The X-Factor that could break the game for Queensland

• LISTEN LIVE TO ORIGIN I
• SEN will have THREE different calls with NSW and Queensland specific calls alongside a neutral call
• Our radio coverage begins from 7pm AEST
• Game I takes place at Accor Stadium, Sydney
• Kick-off is at 8:05pm

After plenty of build-up across the last few weeks, the 45th edition of the State of Origin series is set to get underway tonight.

With Queensland regaining the shield in a decisive Game III win on enemy territory, NSW, led by coach Laurie Daley, will be desperate to reclaim what was once theirs in front of a packed out Accor Stadium.

The Maroons will look to repeat the feat with their fourth win in their last five games at the venue.

Either way, we're in for a ripsnorter of a match.

Make sure to follow all the latest news in the build-up to Game I below.

PREDICTIONS:

Adam Doueihi's Origin Prediction:

• Score prediction: NSW 18-16
• Man of the Match: Nathan Cleary
• First try scorer: Hudson Young

Greg Alexander's Origin Prediction:

• Score prediction: NSW 28-22
• Man of the Match: James Tedesco

Jimmy Smith's Origin Prediction:

• Score prediction: NSW 22-16
• Man of the Match: Isaah Yeo

Could Mam be the Maroons' man?

Game I will be the first time that we have a six-man bench in State of Origin.

With that change, it has added an extra element of intrigue in selection.

One of the players that will feature on Queensland's bench is Brisbane five-eighth Ezra Mam, with Chad Townsend believing he could be the X-Factor for Billy Slater's side.

“He's the X factor you've got on the Queensland bench,” Townsend said.

“There's no doubt about it, a game breaker, and at his best.

“You talk about someone who can come on and change the game with his leg speed, with his speed, his footwork, his passing game.

“When I think about Queensland, the way that Michael Morgan used to play, remember when Michael Morgan, they used to split the field, middle of the field, and then Michael Morgan, they'd almost play two fullbacks, right?

“They'd split two halves, one half on either side, they'd have a fullback, and then Michael Morgan.

“So, it's been entrenched in the way that the Queenslanders have played for a long time, but Ezra Mam (is) absolutely someone who can come on and break the game wide open for Queensland, depending on how Billy Slater will use his six-man bench.”

Final squads are in

With kick off less than an hour away, the sides for NSW and Queensland have been confirmed.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Kotoni Staggs 5. Tolutau Koula 18. Ethan Strange 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Haumole Olakau’atu 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Jacob Saifiti 17. Blayke Brailey 19. Casey McLean 21. Matt Burton

Coach: Laurie Daley

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Max Plath 14. Briton Nikora 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Trent Loiero 18. Ezra Mam 19. Gehamat Shibasaki

Coach: Billy Slater

Why Maloney likes Strange's inclusion

Jimmy Maloney has backed the inclusion of Canberra's Ethan Strange, believing he can work well with Nathan Cleary.

“I like the inclusion of Ethan Strange,” Maloney said on SEN’s The Run Home.

“Obviously, Mitchell Moses will be a loss; he was really good for New South Wales in last year's series, and it's sad for him to miss it.

“But Ethan Strange is an unbelievable runner of the football, so I think New South Wales fall into a system where Nathan Cleary takes full control of organising, steering the side around, and Ethan Strange plays to his strengths.”

Smith: Why Game I is Cleary's time to shine

The importance of winning Game I cannot be understated.

In the last six series, the side that won the series opener went on to win the shield.

With that in mind, SEN's Jimmy Smith believes the Blues must get the victory on home soil to help regain the shield, believing Nathan Cleary needs to lift.

“I am saying for this series, 2026, if New South Wales don't win this game, and I know we've had an instance two years ago where they lost the first game in New South Wales, and they won in Queensland, but if New South Wales doesn't win this game tonight…we may as well pack up,” Smith said on SEN.

“You must win this game, New South Wales.

“How and who and all of that will play out over the course of 80 minutes.

“I can't help but think that this is Nathan Cleary's time.”

“Last year was very disappointing (for NSW),” Greg Alexander added.

“They were disappointed and that's left them disappointed, which I'm thinking will play into motivating them for something special tonight and, and hopefully for the rest of the series.”

"Kill or be killed"

No stranger to State or Origin fisticuffs, Greg Bird says the approach to the series is simple: Kill or be killed.

"I think I got an upper cut," he said of his fight with Corey Parker back in the day. "Your mate Mick Ennis started it. It gets rid of frustration. There's not much pre-meditated to be honest, you go in every game kill or be killed and sometimes you got the upper hand."

Asked about what he expects from tonight's clash and the state of league in general he added: "Who knows what Vlandy's has done to the refs, all we want to watch is two teams going hard at it and for the ref to keep his whistle and arm down. If it's a good contest I'll be happy - win, lose or dfraw.

"Im not particulary (happy with the state of the game) I miss the contact,. I know they have made rules to make it a high scoring game. I miss the defensive efforts, the physical side of it. They're now the games of yesteryear. There's no reason they can't loosen the strings for Origin."

Michael Ennis wants Blues job

Amid specdulation this will be Laurie Daley's final series ast the helm of NSW, speculation about his replacement is rife.

After confirming his future exit from the Panthers, Ivan Cleary said he would happily coach representative football but Corey Parker is backing Michael Ennis to get the nod.

"He’s had five series and he’s won one," Parker said on SENQ when discussing Daley. "By all reports this is Laurie’s last. I’m bias but I reckon Michael Ennis would do an unbelievable job for the Blues.

"I think you have to go down the younger path. Ivan Cleary is coming off contract. They need people that are in touch with the week-to-week system."

As luck would have it, Ennis was a guest on SEN 1170 in Sydney at the time, so when told about Parker's backing he said he would definitely be keen to fill Daley's role.

"To be honest, I grew up idolising the era of Laurie so it feels a little rude talking about it on the even or Origin 1," Ennis said. "But when Laurie has decided he has had enough it’s definitely something I would like to do, I love that arena, I love what comes with it, the expectation and the pressure. The level of the players. I would love to do it at the right time."

Rogers: Why Origin debutant can be a great five-eighth

With Ethan Strange set to make his Origin debut for NSW as a five-eighth, Mat Rogers believes he is capable of living up to the occasion.

It’s been a whirlwind couple of days for the 21-year-old who was one of six new faces to join Laurie Daley’s Blues squad as NSW looks to regain the shield.

Initially, the Raiders' half was named on the extended bench.

But with Mitch Moses being ruled out of the series opener with a hamstring injury, Strange has been promoted into the starting line-up, seeing him join Nathan Cleary in the halves.

While there will be plenty of pressure on Strange to perform in front of a packed-out Accor Stadium, the former Queensland representative believes Strange can live up to it.

“He's got every attribute to go down as one of the great number sixes,” Rogers told SEN’s Sportsday with Rat and Jarrod.

“When you consider what Wally Lewis did at Origin, what Laurie Daley did at Origin, what Brad Fittler did, he's got that.

“He's big, he's strong, he's physical, he'll go after it, and he's got one of the greatest, if not the greatest ballplayer inside him (in Nathan Cleary), to steer the ship, and he can just go and play his natural game.

“It might help New South Wales having him there.”