Townsend's 5: How NSW and QLD can win Origin decider

SEN's Chad Townsend has broken down the five objectives New South Wales and Queensland must achieve if they are to secure the shield in tomorrow's State of Origin decider.

Queensland head into Game III as deserved favourites having triumphed in Melbourne and leading in Game I until Kalyn Ponga's fateful send off.

All the pressure has been placed on Laurie Daley and New South Wales who must now climb to the top of the rugby league mountain and win the decider at Suncorp Stadium; the centre of Queensland rugby league heartland.

How NSW win:

1. Harry Grant must make 50 tackles

"We need to take juice out of Harry, and, and how do we do that? Well, we need to gear up our middle forwards," Townsend said on SEN 1170 Mornings.

"You look across at our middle forwards, Payne Haas, Mitch Barnett, Hudson Young, Liam Martin, (Isaah) Yeo, then now bench forwards, Murray, Fonua-Blake, Olakau'atu.

"We need to get at Harry Grant wherever we can, and, and we need to make him make plenty of tackles.

"So for me, I'm going to put a KPI on Harry Grant's head, a bounty on his head... 50+ tackles for Harry Grant.

"Harry Grant (in) Game 1, 47 tackles. So, near that 50 margin, right? He would've been working a lot, especially in that last 20 minutes when Queensland only had 12 men on the field, but I need it above 50.

"Game 2, Harry Grant, 30 tackles. Queensland in control, especially with all the ball at the back end of that second half.

"The aim of the game is to make less tackles than the opposition. So for me, I wanna put a bounty on Harry Grant.

"Make him make tackles, get him off the ground, get him in the floor, when he's in the tackle, make him work, right, because then we nullify his opportunities and his threat at dummy half.

2. Target Cameron Munster's inside shoulder in defence

"There's a little bit of a detail around Cameron Munster.

"What I see from Cameron Munster is a little bit of weakness on his inside shoulder, and the thing with Munster is he gives himself a lot of time and space when he's in that defensive line.

"If the defensive line moves up, he gives himself like a step or two behind his back rower, so there's a little bit of a step in the defensive line, where there's a little bit of space.

"And so that's where I want Liam Martin and Haumole Olakau'atu to challenge his inside shoulder.

"Now, what we need Nathan Cleary to do is to go deep into line and take out the back rower, play nice and short, and almost cop a whack in the defensive line.

"That way we'll get that one-on-one momentum into Cam Munster's inside shoulder, and then hopefully that will then allow us to play off the back of that.

3. 120+ Supports

"This part of the game is so important in the modern game.

"You talk about how quick the game is, you talk about the play the ball speed, you talk about the ball in play, and this one is our support play for New South Wales.

"Now game one, we had 107 supports... in game two, we had 86.

"So, a significant drop-off in support play in from Game I and Game II for New South Wales.

"Now this can be for a number of reasons. If your completion rate is poor, you make more tackles, you've got more fatigue when you've got the ball, and then in turn, you don't support.

"Support play for me has always been a selfless act.

"What it does, it just makes the defensive line come up and then have to honour you, and then it can make the ball carrier, it can get them a better run, they can get between defenders, they can throw a dummy and potentially go through.

"But if there's no-one there in support, who are they going to dummy to? They're going to get dominated, they can get numbers in, they can slow down the ruck.

"This support play will allow us to have quicker ruck speed through the middle third of the field.

"So, I want... 120 supports."

4. 85 per cent completion rate

"The last one for the New South Wales team is the completion rate... we're going for 85 per cent.

"They've had an average of 76 per cent so far this series, so an extra 9 per cent will definitely help them."

5. Aerial attack towards Nawaqanitawase and Bostock

Queensland

1. Sam Walker early kicks

"We saw in Game I, a big part of their game was kicking early," Townsend said.

"I want Sam Walker to kick early again. I want him to have the confidence to kick on any tackle, because... you talk about Origin moments and an Origin moment for Sam Walker could be kicking on tackle two.

"Play that eyes up football that you played in the backyard at Ipswich. You are the man to lead the Queenslanders to victory.

"I feel like there's an early try there off Sam Walker for an early kick.

2. 85 per cent completion rate

"The completion rate target for the Queenslanders in Game III is I want them above 85 per cent.

"Usually in the NRL you have a target of about 80 per cent. Origin's a little bit different; there's so much more ball in play.

"They've been pretty impressive so far this series with regards to their completion, or they were in Game II anyway. They had 95 per cent completion... it's absolutely outrageous, so I want them to be above 85 per cent.

3. Ponga to challenge space between half and centre

"I want Kalyn Ponga to challenge that space between the halfback and the centre.

"Now what I mean by that is you see a lot of these block plays with the wide running edge back rowers when they're running those hard lines in the opposition halves, you've got KP swinging out the back.

"If KP can swing out the back... and if he can just take on that space and if he's got a centre who turns it out and turns his shoulders to the sideline, I want him to run.

"That just brings in his show and go, and obviously his ability to just beat defenders.

4. Make Nathan Cleary make 25+ tackles

"The Queenslanders need to take juice out of Nathan Cleary.

"In Game I, he made 11 tackles. He had two misses... that's 5.5 tackles per half, which is absolutely nothing.

"Game two, right? 23 tackles, 10 misses.

"You talk about a difference, more than double the amount of tackles, more than double putting your shoulder in, getting up off the ground, exerting more force, more effort.

"So, the Queenslanders need to take juice out of Cleary. He's a big part of their game plan, and for me, the target for Nathan Cleary is he needs to make more than 25 tackles.

"Kurt Capewell, it's your job to take the juice out of Nathan Cleary, as well as Hammer (Tabuia-Fidow).

5. Big metres from the wingers

"Selwyn Cobbo, he needs to run for 200 metres, and Jojo Fifita, I've got him a target of 180.

"Cobbo so far this series, 199 (metres) in Game II, 181 in Game I.

"And then, Fifita, he had 159 in Game I, 181 in Game II."

SEN has Blues, Maroons, and neutral calls of the Origin decider, live Wednesday 8pm