Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 23, 2026

No Thursday night footy, which was a slight setback, but we get some action on Friday night!

A massive clash in Perth between Fremantle v Adelaide kicks us off, before a stacked Saturday of five fixtures.

The Q-Clash between the Lions and Suns and Hawthorn hosting Collingwood at the MCG are the features.

Sunday has three games including Dogs v Blues from Marvel.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

FREMANTLE v ADELAIDE

Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Fremantle have all but locked up top spot in 2026, presenting a near perfect profile to enter September as the flag favourites. That said, the hard work is far from over. After a dominant season across the board, the Dockers visited the MCG for what many labelled a ‘Grand Final dress rehearsal’… only to be beaten by a strong Melbourne outfit in an instant classic. Alex Pearce returns this week as the Dockers look to mathematically lock down their minor premiership without the injured Murphy Reid.

Wins don’t come worse than Adelaide’s slim victory over Richmond. However, a win is a win, and after edging past the plucky Tigers at Adelaide Oval, the Crows’ hopes of a top six finish are more than alive. Currently sat in fifth place with the Giants to come, one single win and a 60-point season should be enough to launch into September ahead of the Wildcard places. In the week that Taylor Walker announces his retirement, the man of the moment is rested, while his key forward partner Darcy Fogarty returns from suspension.

After a slim win over Richmond, the Crows have plenty to prove ahead of September; not just to themselves, but to the Adelaide faithful. Do the minor premiers of ‘25 have the minerals to compete on the biggest of stages? In fact, this rings as a test of both competing teams, of which neither has progressed beyond a semi final since 2017. These are the matches that matter, and for the Dockers, despite already being a top two lock, wins in September previews mean more now than ever.

They fell short against the Dees; expect a response.

Prediction: Fremantle by 15 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

RICHMOND v ST KILDA

Saturday - 12:35pm AEST - MCG

After beating West Coast in Round 21, the Tigers were agonisingly close to knocking off the Crows in Adelaide last weekend. On a sodden night at the Adelaide Oval, Adem Yze’s side led during the third quarter, only to be put away late by the top-four chasing Crows. They host the Saints in an early 12:35pm kick-off at the MCG today, and will be eager to put on a show for three-time premiership players Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad who play their final games in yellow and black, and Tom Lynch in game 250.

The Saints had their season on the line last Sunday night and it couldn’t have gone worse. Superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera pinged his hamstring early, Mason Wood injured his calf and the likes of Liam Ryan and Tom De Koning were hampered during the disappointing defeat. Mathematically, they can still find a way into the Wildcard Finals Round, but they’d need to win both of their remaining fixtures and hope Carlton, in 10th, lose both of theirs. So while that remains a possibility, expect Ross Lyon to have minds firmly on the job.

The Saints have had their way with the Tigers over the last six seasons. They have won six in a row and eight of the last nine meetings between the two clubs. With nine wins, the Saints have tripled the output of the Tigers this year, showing there is a substantial class gap. While the Tiges will be pumped to send Prestia and Broad off with a bang, they might just struggle to kick a big enough score to beat the Saints.

Prediction: St Kilda by 20 points.

Andrew Slevison

NORTH MELBOURNE v GEELONG

Saturday - 3:45pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

The win last weekend against the Western Bulldogs felt significant, but we have been here before this season in the wake of a rousing win over Gold Coast in Round 11. Kangaroos fans need no reminder of the 124 drubbing at the hands of Fremantle the following week.

Alastair Clarkson would be hoping his group learns their lessons and bring out a similarly compelling showing against a top four hopeful in Geelong. Luke Davies-Uniacke, George Wardlaw and Harry Sheezel are providing plenty of opportunity for their forwards, but can they put together another week of high conversion against a tight Cats defence?

The most successful team in Marvel Stadium history (66% win-rate) makes its first trip to the stadium today for the year running hot off the back of four consecutive wins. With Richmond awaiting next week, a win here would send them into finals with a genuine wave of momentum behind them.

In tumultuous weeks like this - as the club administration deals with the Jake Kolodjashnij situation – sometimes the best thing is to get to game day and put in a solid performance to eradicate some tension. I sense a big performance on the way.

The longest current win-streak in the AFL is Geelong over North Melbourne, having won the last 15 games against them at an average margin of 49 points. However, the Kangas just broke a streak of nine losses to the Dogs and will feel reformed from their old selves, baying for yet another drought-breaking win to keep their slim wildcard chances alive.

