The Socceroos are on the verge of qualifying for the knockouts of a FIFA World Cup™ for only their third time in their history.

With FIFA moving to use head-to-head records before goal difference as a tiebreaker for sides equal on points — the first time that's happened since the 1970 World Cup — it means Turkiye, who lost to Paraguay on Saturday, will finish fourth and Australia at a minimum will finish third in Group D.

As a result, the Socceroos are just under a 90% chance of making it out of the group stage according to Opta.

But given their 2-0 loss to the USA, it rules them out of finishing as group winners.

So, with one more match against Paraguay to go on Friday (AEST time), who could they potentially face in the Round of 32?

Well, we've taken a lay of the land and put together all the possibilities in this handy guide to keep you up to date.

You can listen to Simon Hill and Andy Harper call Australia v Paraguay live from Santa Clara, California, from Friday at 10am AEST on SEN, the official radio broadcaster for the 2026 FIFA World Cup™.

Win against Paraguay

Australia would have a clear separation from Paraguay with six points, which sees them equal the best points total by a senior Australian side at a FIFA World Cup™.

This will see them play their Round of 32 clash in Dallas Stadium on Saturday, July 4 (AEST time) with kick-off at 4am.

That would be against the runner-up of Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand), which is currently a four-way tie, with each side managing one point from their first matches.

If things stayed the same by the end of the group stage, Iran would be the team standing in the way of the Socceroos' first-ever knockout win in the tournament.

However, it should become clearer when Group G play their second round of matches on Monday morning with Belgium v Iran and New Zealand v Egypt.

Potential opponents: Belgium, Egypt, Iran or New Zealand

Draw

Even with four points, Australia would qualify for the knockouts as the second-best team in Group D despite Paraguay having the same amount.

This is due to the Socceroos having a superior goal difference to Paraguay, largely thanks to the USA's 4-1 win against the South American side in their first match.

Again, they would play the runner-up of Group G in Dallas on July 4.

Potential opponents: Belgium, Egypt, Iran or New Zealand

Lose

If Australia suffers the same fate as Turkiye did on Saturday, then their place in the knockouts is dependent on how the rest of the 12 groups finish up.

With the expanded 48-team format and the introduction of the Round of 32, the eight third-place teams with the most points make it through to the second stage of the tournament.

With Australia on three points and a negative goal difference in this scenario (currently on +/-0), they on probability, according to Opta Analyst should progress...so long as it's not a significant defeat.

LIKELIHOOD OF PROGRESSING AS A THIRD PLACE SIDE WITH NEGATIVE GD

• Team with three points and -1 goal difference: 84.2% chance of progressing
• Team with three points and -2 goal difference: 63.4% chance of progressing
• Team with three points and -3 goal difference: 41.8% chance of progressing
• Team with three points and -4 goal difference: 26.9% chance of progressing

Last calculated on June 18

With the third-place finish, they will play a side that topped their group.

But due to the draw, there are only three potential opponents.

That could see them playing on the East Coast in Boston (against the Group E winner), New York, New Jersey (against the Group I winners) or in the central region in Kansas City (against the Group K winner).

Out of those three, the Group E team (consisting of Germany, Ecuador, Curacao and Côte d'Ivoire) is the most likely opponent.

Timezone-wise, the most ideal clash from an Australian perspective would be against Group K.

POTENTIAL DATES FOR ROUND OF 32 GAMES

• Boston - Tuesday, June 30 @ 6:30am
• New York, New Jersey - Wednesday, July 1 @ 7am
• Kansas City - Saturday, July 4 @ 11:30am

all AEST times

Potential opponents: Winner of Group E (currently Germany), Winner of Group I (currently Norway), Winner of Group K (currently Colombia)