Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Semi Finals

Only five games remain in the 2026 season, and this weekend we have two huge Semi-Finals.

Things begin on Friday with Fremantle hosting Geelong at Optus Stadium. Will the Dockers be the second consecutive minor premier knocked out in straight sets? There's a real chance of that given the strength of their opposition in Geelong.

That game is then followed up on Saturday night at the Gabba, with Brisbane hosting after being embarrassed by Sydney in their Qualifying Final.

While the Lions go in hot favourites, the Crows will be buoyed with confidence on the back of their first finals victory since 2017.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

FREMANTLE v GEELONG

Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Are the Dockers destined for straight sets, or can they regather against the Cats?

Freo were stunned in their Qualifying Final to Hawthorn, going down at Optus Stadium for the first time in 2026.

The minor premiers had no answers for the Hawks’ pressure and could only muster five goals, if the Cats can execute a similar level of heat, they are well and truly in this.

The Dockers have also now lost three of their last five games. Is this a sign that they peaked too early, or can they regather and push again for the flag? With a clean bill of health and another home final, they won’t get many better chances.

As for Geelong, they took care of Carlton in their Elimination Final, running over the top of their opposition in the second half to win by 33 points.

The Cats are currently flying in attack, scoring at least 95 in all of their last seven games. They have also won all of those matches.

The Cats, like Freo, are relatively healthy from an injury perspective. They’ll believe, but this won’t be an easy task against the minor premiers on the road.

Looking purely at form, the pick would be Geelong, but are we willing to tip Fremantle to exit in straight sets? It’s a massive call to have them losing twice at home in finals after going unblemished at Optus Stadium during the home and away season.

If Fremantle clean up their ball movement, they’ll back themselves to get the job done, but if the Cats keep their high octane scoring up, they’ll know they can pull off a finals heist.

Prediction: Fremantle by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit

BRISBANE v ADELAIDE

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Gabba

The Lions were on the receiving end of a 53-point Qualifying Final hiding at the hands of the Swans at a supercharged SCG last Saturday. 141 was the second biggest score the Lions have copped since 2018 (the most being 154 against Carlton this year). It was a second straight qualifying final defeat for the back-to-back premiers who lost to Geelong at the same stage last season, before winning the flag. They now host Adelaide after signing Crows target Zac Bailey for a mammoth eight seasons during the week.

After a straight sets exit as minor premiers last year, the Crows won their Elimination Final against the Western Bulldogs last weekend. It was a grinding 22-point win at home which was their first finals triumph since the 2017 Preliminary Final. Izak Rankine was again immense with another 34 disposals and two goals, while Josh Worrell produced a career-best performance with 34 of his own touches and 10 marks. The Crows won, so Matthew Nicks kept his job. Next up is an unenviable trip to the Gabba to take on a wounded Lions side on their home deck.

This is the first finals clash between these two clubs since the 2003 Semi-Final when the Lions won by 42 points at the Gabba. Chris Fagan’s reigning premiers have won three of the past five meetings, which includes a draw. The Crows lost to the Lions by 52 points in Round 7 – their heaviest defeat of 2026 - which came under emotional circumstances.

On the personnel front, the Lions have made one change by replacing the injured Noah Answerth with Ty Gallop. The Crows have also made one change with Zac Taylor replacing Isaac Cumming.

Brisbane’s best footy remains the best in the league and with that in mind we will keep the faith. It’s no certainty but they could kick away late after a tight tussle to book their spot in a fifth straight prelim.

Prediction: Brisbane by 26 points.

Andrew Slevison