This is a tougher ask for North than last week’s Bulldogs outfit, but they will be hoping to bring some form into it to turn around recent history. Cats are on fire and will be hard to stop, however, and will not be taking this one lightly on their march to challenge for top four.

Prediction: Geelong by 31 points.

Ethan Clark

BRISBANE v GOLD COAST

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Gabba

Another Q-Clash with the Lions entering as favourites...

Brisbane bounced back from their disappointing Round 21 loss to Carlton with a statement Round 22 victory over Hawthorn at home.

The final margin read every bit of 67 points as the Lions stamped themselves against a fellow top four contender. With a fairly healthy injury list and a top gear which can beat anyone on their day, the Lions are well in the hunt go back-to-back-to-back should they win their last two games and lock in a double chance come September.

Their opposition the Gold Coast broke a 10-game losing streak last Sunday against the GWS, prevailing by two points. Matt Rowell was the man who made things happen for Damien Hardwick’s side in Canberra, enjoying a game of the season contender with 40 disposals, 17 clearances and 16 tackles.

While the Suns’ season is over from a finals perspective, they’ll be putting everything into this clash against their local rivals, particularly given that they’ve only beaten the Lions in two of their last 16 attempts.

While Gold Coast finally got back onto the winners’ list in Round 22, this is a whole different kettle of fish. The Lions will be beginning their push from here for another flag, and you wouldn’t expect them to rest on their laurels ahead of September.

Gold Coast can match Brisbane on ball, but the Lions have the upper hand in every other aspect. Expect Chris Fagan’s side to simply get this done as they look to keep fellow top four challengers at bay.

Prediction: Brisbane by 29 points.

Lachlan Geleit

HAWTHORN v COLLINGWOOD

Saturday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

A Saturday night blockbuster at the MCG with intriguing form lines.

The Hawks were smacked by the Lions in Brisbane last week, going down by 67 points which came after four straight wins. An anomaly perhaps?

The Magpies were workmanlike in holding off the Eagles in Perth, bouncing back from the Round 21 defeat to Geelong. Before that they’d won six on the trot.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Maggies handle yet another big occasion following the retirement announcement of icon Steele Sidebottom. As is normally the case, the moment likely won’t get to such a professional outfit.

This fixture features two of the smartest coaches in the game in Sam Mitchell and Craig McRae. The tactics will be fascinating following on from the only draw of the 2026 season which occurred between these two back in Round 8.

Given what’s at stake - top four for the Hawks, potential top six for the Pies - it’s fair to say this one will go the distance.

Of their six defeats this year, the Hawks have bounced back each time they’ve gone under by four goals or more. They were so poor last Friday night, so we reckon they’ll recoil with so much on the line.

The system of this beautifully-coached Pies side will keep them in it until the end, but we’re with the Hawks to record a narrow victory.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 8 points.

Andrew Slevison

PORT ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE

Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

The Demons are well and truly flying high after knocking off the ladder-leading Dockers by four points at the MCG on Saturday.

That game showed us that Melbourne can absolutely match it with the best teams in the league and could potentially go all the way this September.

Port Adelaide on the other hand are sitting in the bottom four and may potentially be without Jason Horne-Francis after suffering a knee injury against the Swans – an out which could see Port without their three best players in Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and the Hornet.

Interestingly about Josh Carr’s men is they have conceded the eight-least points this season – a better record than the Dees, who have conceded 114 more points.

However, Port Adelaide’s inability to score is clear. They have scored 439 points less than Melbourne, and have only scored more points than Essendon, Richmond and West Coast – a statistic which doesn’t exactly scream “tip me” for the Power.

And this is ultimately where the game will be won. The Dees love a high-scoring shootout, and Port Adelaide just simply cannot match that challenge.

If you are looking for an exciting player to watch in this game, look for the scintillating Kysaiah Pickett. Given that Port Adelaide doesn’t really tag, expect Kozzy to put on yet another mouth-watering performance!

The gap in quality between these sides is obvious, and Melbourne should likely take home the four points. Also throw in the fact that Port’s season is essentially over, given they cannot make a wildcard spot, and Melbourne are pushing for a top four finish, all signs are pointing one way… a Demons domination.

Prediction: Melbourne by 39 points.

