rebound from their Opening Round loss.

Fremantle, on the other hand, have been hailed as the side which could rise the ranks again in 2026 by many pundits. After finishing sixth last season, but being eliminated in Finals Week 1, the Dockers are expected to contest for the flag this year. Emerging star Murphy Reid has all Fremantle fans excited for the year ahead and is set to take the leap to the next level. Former Pie Mason Cox will also bolster Fremantle’s stocks this year, and they will be a scary team to play for all opponents.

Fremantle are flying under the radar heading into this game. While Geelong has won each of their last seven home games following a loss, the Dockers should be snapping that streak here. We saw Sydney fail to make the finals last season after getting thumped by the Lions in the Grand Final the year prior – could we see this same fate happen to the Cats? While Geelong will have Dangerfield and Cameron back in their squad, that doesn’t automatically mean they will win. Expect Fremantle to systematically break down the Cats at GMHBA and prove why they are expected to be premiership contenders this year.

Prediction: Fremantle by 33 points.

Connor Scanlon

SYDNEY v BRISBANE

Saturday - 7:10pm AEDT - SCG

The Swans kicked off 2026 with a resounding 63-point smashing of Carlton courtesy of a remarkable 12-goal third quarter at the SCG. After a slow start Dean Cox’s Swannies managed to get motoring after half-time, turning it on in style to put the Blues to the sword.

It was a big night for Charlie Curnow who opened his Swans account against his old club, finishing with three majors. He’s had some quiet games against Brisbane in recent years and he’ll be eager to cash in against a Lions defence devoid of suspended duo Harris Andrews and Darcy Gardiner. Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney turned on the afterburners in the second half last week. They’ll be a handful for the back-to-back premiers.

From a Lions viewpoint, Chris Fagan will be without several premiership players including another co-captain in Hugh McCluggage (calf) plus Zac Bailey (also suspended) and young forward Logan Morris (hand) who all come out of the team that narrowly lost to the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night.

Can the Lions handle these significant absences on the road against a side with its tail up?

We know Brissie has been able to perform with backs to the wall in the last two seasons, but with the SCG support behind them the Swans should be good enough to tick this off. They’ll want to be if they are to be taken seriously in flag conversations.

It won’t be easy. We know the Lions are a top quality outfit, but with key defensive pillars missing it may be a bridge too far for Brisbane.

Prediction: Sydney by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison

COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE

Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT - MCG

A replay of last year’s Qualifying Final, these teams do not like each other one bit… if only Izak Rankine was available to play.

Collingwood enter this one coming off the back of a strong Opening Round win over St Kilda by 12 points. The Magpies controlled the ball all night at the MCG with 147 marks, signalling a change in game style which is heavy on short kicks and attacking via handballs.

Nick and Josh Daicos were the beneficiaries of that, while Dan Houston got back to his best using the ball out of half-back.

Adelaide plays for the first time since bowing out of the 2025 finals series in straight sets after finishing minor premiers. Like the Magpies, they’ve been tipped to slide somewhat this season, so they’ll be out to answer those doubters.

The Crows’ key to victory is their high-powered offense. We know the Magpies are a super defensive side, but that doesn’t let them kick big scores often. If the Crows can reach 80+, they’re well in this.

Still, it’s hard to look past the Magpies who have lost only one of their last 12 to the Crows, particularly at the MCG where they’ve only lost to Adelaide twice at since the turn of the century.

If their clean users get going around the ball, the Magpies should have a little too much class for Adelaide here, but this could still go either way.

Prediction: Collingwood by 11 points.

Lachlan Geleit

NORTH MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

Sunday - 1:10pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium

The Kangaroos have ample to prove in 2026, and this contest is set up as a perfect opportunity to do so. North Melbourne has failed to progress in their rebuild, finishing in the bottom four for six straight years including all three seasons under Alastair Clarkson. And when the conditioned appeared perfect to elevate their game in 2025, the club could only mount five wins and a draw in a rather dire campaign. Now, the Roos must find the next gear, and a home clash against Port Adelaide could be their chance to kick off the season with a bang.

As for Port Adelaide, their first contest under Josh Carr will be telling as to how their season might transpire. Many predict that the Power will remain outside the September slots after slipping to 13th in Ken's final campaign, however, with a returning Todd Marshall, Zak Butters driving up his value and Mitch Georgiades ready to compete for a Coleman Medal, the Power are far from out of finals contention this year.

If the Community Series was anything to go by, Port Adelaide shouldn't have an issue taking care of a bottom half team. A 73-point demolition over the Eagles out West fired doubt into the doubters, however as we've seen time and time again, pre-season is hardly a reflection of how a side may travel in the home and away season. The Kangaroos were on the opposite end of the scale, failing to strike much confidence into their supporter base after barely scraping by an undermanned Magpies side. A telling contest, and, in a weird way, one to watch. That said, we like Port Adelaide to get the job done.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 27 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

MELBOURNE v ST KILDA

Sunday - 3:15pm AEDT - MCG

Following St Kilda’s Opening Round loss to Collingwood they face a new-look Melbourne as Steven King takes the helm for his first game.

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Dees fans are still recovering from the modern-day miracle on grass when Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera led his Saints to victory coming from 46 points down at three-quarter time.

It was the largest fourth-quarter comeback in V/AFL history with Wanganeen-Milera’s two goals in the final minute solidifying himself as one of the game’s elite stars.

However, this Round 1 clash will have a totally different look for Melbourne who take to the field for the first time in 2026. The usual suspects of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver will be notable absences with Trent Rivers, Harvey Langford and Caleb Windsor all set for an increase in midfield minutes.

There were a plethora of high profile deals that went through in the dying stages of deadline day during the 2025 AFL Trade Period but one that flew under the radar was the move of former St Kilda Captain Jack Steele, who was traded to Melbourne for a 2027 3rd round pick. He was reportedly keen to stay with the Saints but was shown the door so it will be interesting to see how he performs against his old side first up.

Melbourne’s pre-season matches revealed a new look approach with faster ball movement and higher scores which could pose an interesting battle against Ross Lyon’s men who were typically defensive in their first game against the Magpies.

Expectations are that the Saints will respond following their Opening Round loss but don’t be surprised if the Dees pinch this match in a close one.

Prediction: Melbourne by 8 points.

Harry Cumming

GOLD COAST v WEST COAST

Sunday - 6:10pm AEDT - People First Stadium

This could be ugly.

The Suns were clinical in their dismantling of Geelong at home last week and West Coast didn’t show much promise in their pre-season fixtures.

The last time they faced each other was Round 1 of 2025 when the Suns travelled to Optus Stadium and trounced the Eagles by 87 points in an emphatic win.

Eagles fans will be excited to get a glimpse of the future with 2025 Number 1 Pick Willem Duursma alongside fellow 1st round picks Cooper Duff-Tytler and Josh Lindsay who are all in the conversation to make their debut.

For the Suns there are superstars all over the field and plenty more who are currently pushing for selection. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicked 5 goals in a VFL practice match last week but may still be forced to wait another week before making his club debut.

This is shaping up to be another perfect opportunity for Suns recruit Christian Petracca to bank a perfect 3 Brownlow votes after his 34 disposals and 3 goals in Opening Round whilst Ben King will be looking to fill his boots with a big bag of goals to make an early season Coleman Medal statement.

Andrew McQualter’s side appear to be up against it in almost every potential matchup across the field.

Expect to see a 10+ goal margin at three quarter time before Damien Hardwick pulls his stars from the field as the Suns cruise to a comfortable win in the final quarter.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 62 points.

Harry Cumming