Connor Scanlon

GWS v WEST COAST

Sunday - 1:40pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium

For the first time since 2014, the Giants have been handed back-to-back losses against their expansion rival, which has all but ended their hopes of making it into the Wildcard.

In a wet and cold clash in the nation’s capital, the Suns would scrap over the line in a two-point win. This loss, coupled with 10th-place Carlton going two games clear, means the Giants must win out and have results go their way to maintain their perfect finals appearance streak under Adam Kingsley.

They will have to do so without starting 23 members in Jayden Laverde and Xavier O’Halloran, who are out with injuries for the all-important clash against West Coast.

Against a depleted Collingwood side, the Eagles pushed the Magpies all the way, which saw them lead the majority of the second quarter. But despite their best efforts, they recorded their fifth consecutive loss against the black and white and their ninth loss since their last win in Round 12.

Harley Reid is expected to play against the Giants despite having had an injury concern, with former Giant Matt Flynn being recalled to the squad alongside Hamish Davis and Harry Schoenberg.

The Giants come as favourites into this match. But it’s not the first time we’ve said that about GWS before proceeding to lose as they did against the Eagles in Round 10. But West Coast will have their own challenges coming over to the Harbour City, having only won one match at ENGIE Stadium since Nick Naitanui’s last-gasp goal back in 2016. However, the Giants' quality alongside home ground advantage should see the Big, Big Sound secure the four premiership points.

Prediction: GWS by 28 points.

Nicholas Quinlan

WESTERN BULLDOGS v CARLTON

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

This matchup looms as a potential Wildcard preview with the 9th placed Bulldogs looking vulnerable and the 10th placed Blues firing on all cylinders.

‘Fraseball’ is surely set to stay with interim coach Josh Fraser putting his hand up for the top job having turned Carlton’s season around with an impressive 10-2 record. Carlton proved too strong for St Kilda and their transition from defensive 50 to attacking 50 continues to cause headaches for opposition.

Fraser is also undefeated under the roof at Marvel with a 5-0 record. Despite this not being a Blues home game, it will likely still feel like one. Luke Beveridge will be wary of this, particularly following an embarrassing loss to North Melbourne in primetime last Thursday.

The Bulldogs have struggled to recapture the form that saw them start the season 4-0, albeit they have been hindered by numerous injuries to key players. It doesn’t get any easier with the full extent of Tim English’s MCL injury still to be determined. He won’t be available this week and neither will Bailey Dale or Connor Budarick who are aiming for Round 24 returns, while Marcus Bontempelli has been rested. Meanwhile, Jacob Weitering looms as a potential huge inclusion for the Blues.

At the start of the year, these two sides were on the opposite ends of the ladder. Now it looks like Carlton are going to leapfrog the Dogs as they continue their incredible resurgence to September footy.

Prediction: Carlton by 15 points.

Harry Cumming

ESSENDON v SYDNEY

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - MCG

Is it possible to say that the 2nd place Swans are flying under the radar?

With Fremantle dominating at the top, Brisbane back in the top four again and surprise packets Melbourne and Carlton surging, Sydney have been overlooked in recent weeks.

After a couple of poor losses, the Swans have won three games on the bounce. They easily accounted for the Giants, St Kilda and Port Adelaide by an average margin of 58 points. One more win will sew up 2nd spot on the ladder, which means if all goes according to plan the Swans will play two finals at the SCG before heading to Melbourne for the Grand Final.

The Bombers haven’t beaten Sydney at the SCG since Round 2 of 2020 and face a significant challenge against the strength of the Swans’ midfield. Angus Clarke is set to return from concussion protocols, however both Sullivan Robey and Jordan Ridley have been ruled out for the rest of the season.

The Bombers’ depth has been tested all year with injuries continuing to hinder any real growth and development for the club. Consequently, there have been more opportunities for players stuck in the VFL and Vigo Visentini proved last week he belongs at the top level. In just his third game, the young ruckman impressed with 18 disposals and 33 hitouts against Geelong. It might be enough for him to hold his spot despite Nick Bryan being available to return.

For Bombers fans, the end of the season will bring welcome relief after another tumultuous year. Sydney, however, are just getting started. Don’t underestimate their finals credentials with plenty of players hungry to right the wrongs of previous Grand Finals.

Prediction: Sydney by 62 points.

Harry Cumming